Publications

What role does conflict play in fertilizer use and maize yield response in Nigeria?

While increased use of inorganic fertilizer has been recommended to achieve increased maize productivity, studies on the effects of violent conflicts have also demonstrated the possible moderating influence of conflict on agricultural input use. However, the various pathways and extent through which affects fertilizer use and maize yield response to fertilizer use remain poorly understood. In this study, we used the ACLED geocoded longitudinal dataset based on the Nigeria LSMS-ISA panel survey to assess the impact of violent conflicts on fertilizer use and maize yield response in Nigeria. Understanding this effect of conflict on fertilizer use and maize yield response could be relevant to better understand smallholders resource use decisions in the context of other countries experiencing similar violent and serves as building block for understanding how factors outside the control of agronomic field experiments affect economic incentives for fertilizer use and yield of smallholder farmers.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline process evaluation report

This process evaluation (PE) is part of a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) of the use of a new pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria, a project led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). While the IE draws from a representative sample of 1,399 farmers to determine the causal impacts of the use of PBR cowpea, the PE complements the IE by exploring in detail the potential adoption of the PBR cowpea variety and the reasons for adoption or non adoption, including its potential impacts on actors throughout the value chain. A program impact pathway (PIP) is the basis of this PE. The PIP identifies how impacts emerge from program inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes to highlight barriers and facilitators of adoption. Given that this PE was conducted before the rollout of PBR cowpea in the IE, the analysis focuses on the potential of this innovative seed to achieve positive outputs and outcomes based on the PIP. Qualitative data were gathered from eight focus group discussions with farmers and 180 semi-structured interviews conducted with farmers, extension agents, seed dealers, and cowpea traders from eight local government areas (LGAs) in the states of Adamawa and Kwara. Given that the data are qualitative, the data are not representative. However, important insights were found that can help guide the IE.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline report

Nigeria is the largest consumer and producer of cowpea in Africa. Produced predominantly by smallholder farmers, cowpea is relied on by millions of Nigerians and is one of their main sources of affordable protein. Despite cowpea’s economic relevance (Nwagboso et al. 2024; Phillip et al. 2019), cowpea yields in Nigeria have barely grown over the last 20 years. One of the main abiotic constraints of the crop is the pod-borer insect (Maruca vitrata), which can cause damages of up to 80 percent. Given that conventional breeding has not been successful in addressing this constraint, local and international efforts over the last decades focused on developing a pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea. The culmination of these efforts in Nigeria was the commercial release of the PBR cowpea variety SAMPEA-20T in late 2019. This is a significant milestone, as it was the first transgenic food crop to be approved for cultivation in Nigeria. In its programming under the “Feed the Future Innovative Maize and Cowpea Technologies to Increase Food and Nutrition Security in Africa” activity, implemented by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) aims for an adoption rate of PBR cowpea in Nigeria of 25 percent by 2025, with yield gains of 20 percent and accompanying reductions in pesticide applications. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) Program for Biosafety Systems (PBS) is leading a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) project, funded by USAID. The study goal is to generate causal evidence of the use of the PBR cowpea variety and its consequential household and farm impacts and associated value chain effects. In a collaboration with IFPRI’s Nigeria Country Office, PBS is leading and coordinating the overall study while the IFPRI-Nigeria Country Office designs and implements the quantitative and qualitative approaches to the evaluation. IFPRI has worked with technology developers, the AATF and its partners (including private local seed companies), to ensure access to necessary data and cooperation by the evaluation team, while maintaining the team’s independence. To ensure such required independence, the evaluation team has separated the cooperation in implementing the evaluation (including distributing inputs) from the data analysis. The evaluation team will continue to maintain its independence in the methodological approach and the analysis of the results from the implemented randomized controlled trial (RCT), adhering to international standards.

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline data collection training manual for enumerators

School feeding programs have emerged as promising multi-sectoral interventions that not only provide food to 368 million children annually, but could also improve diets, stimulate agricultural productivity for smallholders, and increase their incomes through "home-grown" school feeding procurement models. There is limited rigorous evidence on the effects of smallholder participation in school feeding markets and the trade-offs within different pro-smallholder procurement approaches. In parallel, many smallholders in Africa face market constraints and lack market orientation for commercializing production. The impact evaluation (IE) of the home-grown school feeding program on smallholder sales and revenues: an effectiveness trial in Osun State, Nigeria is a one-year (2023 – 2024) form project implemented by IFPRI and other key stakeholders including the World Food Programme (WFP). The IE will randomly select schools from which the cooks in the selected schools will receive training (the treatment group) and those from schools in non-participant areas that receive no training. The IE will evaluate key outcomes related to the proportion of smallholder farmers selling their agricultural products to schools as well as to traditional markets; farmers’ sales volume of locally grown agricultural outputs to both the market and schools (cooks); farmers’ sales revenue from locally produced agricultural outputs to both the market and cooks; cost per unit of school meal to schools and cooks; menu quality and quantity assessment; awareness of food safety and accessibility to fresh produce; subjective evaluation of hygiene standards; empowerment and well-being initiatives for women.

The economic importance of cowpea in Nigeria trends and Implications for achieving agri-food system transformation

Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world and one of the highest consumers. This paper documents the challenges in cowpea production and consumption, export, and import trends in Nigeria. The critical and comparative review reveals several important insights. Cowpea is important for households and communities due to its substantial contributions to food security, nutrition, and revenue production. It plays a pivotal role in supporting various stakeholders involved in the value chain, including producers, processors, traders, and food vendors. Thus, cowpea is a crucial multipurpose crop. Although Nigeria is the largest producer of cowpea in the world, with a total production of 3.6 million tons in 2021, the demand for cowpea surpasses its supply due to factors such as the country's large population and low productivity. We describe the main challenges encountered in Nigeria's cowpea production, encompassing a range of issues such as high susceptibility to pests and diseases from planting to storage phases, low adoption of improved cowpea seed varieties, poor soil fertility, drought, and heat stress. The data suggest that low input use, low-yield varieties, and low productivity characterize the current level of cowpea production. Our findings suggest the need for tailored strategies to support the adoption of improved cowpea varieties in Nigeria to increase domestic production, adherence to quality standards, exploration of international markets for export opportunities, and ultimately, household income and improve nutritional outcomes.

Seed certification and maize, rice, and cowpea productivity in Nigeria

Despite the potential importance of seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, many governments in sub-Saharan Africa lack the capacity to expand quality assurance systems even where there is expressed interest. This brief summarizes the key insights from a recent study in Nigeria. The evidence points toward the benefits of pursuing balanced, flexible seed quality assurance systems rather than focusing singularly on expanding rigorous seed certification systems, as the country has done until recently. These recommendations are based on findings from the 2010–2018 period in Nigeria: Increased supply of certified seeds of maize, rice, and cowpea had positive effects on farm-level use of certified seeds, yields, and output, but these effects diminished as certified seed supply continued to expand. Moreover, yield gains from certified seeds tend to vary considerably across locations. As certified seed becomes more available to farmers, its use spreads from higher-return farms to lower-return farms, diminishing overall productivity benefits. These results are consistent with the view that singularly expanding rigorous seed certification faces diminishing returns. More balanced, pluralistic systems that also allow for moderate quality assurance, such as quality declared seed (QDS), may be worth trying in Nigeria.

Exploring how land inheritance shapes youth migration and work choices in rural Nigeria

Policymakers in Nigeria and other countries in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) are relying on agriculture to generate employment for the growing youth population. However, there is concern that youth engagement in agricultural production is declining in favor of other economic activities. “Rural-urban-rural” migra tion occurs mainly during intercrop intervals, as the cyclical nature of crop-related activities prompts African youth to seek more economic stability from nonagricultural employment during the off season (Yeboah and Jayne 2018). While comprehensive data on youth’s departure from Nigeria’s agriculture sector remain elusive, various studies indicate a heightened exit rate, particularly post-discovery of oil resources, and a notable 63 percent reduction in the time Nigerian youth spend in farming activities compared to adults (UNECA 2017). In general, discourse on youth unemployment, with specific pertinence to Africa, underscores the pivotal role of different economic structural transformations that are hindering the formation of “quality” employment opportunities (McMillan, Rodrik, and Verduzco-Gallo 2014).

Enhancing climate resilience in Nigerian agriculture: Implications for sustainable adaptation and livelihood diversification

Key Highlights:
Changes in temperature, measured in harmful degree days (HDDs), and precipitation have a significant negative impact on agricultural productivity in Nigeria, which highlights the adverse effects of extreme weather on crop yields.
Climate changes affect income sources for farming households. We found that an increase in HDDs reduces households’ income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, implying threats to household food security for smallholders whose livelihoods depend on subsistence farming and food consumption from own sources.
In response to the risks posed by climate change, farmers adopt changes in crop mixes (for example, reducing the share of land allocated to cereals) and input use decisions (for example, reducing fertilizer use and purchased seeds) as an adaptation strategy. Adaption strategies that lead to low use of yield-enhancing modern inputs could worsen agricultural productivity and household food insecurity. However, we found that farmers in Nigeria respond to extreme climate by switching to drought tolerant root or tuber crops. Such strategies could partially offset the adverse effects of climatic shocks on households’ welfare.
Climate changes negatively impact agricultural productivity for both poor and non-poor households, but the effects are more pronounced among poorer households, according to our heterogenous effects analysis on household’s initial endowments (based on wealth indicators measured in asset and livestock holdings). This implies low adaptive capacity on the part of poor households and thus their high vulnerability to climate-related shocks.
Suggested policy recommendations include interventions to incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, targeted pro-poor interventions such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders’ access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital, such as land and other productive assets.

Rethinking food crisis responses: The Nigeria presentation of IFPRI's 2023 Global Food Policy Report & the launch of the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict & Migration (FCM)

The purpose of this report is to describe work presented and discussions resulting from an event jointly convened by the CGIAR Research Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration (FCM) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in Abuja, Nigeria on May 11, 2023. The event, titled “Rethinking food Crisis Responses,” drew many participants from Nigerian civil society, government, and the private sector, in addition to representatives of international organizations, local and international NGOs, and the donor community. This report was prepared by researchers from CGIAR, FCM, and IFPRI, reflecting on the insights shared, lessons learned, and collective discussions of the optimal next steps .

Climate change, income sources, crop mix, and input use decisions: Evidence from Nigeria

This paper combines panel data from nationally representative household-level surveys in Nigeria with long-term satellite-based spatial data on temperature and precipitation using geo-referenced information related to households. It aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, income shares, crop mix, and input use decisions. We measure climate change in harmful degree days, growing degree days, and changes in precipitation using long-term (30 year) changes in temperature and precipitation anomalies during the crop calendars. We find that, controlling for other factors, a 15% (one standard deviation) increase in change in harmful degree days leads to a decrease in agricultural productivity of 5.22% on average. Similarly, precipitation change has resulted in a significant and negative impact on agricultural productivity. Our results further show that the change in harmful degree days decreases the income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, while it increases the income share from livestock and wage employment. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that farmers change their crop mix and input use to respond to climate changes, for instance reducing fertilizer use and seed purchases as a response to increases in extreme heat. Based on our findings, we suggest policy interventions that incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, such as small-scale irrigation and livelihood diversification. We also propose targeted pro-poor interventions, such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders' access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital such as land and other productive assets.

Anticipatory cash transfers for climate resilience: Findings from a randomized experiment in northeast Nigeria

This paper presents the findings from an experimental study designed to assess the impacts of one-off large lump sum cash transfers on food security, climate adaptive actions, and climate resilience of smallholders in climate-risk and conflict-affected communities in northeast Nigeria. This pilot intervention was supported by Google.org and implemented by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) in collaboration with the international Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The central hypothesis of the intervention was that when climate vulnerable communities have timely access to information and the financial and social resources to act upon that information, they will avoid negative coping strategies and build more diversified and climate resilient livelihoods. A one-off lump sum of anticipatory cash was transferred to a randomly sampled treatment households in flood-prone areas in northeast Nigeria when triggered by the climate data risk thresholds. Comparable households in a control group received an equal amount of cash post-flooding shock. The main purpose of the study was to assess the impacts of anticipatory cash against the traditional humanitarian post-shocks supporting mechanism. We collected baseline and endline data from a sample of 1450 experimental households (725 ‘treatment’ and 725 ‘control’) and analyzed the data using econometric models. Several outcome indicators including food security, climate adaptive and resilience actions, and wellbeing measures were used to assess the intervention. The results indicate that anticipatory cash has significant impacts on increasing the number of pre-emptive climate adaptive actions and enhancing future resilience to climate shocks. On other hand, anticipatory cash transfers do not seem to have significant impacts on short-term food and non-food consumption expenditures compared to post-shock cash transfers. Our findings indicate that one-off large sum anticipatory transfer could lead households to build their climate resilience capacity, and hence a promising intervention to reduce the vulnerability of households to future climate shocks. Based on the findings we have two key recommendations: (1) Given the generally positive findings on household’s climate adaptive and climate resilience capacity, we suggest humanitarian agencies and governments to consider anticipatory interventions such as anticipatory cash transfers as a mechanism for both meeting basic needs and improving climate resilience of households if quality data and analytics exist to predict a high probability of climate shocks. (2) As climate shocks continue to worsen and humanitarian funding needs remain unmet for both emergencies and early recovery, anticipatory approach may be critical to meeting the short- and long-term needs of climate- and conflict-affected households.

Climate change, income sources, crop mix, and input use decisions: Evidence from Nigeria

This paper combines panel data from nationally representative household-level surveys in Nigeria with long-term satellite-based spatial data on temperature and precipitation using geo-referenced information related to households. It aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, income shares, crop mix, and input use decisions. We measure climate change in harmful degree days, growing degree days, and changes in precipitation using long-term (30 year) changes in temperature and precipitation anomalies during the crop calendars. We find that, controlling for other factors, a 15 percent (one standard deviation) increase in change in harmful degree days leads to a decrease in agricultural productivity of 5.22 percent on average. Similarly, precipitation change has resulted in a significant and negative impact on agricultural productivity. Our results further show that the change in harmful degree days decreases the income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, while it increases the income share from livestock and wage employment. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that farmers change their crop mix and input use to respond to climate changes, for instance reducing fertilizer use and seed purchases as a response to increases in extreme heat. Based on our findings, we suggest policy interventions that incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, such as small-scale irrigation and livelihood diversification. We also propose targeted pro-poor interventions, such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders’ access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital such as land and other productive assets.

COVID‑19, food insecurity and dietary diversity of households: Survey evidence from Nigeria

The policy measures of the government of Nigeria to restrain the spread of COVID-19, particularly in the initial three months (April – June 2020) led to significant disruptions to household livelihoods and food security. We investigate the effects of COVID-19 on food security and dietary diversity of households; focusing on the pathways through which income loss, endowments of wealth, social capital, and safety net programs moderate the severity of households’ food security and dietary diversity. Primary data obtained from a telephone survey of 1,031 Nigerian households were analyzed using ordered logit and negative binomial models. Our results show that income losses due to the COVID-19 restrictive measures had pushed households into a more severe food insecurity and less diverse nutritional outcomes. Regarding wealth effects, livestock ownership significantly cushioned households from falling into a more severe food insecurity amid the pandemic. We found that because of the pandemic’s indiscriminate effect across communities, the potential of social capital as an informal support mechanism might have been eroded to enable households to cope with shocks. Furthermore, safety net programs by the government and NGOs did not provide significant protection to households from falling into severe food insecurity and malnutrition amid the pandemic. We suggest three policy propositions – prioritize investment in local job creation to curb income loss; build the wealth base of households (e.g., land tenure security or livestock) to enhance resilience to shocks; and target safety nets and other social support programs spatially, temporally, and across social groups to enhance the effectiveness of such programs amid shocks.

Subnational public expenditures, short-term household-level welfare, and economic flexibility: Evidence from Nigeria

Public expenditures (PEs) are critical for key public-sector functions that contribute to the development and welfare improvements. PE for agriculture, as well as social-sector PE, such as health, education, and social welfare, have been considered instrumental for income growth, poverty reduction, investment, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. However, direct evidence in developing countries like Nigeria has been relatively limited. We fill this knowledge gap by estimating the effects of subnational PE shares for agriculture, health, education, and social welfare, as well as PE size, on household-level outcomes, using nationally representative panel household data and district––as well as state-level PE data in Nigeria, and a production-function-based indicator of “flexibility.” We find that greater PE shares for agriculture, health, and social welfare, conditional on PE size, have positive effects on consumption, poverty reduction, and nonfarm business. A greater PE share for agriculture, unlike the PE shares for health or social welfare, also enhances household dietary diversity and economic flexibility between farming and nonfarm activities, an indicator of economic resilience. These effects appear to materialize through the positive impacts on agriculture. Such multidimensional benefits of greater PE for agriculture are worth attention in countries like Nigeria, which tends to allocate a lower PE share for agriculture compared to other comparable countries in Africa and elsewhere.

Nigeria: Impacts of the Ukraine and global crises on poverty and food security

Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1). Wide variation exists across products, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent and rice prices declining by 13 percent. The price of crude oil and natural gas has also risen substantially, while the weighted average price of fertilizer has dou-bled. With these changes in global prices, many developing countries and their development part-ners are concerned about the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty.

Food consumption–production response to agricultural policy and macroeconomic change in Nigeria

Achieving agricultural transformation and farmer resilience in resource‐dependent developing countries like Nigeria is complicated by volatile macroeconomic conditions, which disrupt agricultural supply chains through income, foreign exchange, and risk‐mitigation effects. This study examines the food consumption–production linkage in Nigeria at a time when the national Agricultural Transformation Agenda was implemented and an economic crisis was unfolding. Many farm households responded to expected shocks by planting more staple foods for own consumption at the expense of agricultural commercialization, income growth, and dietary diversification. A policy initiative to improve access to modern farm inputs appeared to mitigate these adverse effects.

Roles of public expenditures and public investments on the demand and productivity of agricultural inputs/services: Some insights from Nigeria

Knowledge gaps remain as to how longer-term public investments (PI) such as agricultural research and development (R&D), and short-term interventions through other public expenditures in agriculture (PEA) complement each other in enhancing productivity and efficiency in the agrifood sector. This study attempts to partly fill this gap by using nationally representative panel household survey data, subnational PEA data, locations of national agricultural R&D, and various spatial agroclimatic data in Nigeria. The analyses generally indicate that marginal returns to agricultural inputs/services (fertilizer, agricultural mechanization, irrigation, extension, agricultural equipment, and family labor) often increase by PI that raise overall agroclimatic similarity (AS) (through R&D locations), as well as increase PEA-share by subnational governments. There is often complementarity between these PI and PEA, particularly for extension services, investment in agricultural equipment, irrigation, and in the northern part of the country. Promoting further adoptions of modern inputs/services, increasing PEA-share, and selecting PI for agricultural R&D given in-country variations in agroclimatic conditions can help raise agricultural profitability and incomes in Nigeria.

COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services exacerbate food insecurity in Nigeria

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown policies have disrupted education, health, and nutrition services globally, with severe implications for children’s well-being. As the pandemic spread, more than 190 countries implemented countrywide school closures, affecting 1.6 billion children around the world. In addition to the direct effects on learning, these closures affect household food security by interrupting school feeding services.

Improving livelihoods through postharvest loss management: Evidence from Nigeria

Project factsheet: Overcoming barriers to women’s political participation through advocacy training: Designing a field experiment in Nigeria

This factsheet describes a planned project in Nigeria, working with existing partners, that will provide useful recommendations for empowering women in the public sphere. It has the potential to inform implementation of the National Gender in Agriculture prepared by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and programming by the Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development (MWASD) by sharing specific lessons on how to harness women’s social capital and leadership skills to promote more equitable agricultural and development policies. The project pairs an intervention aimed at generating leadership skills, a sense of collective efficacy, and effective participation in local politics among women’s groups in Nigeria with a rigorous randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand what works and how to give women a voice in their communities. It builds on programming by ActionAid Nigeria, our implementing partner; we will further refine this programming through qualitative work and embed it in a theory of change. ActionAid Nigeria prioritizes the leadership of women, especially those living in poverty and exclusion.

Have households’ livelihoods and food security rebounded from COVID-19 shocks in Nigeria? Results from a follow-up phone survey

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on households’ income, jobs, and food security have continued despite perceptible reductions in transmission and lifting of restrictive measures in several countries. To assess these effects on Nigerian households, we collected household data in the initial three months after the outbreak of the pandemic (July 2020). To track the changes since the first survey, we conducted a follow-up phone survey with the same households a year later (July 2021). We undertook a comparative analysis between the two surveys focusing on key variables such as income loss, job loss, food security, and dietary diversity. The study also investigated how changes in income, wealth/endowments, social capital, safety net programs, and recurrent conflicts affected the severity of food insecurity amid the pandemic. We found that both income and jobs have rebounded significantly (by 50 percentage points) compared to the baseline results. In terms of food insecurity, households with “severely food insecure” situations dropped from 73 percent in the first survey to 65 percent in the follow-up survey. We also found a 5-percentage point improvement in the household dietary diversity scale in the follow-up survey. However, households reported an increase of more than 70 percent in conflicts or insecurity threats amid the pandemic. This affected farm investment decisions in 44 percent of smallholder farmers surveyed. While income loss significantly worsened households’ food insecurity; livestock ownership and social capital cushioned households from falling into a more severe food insecurity situation. However, safety net programs provided by the government and NGOs did not significantly protect households from falling into severe food insecurity amid the pandemic. We suggest four propositions: prioritize investment in job creation to curb income loss; enable households to build their wealth base (e.g., land tenure security or livestock) to enhance resilience to shocks; revisit targeting approaches of safety net programs to enhance effectiveness of such programs; and finally, devise and implement conflict resolutions to induce investment and enhance productivity.

Transforming Nigeria’s agrifood system: Wealthier, but also healthier

Malnutrition, largely attributable to poor diets among both the rich and poor, presents a growing challenge in Nigeria. This brief considers the obstacles to food security and better nutrition, particularly the country’s macroeconomic instability, widespread poverty, and the need for greater investment and coherence to support dietary diversity. The authors describe how a shift to focus on consumer needs can transform the agrifood system to deliver healthier and more affordable diets for all Nigerians, as well as better and more secure rural livelihoods.

Synopsis: Subnational public expenditures, short term household level welfare, and economic resilience: Evidence from Nigeria

This study estimates the effects of the shares of subnational public expenditure (PE) for agriculture, health, education, and social-welfare, as well as PE-size, on household-level outcomes, using nationally representative panel household data and district and state-level PE data for Nigeria. We find that greater shares of total PE allocated to agriculture, health, and social-welfare, conditional on PE-size, generally have positive effects on household consumption levels, poverty reduction, and non-farm business capital investments by households. A greater share of total PE for agriculture also positively benefits household dietary diversity across seasons. Moreover, household economic resilience, measured in terms of the economic flexibility a household has to shift between farming and non-farm activities, is more greatly enhanced through greater shares of total PE going towards agriculture than to health and social-welfare. These multi-dimensional benefits of greater PE for agriculture are particularly worthy of attention in countries, like Nigeria, which have historically allocated a low share of total PE to agriculture.

Subnational public expenditures, short-term household-level welfare, and economic resilience: Evidence from Nigeria

Public expenditures (PE) are critical for key public sector functions that contribute to development and welfare improvements, including the provisions of necessary public goods and the mitigation of market failures. PE in social sectors, such as health, education, and social welfare, and in agriculture have been increasingly recognized as potentially important for income growth, poverty reduction, fostering increased private investment, improved nutritional outcomes, and greater economic resilience. Furthermore, the importance of the impact of subnational PE on these outcomes has also been recognized, as appropriately decentralized PE systems can potentially achieve greater effectiveness by enabling public sector support that is tailored more to local needs. However, direct evidence of these developmental effects of decentralized PE in developing countries like Nigeria has been relatively limited. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the effects of shares of total subnational PE for agriculture, health, education, and social welfare, as well as PE size, on household-level outcomes using nationally-representative panel household data and both local government area and higher state-level PE data for Nigeria. We find that greater shares of total PE for agriculture, health, and social welfare, conditional on PE size, generally have positive effects on consumption, poverty reduction, and non-farm business capital investments. A greater share of total PE for agriculture benefits a broader range of outcomes than do greater shares of total PE for health and social welfare. These include improving certain nutritional outcomes, like household dietary diversity across seasons, and economic flexibility between farm and non-farm activities, which may be particularly important for building resilience in today’s rapidly changing socioeconomic environment due to shocks, including COVID19. Such multi-dimensional benefits of greater PE for agriculture are particularly worthy of attention in countries like Nigeria, which have historically allocated a lower share of total PE to agriculture than to health and other social welfare sectors and a lower share of total PE to agriculture compared to that allocated to agriculture in similar countries in Africa and elsewhere.

Polygynous family structure and child undernutrition in Nigeria

COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services exacerbate food insecurity in Nigeria

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and associated lockdown measures have disrupted educational and nutrition services globally. Understanding the overall and differential impacts of disruption of nutritional (school feeding) services is critical for designing effective post-COVID-19 recovery policies. Objectives: The aim of this study was to examine the impact of COVID-19-induced disruption of school feeding services on household food security in Nigeria. Methods: We combined household-level, pre-COVID-19 in-person survey data with postpandemic phone survey data, along with local government area (LGA)–level information on access to school feeding services. We used a difference-in-difference approach and examined temporal trends in the food security of households with and without access to school feeding services. Of the sampled households, 83% live in LGAs with school feeding services. Results: Households experienced an increase in food insecurity in the post-COVID-19 survey round. The share of households skipping a meal increased by 47 percentage points (95% CI: 44–50 percentage points). COVID-19-induced disruptions of school feeding services increased households' experiences of food insecurity, increasing the probability of skipping a meal by 9 percentage points (95% CI: 3–17 percentage points) and the likelihood of going without eating for a whole day by 3 percentage points (95% CI: 2–11 percentage points). Disruption of school feeding services is associated with a 0.2 SD (95% CI: 0.04–0.41 SD) increase in the food insecurity index. Households residing in states experiencing strict lockdown measures reported further deterioration in food insecurity. Single mothers and poorer households experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food security due to disruption of school feeding services. Conclusions: Our findings show that COVID-19-induced disruptions in educational and nutritional services have exacerbated households’ food insecurity in Nigeria. These findings can inform the designs of immediate and medium-term responses, including the designs of social protection policies and alternative programs to substitute nutritional services affected by the pandemic.

Regional developments [in 2021 Global Food Policy Report]

As the coronavirus pandemic reached every corner of the world in 2020, countries responded rapidly with an array of policies to stop the spread of the highly contagious disease, and then with social and economic policies to protect food security, incomes, and livelihoods. This experience brought attention to weaknesses in health, economic, and social protection systems. But it also showcased new innovations, approaches, and the surprising resilience of food systems. The diverse experiences of the world’s major regions have important lessons for creating sustainable, equitable, efficient, healthy, and resilient food systems. The impact of COVID-19 on food systems, wellbeing, and future transformation is examined for each major region.

Youth migration decisions in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Satellite‐based empirical evidence from Nigeria

This article examines the implications of urban growth on youth migration decisions in Nigeria. We use night light intensity data combined with Living Standards Measurement Study‐Integrated Surveys on Agriculture data, as an indicator of urban growth and associated economic opportunities. Employing alternative econometric approaches that exploit the spatial and temporal differences in urban growth as proxied by night light intensity, we find that urban growth in potential migrant destinations encourages youth migration. We also find heterogeneous responses to urban growth among various groups of youth as well as varying responses to different types of migration. Broadly, women and those youth with more education are more likely to migrate, while those in households with livestock are less likely to migrate. Often, however, the effects are complex and varied. For example, land and physical asset ownership encourage temporary migration; but greater land ownership discourages permanent migration, while physical assets have insignificant effects. Our results from Nigeria show that makers concerned about rural–urban youth exodus should adopt a differentiated, in terms of targets, and multidimensional approach to reap the benefits of urbanization while avoiding its negative consequences.

Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

This paper uses multiple rounds of household survey panel data to assess the distributional implications of variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression-based inequality decomposition to estimate the impact of climate-induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time-invariant and time-variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10 percent increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52 percent on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25 and 43 percent of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16 and 31 percent of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.

Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

This paper uses multiple rounds of panel data to assess the distributional implications of the variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression‐based inequality decomposition approach to estimate the impact of climate‐induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time‐invariant and time‐variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10% increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52% on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25% and 43% of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16% and 31% of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.

The relative commercial orientation of smallholder farmers in Nigeria: Household and crop value-chain analyses

Increasing the productivity of commercially oriented smallholder farming households in Nigeria results in greater incomes for their households, which, in turn, can drive an expansion in local nonfarm employment opportunities and raise incomes across rural communities. Appropriately targeting agricultural development efforts towards commercially oriented farming households has important second-round development benefits for rural economies. We use nationally representative data from the Nigeria General Household Survey Panel to examine the characteristics of households and their context that determine their level of commercial orientation in 2015/16. We then use the same dataset for crop-specific analyses of the factors associated with a household choosing to produce a specific crop, to sell any of their harvest of that crop, and, if they sold any of the crop, whether they sold more than half of their harvest. Twelve crops are examined. We find that the commercial orientation of most smallholder farming households in Nigeria is not strong. One-third reported not making any crop sales, relying instead on household enterprises or wage employment to meet their cash needs. Another one-third reported selling less than one-third of the crops they harvested by value. For these households, any crop sales made seem to reflect the limited other options they have to obtain cash, rather than being part of a strategy of commercial production. A subsistence orientation still drives most crop production by smallholder farming households in Nigeria. The crop-specific analyses confirm that crop sales for many households are driven to an important degree by their lack of other income sources, rather than by actively seeking to produce significant commercial surpluses of a crop. That this is the case reflects a range of deficiencies in the production and marketing of many of the crops. Improved crop production technologies are not commonly used, may not be readily available, or, if available, may prove challenging to employ profitably. Nigerian crop markets remain risky with no assurances that farmers will find buyers offering remunerative prices when they bring their produce to the market to sell. Continued investments to increase crop productivity and to improve the performance and reliability of crop value chains are needed if commercial considerations are increasingly to drive the crop choices of smallholder farming households, to provide incentives for higher crop productivity, and, through the increased crop income of commercially oriented farming households, to motivate expansion in local non-farm sectors and to raise incomes for all households in rural Nigerian communities.

The effects of COVID-19 policies on livelihoods and food security of smallholder farm households in Nigeria: Descriptive results from a phone survey

The Government’s policy measures such as travel restrictions, lockdowns, and restrictions on economic and social activities, aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19, had affected the livelihoods and food security of smallholders in Nigeria. Using data collected from sample households from four Nigerian states, this study investigated the effects of COVID-19 pandemic policies on the incomes, employment, and food security situation of smallholder farming households. Results show that 88 percent of the households reported that they lost about 50 percent of their income due to the pandemic. As a result, about 66 percent of respondents reported they reduced food consumption. Travel and movement restrictions caused disruptions in agricultural activities and supply chains, as 29 percent of respondents reported planting fewer crops, 24 percent reduced cropping area, and 24 percent reduced fertilizer application. In terms of household’s food security, results show that COVID-19 significantly worsened the food security situation of many households in Nigeria, especially poorer households. More than 80 percent of respondents worried about not having enough food and 77 percent ate less food than they thought they should. Survey households also reported a significant reduction of consumption of proteins (eggs, meat, and dairy products) and fruits since the pandemic struck. Increases in food prices are felt by most households (85 percent). We suggest three key policy priorities: support vulnerable households to mitigate the impacts of income loss through cash transfer or improved credit access; interventions to improve agricultural inputs supply chains to ease the pandemic’s impact on agricultural production; and support food insecure households through direct food distribution.

Postharvest losses and the impact of reusable plastic container technology on profitability: Evidence from tomato traders in Nigeria

Postharvest loss is a major challenge in food production and supply chains in developing countries. Using primary data from fresh tomato traders in Lagos, Nigeria, and endogenous switching econometric modelling, this study investigates the effects of reusable plastic containers (RPC) technology on traders’ net profits and the factors determining the adoption of the technology. Results indicate that the trader’s position along the supply chain, income level, seasonality, sales frequency, and technology affordability positively influence their adoption decision. We found that the use of RPC technology significantly increases traders’ net profits. The counterfactual impact analysis indicates that traders who adopted RPC would have earned 7 percent lower net profits had they not used RPC. Conversely, non-adopters would have increased their net profit by 5 percent had they adopted the technology. However, heterogenous treatment effects were observed due to heterogeneities among the adopters.

The impact of quality foundational skills on youth employment in Africa: Does institutional quality matter?

Despite impressive progress in the economic performance of many African countries in recent years, youth unemployment remains one of the continent’s main socioeconomic and political problems. This study employs panel data covering 49 African countries for the period 2000–2017 to provide the first attempt to explicitly examine the dynamic relationship between quality foundational skills, measured by basic education quality (teacher-pupil ratio), and youth unemployment, while considering the conditional role of institutional capacity, measured by control of corruption, regulatory quality, and financial development. The empirical estimation in this paper is based on a two-step system generalized method of moments (SGMM), in order to control for unobserved heterogeneity and potential endogeneity of all the explanatory variables. The following are the main findings: First, youth unemployment is persistent in Africa. Second, quality of basic education exerts a negative impact on youth unemployment. Third, greater control of corruption, improved regulatory quality, and better structured financial sectors strengthen the effect of quality basic education in reducing youth unemployment. These findings provide a clear policy pathway for reducting youth unemployment. In particular, we recommend that better quality basic education, a well-structured financial structure, and institutional quality should constitute a fundamental component of the policy mix to reduce youth unemployment in Africa.

Do credit constraints affect agricultural technology adoption? Evidence from Nigeria

The agricultural sector in Nigeria is characterized by low productivity that is driven in part by low use of modern agricultural technologies. Poor access to credit is seen by many observers to be one of the key barriers to adoption of these technologies. Literature suggests that credit constraints impede individuals from investing in productivity enhancing agricultural technologies and, thus, poor farmers are unable to engage in high-return agricultural activities. Much policy discourse and research literature associates agricultural credit constraints with supply-side factors, such as farmers not having access to credit sources or high costs of borrowing, and, thus, recommend that such supply-side constraints be addressed to improve smallholders’ access to credit. However, demand-side factors, such as borrower’s risk-averse behavior, financial illiteracy, collateral requirements, or perceived high transactions costs, can also play important roles in credit-rationing for smallholder farmers.

Estimating the economic costs of COVID-19 in Nigeria

In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Public expenditures on agriculture at subnational-levels and household-level agricultural outcomes in Nigeria

Growing agriculture remains important for countries like Nigeria where, despite economic transformation at sectoral levels, a significant share of employment still originates from the agricultural sector. The question has continued to be debated of whether increasing Public Expenditures on Agriculture (PEA) is the way to grow agriculture. The needed evidence-base for this debate, while gradually growing, has remained insufficient in African countries, including Nigeria. This has been particularly the case as regards to evidence on the effects of PEA at household levels. This study attempted to partially fill this gap, using state and local government area (LGA)-level PEA figures and household data in Nigeria. The findings suggest that PEA has positive effects on household-level agricultural outcomes in various dimensions, including overall production levels, profits, access to public extension services or subsidized fertilizer, as well as private investments and, in some cases, agricultural mechanization. These patterns generally underscore the hypothesis that increasing direct support to the agricultural sector is likely to have greater effects on agricultural outcomes, compared to alternative strategies of developing agriculture indirectly through the support of other social-sectors like education, health, social safety-nets, among others. Increasing PEA by increasing the agricultural share of public expenditures (PE), while keeping the overall size of PE constant, is found to be particularly effective, compared to alternative approaches of increasing the overall size of PE while keeping agricultural share unchanged. Such patterns may suggest that Ricardian Equivalence partly holds. Furthermore, different agricultural outcomes are found to respond to PEA from different sources (e.g., LGA or State), and types (e.g., recurrent or capital spending). Enhancing research capacity to identify appropriate sources and types of PEA for particular agricultural outcomes remains important.

Effects of public expenditures on agriculture at subnational levels on households’ welfare and economic resilience in Nigeria

Agricultural development has long been considered an important driver of overall economic development in developing countries such as Nigeria. Whether increasing public expenditures on agriculture (PEA) can directly improve broad dimensions of household well-being has continued to be debated. In addition, there has been growing interest in the economic flexibility of households to switch between nonfarm and farming activities. Such flexibility can potentially enhance the resilience of households to shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic in today’s rapidly changing socioeconomic environments. Direct evidence of the impact of PEA on broad development outcomes is also important in informing regional initiatives aiming to use PEA as an instrument for overall food security enhancement and poverty reduction in Africa. Using state- and local government area (LGA)-level PEA figures and household data in Nigeria, this study aims to provide initial evidence at the household level in Nigeria. The findings suggest that greater PEA shares have positive effects on various development outcomes at the household level, including consumption, poverty reduction, nonfarm capital investments, and household dietary diversity. The findings also suggest that greater PEA shares are likely to help farm households enhance their economic flexibility. These findings are consistent with the hypotheses of positive linkages between PEA and agricultural outcomes, and linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural outcomes, often advocated in the literature. PEA should be increased by increasing its share of total public expenditures through conscious efforts to reallocate existing resources, rather than trying to increase it by increasing the overall size of public expenditures. Furthermore, it remains important to identify the appropriate sources (for example, spending by LGA or state) and types of PEA (for example, recurrent or capital spending) for particular development outcomes.

Credit constraints and agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from Nigeria

The agricultural sector in Nigeria is characterized by low productivity that is driven by low use of modern agricultural technologies, such as improved seed, chemical fertilizer, agrochemicals, and agricultural machinery. Poor access to credit is claimed to be one of the key barriers to adoption of these technologies. This study examines the nature of credit constraints among smallholder farmers – whether smallholders are credit constrained or not and the extent to which credit constraints emanate from supply-side or demand-side factors. Using multinomial probit and seeming unrelated simultaneous equations econometric models with data from the 2018/19 Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) for Nigeria, the study investigates the factors affecting credit access and the effects of these credit constraints on adoption of four agricultural technologies – inorganic fertilizer, improved seed, agrochemicals, and mechanization. The results show that about 27 percent of survey households were found to be credit constrained – 12.8 percent due to supply-side factors and 14.2 percent due to demand-side factors. Lack of access to information and communication technology, extension services, and insurance coverage are the major demand-side factors negatively affecting smallholder’s access to credit. Registered land tiles and livestock ownership enhance credit access. Credit constraints manifests themselves differentially on the adoption of different agricultural technologies. While adoption of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed are significantly affected by credit constraints from both the supply and the demand-sides; use of agricultural machinery is affected only by demand-side factors, while use of agrochemicals is not affected from either supply or demand-side credit factors. From a policy perspective, our findings indicate that improving credit access via supply-side interventions alone may not necessarily boost use of modern agricultural technologies by smallholder farmers in Nigeria. Demand-side factors, such as access to information, extension services, and insurance cover, should equally be addressed to mitigate the credit constraints faced by smallholders and increase their adoption of modern agricultural technologies and improve their productivity.

National extension policy and state-level implementation: The case of Cross River State, Nigeria

Agricultural extension plays a number of important roles in the growth and transformation of the agricultural sector, including improving agricultural productivity and food security and reducing hunger and malnutrition. Extension programs and interventions that will achieve significant impacts in terms of behavior and practice changes, as well as agricultural productivity increase, will succeed as a result of suitable policy formulation and an effective implementation process. Ultimately, agricultural extension reform requires policy vision and determination and a state-level strategy that can be implemented. This paper documents issues, challenges, constraints, and potential solutions and opportunities in implementing the national extension policy (NEP) at the state level in Nigeria, using Cross River State as a case study. We use both quantitative and qualitative methods, in the form of descriptive statistical analysis and an inclusive consultative process with a focus on the multistakeholder participatory model, respectively. The descriptive results show that, generally, there is low access to agricultural extension service across commodities and their respective values chains in Cross River State. We also document interesting insights from the multistakeholder consultative process. We find that collaboration and partnership between private and public extension service providers is key to developing a sustainable extension, advisory, and support service in Cross River State. We also found that coordination and standardization of the activities of the extension service providers is a way to avoid pollution of the agricultural innovation system in the state. Funding of extension services is another important factor affecting the effective implementation of the NEP. We therefore suggest that agricultural extension services can be funded through decentralization, involvement of farmers’ associations and nongovernmental organizations, contracting out of extension services, public-private partnerships, privatization, and embedding advisory services in other types of contracts. The results of this study further validate our approach of using multistakeholder engagement at the state level as an effective and insightful method of implementing the NEP at the state level.

National extension policy and state level implementation: The case of Niger State in Nigeria

The aim of Nigeria’s extension reform and transformation agenda through its new national extension policy (NEP) is to put in place a legislated, pluralistic, farmer-responsive, and market-oriented extension system. The reformed extension system aims at an assured and regular source of funding and a well-trained and motivated staff, effectively catering for a variety of actors along targeted value chains. It also aims at effective integration of the complex innovation processes in the agricultural and food system transformation in Nigeria. Implementation of the NEP at the state level remains a major challenge. This paper documents issues, challenges, constraints, and potential solutions and opportunities in implementing NEP at the state level using Niger State as a case study. We use a qualitative method in the context of inclusive consultative process with a focus on the multi-stakeholder participatory model. We found that strengthening actors’ capacities for innovation by considering the complexity of agricultural innovation system is very critical to effective and successful implementation of national agricultural policies in Niger State. We confirm from our study that “networking, partnership facilitation, and collaboration” functions are crucial cross-cutting measures across the agricultural innovation system for operative and systematic implementation of the NEP in Niger State. Based on our findings in Niger State, even if we make effort to draw generic lessons for Nigeria, the case studies show that understanding the dynamics of efficiently and productively implementing the National Extension Policy remain case-specific, and no ‘silver bullet’ can be provided to support agricultural innovation system due to the complex federal governance system in Nigeria. Therefore, a state-level or case-specific is highly recommended for operational implementation process in Nigeria.

The role of agriculture in reducing child undernutrition in Nigeria

This study examines the effect of agricultural productivity change on child nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. Using several waves of micro-level panel data from Nigeria, we first show that high temperature (heat stress) reduces agricultural productivity change. A one percent increase in high temperatures during the crop growth period result in a 4 percent decrease in agricultural productivity. More importantly, our analysis provides several important insights on the implications of agricultural productivity change for reducing child undernutrition. The results show that agricultural productivity growth has a positive effect on child nutritional outcomes, measured by child height-for-age and weight-for-age. The main channel through which agricultural productivity growth affects child nutritional outcomes is by increasing food production for own household consumption. This suggests that productivity-enhancing investments in the agricultural sector could have a direct impact on child nutritional outcomes among smallholder households in Nigeria. The results also show that agricultural productivity change has higher impact for households who have better access to markets and a higher educational level. Interventions and policies geared towards intensification of agricultural production need to be complemented with strategies for widening educational programs and improving farmers’ access to markets. to induce incentives for increased production.

Poor dietary quality is Nigeria’s key nutrition problem

Nigeria faces a growing triple burden of malnutrition. First, chronic childhood undernutrition remains stubbornly high. Nationwide, 36.8% of children under five years were estimated to be stunted in 2018—only slightly down from 40.8% in 2008. This corresponds to an annual average decline of less than 0.4 percentage points over the last decade and was almost exclusively due to a reduction in the prevalence of child stunting in urban areas (Table 1). Second, micronutrient malnutrition, including iron deficiency anemia, is extremely widespread among young children and women of reproductive age. While the prevalence rate of anemia among children under five years slightly declined in rural areas between 2010 and 2018, it substantially increased in urban areas. Third, overweight and obesity among adults has been rising rapidly in both urban and rural areas. Over the last decade, the national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity (the extreme form of overnutrition) among nonpregnant women 15 to 49 years of age increased faster than the rate of child stunting decreased, driving the growth of the triple burden. Obesity significantly increases the risk of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (like heart attack and stroke), and hypertension. The root cause of all forms of malnutrition is poor dietary quality, while poor water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions aggravate malnutrition.

Polygynous family structure and child undernutrition in Nigeria

There is a growing interest in the research literature in exploring how child nutrition is affected by sociocultural practices, such as polygyny. However, evaluation of the effect of polygyny on child nutrition has been hindered by the complexity of the relationship. This paper investigates the effect of polygyny on anthropometric outcomes while recognizing that unobservable household characteristics may simultaneously influence both the decision to form a polygynous union and the ability of the household to adequately nourish children. Polygyny can affect children’s nutrition through increased family size, early marriage, and the level of household investment in child health. In this paper, we apply an instrumental variable approach based on the occurrence of same sex siblings in a woman’s first two births to generate exogenous variation in polygyny. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys, we find a detrimental effect of polygyny on child undernutrition, with a greater effect in poorer households and those resident in more urban locations.

Avocados in Kenya: What’s holding back smallholder farmers

Kenya is the world’s third largest producer of avocados. It’s also Kenya’s leading fruit export, accounting for nearly one-fifth of its total horticultural exports. But Kenya only exports 10% of its total avocado production. By comparison, Chile exports 55% and South Africa exports 60%. Avocado is grown in several parts of Kenya and about 70% of avocado production is by small-scale growers. They grow it for subsistence, local markets, and export purposes. The avocado export market in Kenya is dominated by five major exporters: Kakuzi, Vegpro, Sunripe, Kenya Horticultural Exporters, and East African Growers. These companies source their avocados primarily from smallholder farmers, although some firms also source from larger growers or own plantations. In a new study we surveyed 790 avocado-farming households in Kenya and analysed what factors get in the way of smallholder farmers participating in export markets. We then looked at the implications this has on their farming businesses. This included labour inputs – such as hired and family labour – farm yields, sales prices, and finally, incomes.

Urbanization and child nutritional outcomes

In this paper, the relationship between urbanization and child nutritional outcomes is investigated using satellite-based nighttime light intensity data as a proxy for urbanization and urban growth. Geo-referenced and nationally representative data from two rounds (2008 and 2013) of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) from Nigeria is employed. The DHS data provide detailed anthropometric measures of child nutritional outcomes along with a series of control variables. These geo-referenced DHS data are merged with nighttime light intensity data for the survey clusters in which the DHS sample households reside. This nighttime light introduces a gradient of urbanization permitting investigation of the implications of urbanization on child nutritional outcomes along an urbanization continuum.

Effects of agricultural mechanization on economies of scope in crop production in Nigeria

Agricultural mechanization has often been associated with scale-effects and increased specialization. Such characterizations, however, fail to explain how mechanization may grow in Africa where production environments are heterogeneous even within a farm household, and crop diversification may help in mitigating risks. Using panel data from farm households and crop-specific production costs in Nigeria, we estimate how the adoptions of animal traction or tractors affect the economies of scope (EOS) for rice, non-rice grains, and legumes/seeds, which are the crop groups that are most widely grown with animal traction or tractors in Nigeria, with respect to other non-rice crops. The inverse-probability-weighting method is used to address the potential endogeneity of mechanization adoption and is combined with primal- and dual-models of EOS estimation. The results show that the adoption of these mechanization technologies is associated with greater EOS between rice and non-rice crops but lower EOS among non-rice crops (i.e., between non-rice grains, legumes/seeds, and other non-rice crops). Mechanical technologies may raise EOS between crops that are grown in more heterogeneous environments, even though it may lower EOS between crops that are grown under relatively similar agroecological conditions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that shows the effects of mechanical technologies on EOS in agriculture in developing countries.

Mechanization in Nigeria: What needs to be done to stimulate demand and support market growth?

Mechanization increases the power applied to agricultural operations and is one tool among many for improving farm productivity and increasing incomes for Nigeria’s farmers and processors. It alone cannot drive the transformation of agriculture (Pingali 2007). Farmers will mechanize to lower costs and ensure timeliness of operations, allowing a greater area of land to be cultivated. The demand for mechanization is therefore determined by the stage of agricultural transformation reflecting the use of complementary inputs (improved seeds, fertilizer), the intensity of farming, land holdings, and rural labor supply and thus wages. Countries across the developing world have mechanized at different rates corresponding to their level of agricultural transformation but also strongly influenced by government policies. Assessments of agricultural mechanization at the continental level have found that Nigeria has an agricultural sector characterized by both low productivity growth and low machinery growth relative to other African countries (2018, Malabo Montpellier Panel). This brief will examine some of the supply and demand side constraints that may be hindering the adoption of mechanization and outline strategies where government and donors can focus their efforts to better support farm productivity.

Nigeria land governance reform: What needs to be done to stimulate demand and support market growth?

Over the last decade, land tenure reform and enhanced tenure security have been given greater attention by African governments, including Nigeria, as policy tools to encourage agricultural growth and to alleviate poverty. Land tenure security can generate agricultural investment incentives and lead to increased agricultural productivity through three channels (Besely 1995). First, it promotes long term investment in land by reducing expropriation risk. Second, it encourages investment by lowering transaction costs and allowing more productive farmers to purchase or rent land from less productive farmers, making both parties better off. Third, it reduces asymmetric information about land ownership rights, allowing individuals to use their land as collateral for loans encouraging investment. Less than 3 percent of the land in Nigeria is formally registered leaving the vast majority of the population to deal with tenure insecurity and its attendant negative implications on land related investment and agricultural productivity. This brief will examine current land policy and administration in Nigeria, landholders demand for tenure security, and present recommendations to improve administration of land.

Transforming agriculture to improve food and nutrition security in Nigeria

The current agricultural strategy of the Federal Government of Nigeria—the Agricultural Promotion Policy 2016-2020—carries forward the revitalization of the agricultural sector as outlined in the preceding strategy—the Agricultural Transformation Agenda 2011-2016. The Agricultural Promotion Policy aims to increase agricultural production to meet the food needs of the country’s rapidly growing population and transform agriculture from subsistence to commercial and export-oriented production. The complementary Agricultural Sector Food Security and Nutrition Strategy 2016-2025 declares improved food security and nutrition as main goals of the intended agricultural transformation and identifies priority areas that should guide the activities of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and aligned stakeholders to achieve these objectives. Both strategy documents emphasize the importance of policy-relevant and rigorous agricultural and nutrition research to inform policy priority setting and support decision-making processes. This policy note summarizes findings from a recent study by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) researchers that seeks to inform Nigerian policymakers and donors about the effects of agricultural transformation on food and nutrition security of farm households in Nigeria (Ecker et al 2018).

Polygynous family structure and child undernutrition in Africa: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

A growing interest is emerging in the literature to explore how child nutrition is affected by sociocultural practices, such as polygyny. However, evaluation of the effect of polygyny on child nutrition has been hindered by the complexity of the relationship. This paper investigates the impact of polygyny on anthropometric outcomes recognizing that unobservable household characteristics may simultaneously influence both the polygyny decision and the ability to adequately nourish children. We apply an instrumental variable approach based on the occurrence of same sex siblings in a woman’s first two births to generate exogenous variation in polygyny. Using 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data, we find that same sex siblings predict polygyny. We also find a strong positive effect of polygyny confirming its detrimental effect on both long-term and short-term child undernutrition, with a greater impact in poorer and more urban households.

The roles of agroclimatic similarity and returns on scale in the demand for mechanization: Insights from Nigeria

Despite economic transformations and urbanization, declining shares of the workforce employed in the agricultural sector, and gradual growth of agricultural mechanization, production costs in the agricultural sector and food prices remain high in Nigeria relative to those in some of the other developing countries. Understanding how the adoption of mechanical technologies is related to agricultural productivity is, therefore, important for countries like Nigeria. Using farm household data from northern Nigeria as well as var-ious spatial agroclimatic data, this study shows that the adoption of key mechanical technologies in Nigerian agriculture (animal trac-tion, tractors, or both) has been high in areas that are more agro-climatically similar to the locations of agricultural research and de-velopment (R&D) stations, and this effect is heterogeneous, being particularly strong among relatively larger farms. Furthermore, such effects are likely to have been driven by the rise in returns-to-scale in the underlying production function caused by the adoption of these mechanical technologies. Agricultural mechanization, repre-sented here as the switch from manual labor to animal traction and tractors, has been not only raising the average return on scale but also potentially magnifying the effects of productivity-enhancing public-sector R&D on spatial variations in agricultural productivity in countries like Nigeria.

Extension through entrepreneurial approach: Evaluating the agriclinics program

Mother’s nutrition-related knowledge and child nutrition outcomes: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Nutrition outcomes among young children in Nigeria are among the worse globally. Mother’s limited knowledge about food choices, feeding, and health care seeking practices contributes significantly to negative nutrition outcomes for children in most developing countries. Much less is known about the relationship between mother’s nutrition-related knowledge and child nutritional outcomes in rural Nigeria. This paper investigates therefore: (i) the association of mother’s nutrition-related knowledge with nutrition outcomes of young children living in rural Nigeria, where access to education is limited, and (ii) whether mother’s education has a complementary effect on such knowledge in producing positive child nutrition outcomes in such settings.

Micronutrient-rich food consumption, intra-household food allocation and child stunting in rural Nigeria

Children from rural households are often deprived of adequate micronutrient intakes either from food or supplementation. The present study examines: (i) the determinants of households’ micronutrient-rich food consumption; and (ii) the combined effect of vitamin A supplementation and micronutrient-rich food consumption on child stunting in households with different food allocation patterns.Cross-sectional study. Households’ micronutrient-rich food consumption frequency and vitamin A supplementation were used as a proxy measure for child micronutrient intakes. Intra-household food allocation patterns were assessed from caregivers’ perception of the disparity in food distribution within the household. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression were employed in analysing the study’s objectives.Rural communities in Kwara State, Nigeria.Included 419 children aged 6–59 months and 413 households.Owning small livestock and a refrigerator, knowledge of micronutrient-rich foods and higher parental education had strong associations with households’ micronutrient-rich food consumption. Children from households that consumed micronutrient-rich foods and received more diverse diets were less likely to experience stunting. The combined effect of micronutrient-rich food consumption and vitamin A supplementation was stronger on the likelihood of stunting reduction than the separate effect of each.Assets ownership, human capital and knowledge of micronutrient-rich foods improve consumption of micronutrient-rich foods among the study population. Micronutrient supplementation to children with poor access to micronutrient-rich foods may not substantially enhance child growth unless reinforced through consumption of micronutrient-rich foods. Fruit and vegetable gardening, livestock holdings and nutrition education to parents should be integral parts of community nutrition programming.

Geography of plant breeding systems, agroclimatic similarity, and agricultural productivity: Evidence from Nigeria

Agroclimatic conditions and agricultural research and development (R&D) including plant breeding activities by the public sector are some of the most significant exogenous factors in the agricultural sector. However, the effects of the interactions between these two sets of factors on agricultural productivity have not been studied widely in developing countries, despite potentially important implications on their plant breeding strategies. Using three-wave panel data of agricultural households in Nigeria and spatial data on various agroclimatic parameters, we show that agricultural productivity and technical efficiency at the agricultural household level is significantly positively affected by the similarity of agroclimatic conditions between locations where agricultural households are located, and locations where major plant breeding institutes are located. These results hold after controlling for various socioeconomic characteristics of these households, including their physical distances to the breeding institutes. Findings are robust across parametric and nonparametric specifications such as Data Envelopment Method, and after addressing potential endogeneity of agroclimatic similarity and agricultural inputs variables in the production function. Productivity effects due to the locations of plant breeding institutes and resulting agroclimatic similarity can be potentially sizable given Nigeria's past productivity growth speed.

Child nutritional status, welfare and health in Nigerian households

The study attempts to provide insights into the relationships among child nutritional status, welfare and health among households and how these have evolved in Nigeria using the 2003, 2008, and 2013 children recode data of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Nigeria. We proxy welfare by using the wealth index of the DHS that captures wealth over time. Descriptive statistics and multilevel mixed-effects probit analysis were used to ascertain the linkages among child nutritional status, wealth, and health. The descriptive results show that malnutrition among under-5 children varies across the different wealth index levels with 50% and 35% of the children under-5 in the bottom two quintiles of the wealth index stunted and underweight, respectively. Results of the mixed-effects probit model also show that a child from a household with lower welfare is more likely to be malnourished. Our results also show that between 2003 and 2013, there has been no significant change in the wealth index levels between the richest and the poorest households. The study concludes that a household welfare level that is above average motivates increased nutritional levels among women and children in households and reduces the incidence of disease. Policies and practices that would increase the welfare of households would also have impacts on the nutritional status of households, especially those in the northern parts of Nigeria.

Agricultural public expenditures, sector performance, and welfare in Nigeria: A state-level analysis

Building on the work of earlier studies that looked at trends in and returns to federal public expenditures on agriculture in Nigeria, this paper explores spending patterns at the sub-national state level over a nine-year period, as well as trends in agricultural and economic performance and indicators of household welfare. Our examination focuses on two groupings of states – the full 37 state units of Nigeria (the 36 states, plus the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja); and the seven states that are the focus in Nigeria of the Global Food Security Strategy (GFSS) of the United States Agency for International Development. Sub-national agricultural spending as a share of aggregate agricultural spending in Nigeria is large, given the stronger role for sub-national governments in agriculture than is the case in other sectors. However, we find that the share of state-level expenditures on agriculture as a share of aggregate state-level expenditures is still relatively low, an average of 3.86 percent over the period 2007 to 2015. While the prioritization of agriculture spending varies greatly year by year, the variation over time does not have a discernible long-run upwards or downwards trend. We also find that agricultural expenditures are more capital intensive than are overall public expenditures at state level, but that capital expenditures as a share of total agriculture spending has decline over the last decade, as is the case overall in Nigeria’s industrial sectors. We conclude that efforts to strengthen state-level agricultural spending in Nigeria merits greater attention, while putting in place measures to ensure improved effectiveness in any such spending.

Synopsis: The enabling environment for informal food traders in Nigeria’s secondary cities

Informal vendors are a critical source of food security in African cities and play a key role in food system transformation. However, the livelihoods of these traders and the governance constraints they encounter are not well-understood outside of primate cities. This study focuses on two distinct secondary cities in Nigeria – Calabar in the South-South geopolitical zone and Minna in the Middle Belt region. Local and state officials in each city were interviewed on the legal, institutional, and oversight functions they provide within the informal food sector. This was complemented with a survey of 1,097 traders across the two cities.

Synopsis: Transforming agriculture for improving food and nutrition security among Nigerian farm households

The launch of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) by the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) in 2011 represented a shift in strategy toward increasing the agricultural sector share of the Nigerian economy. The successor FMARD strategy document for 2015-2019, the Agriculture Promotion Policy (APP), encompasses many elements of the ATA and is supportive of a continued emphasis on enhancing government’s attention to and support for the agricultural sector. Given the many Nigerians involved in farming, these adjustments in policymaker focus toward boosting general agricultural development, including targeted initiatives for specific crops and industries, could have substantial effects on livelihoods across Nigeria, especially in terms of farm household planting and consumption decisions. Since much smallholder-produced food is consumed at home rather than sold, such changes would influence dietary intakes and nutrition-related health outcomes. Thus, the goals of this study were to: 1) assess current conditions in the country regarding food insecurity and malnutrition; and, 2) determine if the hypothesized linkages between food consumption and various household characteristics (e.g., agricultural production) and market factors (e.g., prices) are observable in household survey data.

Why Nigeria urgently needs to grow non-oil exports

We traced the impact of the recent price declines and considered what policy options were available to the Nigerian authorities to come up with counter measures.

The enabling environment for informal food traders in Nigeria’s secondary cities

Informal vendors are a critical source of food security for urban residents in African cities. However, the livelihoods of these traders and the governance constraints they encounter are not well-understood outside of the region’s capital and primate cities. This study focuses on two distinct secondary cities in Nigeria, Calabar in the South-South geopolitical zone of the country and Minna in the Middle Belt region. Local and state officials in each city were interviewed on the legal, institutional, and oversight functions they provide within the informal food sector. This was complemented with a survey of 1,097 traders across the two cities to assess their demographic characteristics, contributions to local food security, key challenges they face for profitability, engagement with government actors, and degree of access to services in the markets.

Role of land access in youth migration and youth employment decisions: Empirical evidence from rural Nigeria

The paper examines the role of land access in youth migration and employment decisions using a two wave panel data set from the Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) from Nigeria. Overall, the findings show that the size of expected land inheritance is significantly and negatively associated with long distance migration and migration to urban areas, while a similar impact is negligible when a broader definition of migration is adopted and when migration is deemed as temporary. A more disaggregated analysis by considering individual characteristics of the youth shows that results are more elastic for older youth and those that are less educated, while we find no difference when comparisons are made by gender. Similar analysis on the influence of land access on youth employment choices shows strong evidence that the larger the size of the expected land inheritance the lower the likelihood of the youth being involved in non-agricultural activities and a higher chance of staying in agriculture or the dual sector. The results further reveal that youth in areas with a high level of agricultural commercialization and modernization seem to be more responsive to land access considerations in making migration and employment decisions than are youth residing in less commercialized areas. Finally, the results from the differential analysis suggest that rural-to-urban migration and the likelihood of youth involvement in the dual economy is more responsive to the size of the expected land inheritance for less educated youth as compared to more educated ones.

Synopsis: Cost and policy determinants of features of tractor markets in Nigeria: Case studies of tractor sellers in Kaduna state and tractor owners in Benue state

There is a need to undertake more thorough assessments of relevant agricultural machinery markets to determine why machine usage by farmers is potentially lower than it would be under ideal market conditions. Our study focuses on four-wheel tractors. Information and data on tractor market structure, conduct, and performance in Africa is sparse. To partly fill this gap, we implemented a qualitative review of two tractor markets in Nigeria – survey-based assessments of the business characteristics of tractor sellers in Kaduna state and of tractor owners in Benue state. Detailed characterizations of the vertical and geographic distribution of these businesses and identification of principal revenue sources and costs were obtained through the surveys.

Federal government support for agriculture in Nigeria: Analysis with a public expenditure lens

This paper provides a broad view of public sector support to agriculture in Nigeria, through the lens of the allocation of public expenditures by the federal government in support of the sector. We consider the adequacy and stability of agricultural public spending during the period of 2007 to 2016, drawing on data from the Ministry of Finance, the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, and other sources.

Transforming agriculture for improving food and nutrition security among Nigerian farm households

The release by the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) in 2010 and its successor strategy document, the Agriculture Promotion Policy (APP), in 2016 as official policy strategy documents signals a shift in policymaker attention toward improving the performance of the agricultural sector in the country after decades of neglect. This paper discusses the potential effects of changes in agricultural production practices due to these adjustments in strategy on food consumption, and, hence, on food security and nutrition in Nigeria. We outline the theoretical linkages between changes in agricultural production patterns by farm households and their food consumption decisions.

Synopsis: Grain storage and marketplace characteristics in Kebbi state, Nigeria

The focus of this study is on the physical infrastructure of marketplaces in Kebbi state, Nigeria, an agriculture-based state in the northwest. Kebbi state has distinct variation in climate within a crop year, and, hence, there is need for farmers and traders to store produced crops for use during the year. Increased investments in storage facilities in the state could accelerate agricultural development.

Synopsis: Effects of agricultural mechanization on economies of scope in crop production in Nigeria

Economies of scope (EOS) refer to the economic benefits of producing multiple types of outputs rather than specializing in producing a specific output. EOS closely relates to the potential for crop diversification. Using panel data from farm households and crop-specific production costs in Nigeria, we estimate how the adoption of animal traction or tractors affects EOS between rice, non-rice grains, legumes/seeds, and other crops, which are the crop groups that are most widely grown with animal traction or tractors in Nigeria.

Cost and policy determinants of features of tractor markets in Nigeria: Case studies of tractor sellers in Kaduna state and tractor owners in Benue state

In this study, we contribute to such efforts to enhance the use of tractors in Africa by describing the key characteristics of markets for tractors in Nigeria. Nigeria is among a set of countries in Africa that has both low agricultural productivity and low agricultural mechanization growth (Malabo Montpellier Panel 2018). Current understanding of the tractor market in Nigeria mainly highlights only specific aspects of mechanization issues or only delves into the application of specific emergent mechanization technologies. Consequently, many stakeholders do not have sufficient understanding of how tractor markets in Nigeria are organized both in vertical and in geographic terms.