NSSP Working Papers

× This paper uses multiple rounds of household survey panel data to assess the distributional implications of variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression-based inequality decomposition to estimate the impact of climate-induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time-invariant and time-variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10 percent increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52 percent on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25 and 43 percent of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16 and 31 percent of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.

× Public expenditures (PE) are critical for key public sector functions that contribute to development and welfare improvements, including the provisions of necessary public goods and the mitigation of market failures. PE in social sectors, such as health, education, and social welfare, and in agriculture have been increasingly recognized as potentially important for income growth, poverty reduction, fostering increased private investment, improved nutritional outcomes, and greater economic resilience. Furthermore, the importance of the impact of subnational PE on these outcomes has also been recognized, as appropriately decentralized PE systems can potentially achieve greater effectiveness by enabling public sector support that is tailored more to local needs. However, direct evidence of these developmental effects of decentralized PE in developing countries like Nigeria has been relatively limited. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap by estimating the effects of shares of total subnational PE for agriculture, health, education, and social welfare, as well as PE size, on household-level outcomes using nationally-representative panel household data and both local government area and higher state-level PE data for Nigeria. We find that greater shares of total PE for agriculture, health, and social welfare, conditional on PE size, generally have positive effects on consumption, poverty reduction, and non-farm business capital investments. A greater share of total PE for agriculture benefits a broader range of outcomes than do greater shares of total PE for health and social welfare. These include improving certain nutritional outcomes, like household dietary diversity across seasons, and economic flexibility between farm and non-farm activities, which may be particularly important for building resilience in today’s rapidly changing socioeconomic environment due to shocks, including COVID19. Such multi-dimensional benefits of greater PE for agriculture are particularly worthy of attention in countries like Nigeria, which have historically allocated a lower share of total PE to agriculture than to health and other social welfare sectors and a lower share of total PE to agriculture compared to that allocated to agriculture in similar countries in Africa and elsewhere.

× There is a growing interest in the research literature in exploring how child nutrition is affected by sociocultural practices, such as polygyny. However, evaluation of the effect of polygyny on child nutrition has been hindered by the complexity of the relationship. This paper investigates the effect of polygyny on anthropometric outcomes while recognizing that unobservable household characteristics may simultaneously influence both the decision to form a polygynous union and the ability of the household to adequately nourish children. Polygyny can affect children’s nutrition through increased family size, early marriage, and the level of household investment in child health. In this paper, we apply an instrumental variable approach based on the occurrence of same sex siblings in a woman’s first two births to generate exogenous variation in polygyny. Using data from the 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys, we find a detrimental effect of polygyny on child undernutrition, with a greater effect in poorer households and those resident in more urban locations.

× This study examines the effect of agricultural productivity change on child nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. Using several waves of micro-level panel data from Nigeria, we first show that high temperature (heat stress) reduces agricultural productivity change. A one percent increase in high temperatures during the crop growth period result in a 4 percent decrease in agricultural productivity. More importantly, our analysis provides several important insights on the implications of agricultural productivity change for reducing child undernutrition. The results show that agricultural productivity growth has a positive effect on child nutritional outcomes, measured by child height-for-age and weight-for-age. The main channel through which agricultural productivity growth affects child nutritional outcomes is by increasing food production for own household consumption. This suggests that productivity-enhancing investments in the agricultural sector could have a direct impact on child nutritional outcomes among smallholder households in Nigeria. The results also show that agricultural productivity change has higher impact for households who have better access to markets and a higher educational level. Interventions and policies geared towards intensification of agricultural production need to be complemented with strategies for widening educational programs and improving farmers’ access to markets. to induce incentives for increased production.

× In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states.
We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

× The agricultural sector in Nigeria is characterized by low productivity that is driven by low use of modern agricultural technologies, such as improved seed, chemical fertilizer, agrochemicals, and agricultural machinery. Poor access to credit is claimed to be one of the key barriers to adoption of these technologies. This study examines the nature of credit constraints among smallholder farmers – whether smallholders are credit constrained or not and the extent to which credit constraints emanate from supply-side or demand-side factors. Using multinomial probit and seeming unrelated simultaneous equations econometric models with data from the 2018/19 Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) for Nigeria, the study investigates the factors affecting credit access and the effects of these credit constraints on adoption of four agricultural technologies – inorganic fertilizer, improved seed, agrochemicals, and mechanization.
The results show that about 27 percent of survey households were found to be credit constrained – 12.8 percent due to supply-side factors and 14.2 percent due to demand-side factors. Lack of access to information and communication technology, extension services, and insurance coverage are the major demand-side factors negatively affecting smallholder’s access to credit. Registered land tiles and livestock ownership enhance credit access. Credit constraints manifests themselves differentially on the adoption of different agricultural technologies. While adoption of inorganic fertilizer and improved seed are significantly affected by credit constraints from both the supply and the demand-sides; use of agricultural machinery is affected only by demand-side factors, while use of agrochemicals is not affected from either supply or demand-side credit factors. From a policy perspective, our findings indicate that improving credit access via supply-side interventions alone may not necessarily boost use of modern agricultural technologies by smallholder farmers in Nigeria. Demand-side factors, such as access to information, extension services, and insurance cover, should equally be addressed to mitigate the credit constraints faced by smallholders and increase their adoption of modern agricultural technologies and improve their productivity.

× Postharvest loss is a major challenge in food production and supply chains in developing countries. Using primary data from fresh tomato traders in Lagos, Nigeria, and endogenous switching econometric modelling, this study investigates the effects of reusable plastic containers (RPC) technology on traders’ net profits and the factors determining the adoption of the technology. Results indicate that the trader’s position along the supply chain, income level, seasonality, sales frequency, and technology affordability positively influence their adoption decision. We found that the use of RPC technology significantly increases traders’ net profits. The counterfactual impact analysis indicates that traders who adopted RPC would have earned 7 percent lower net profits had they not used RPC. Conversely, non-adopters would have increased their net profit by 5 percent had they adopted the technology. However, heterogenous treatment effects were observed due to heterogeneities among the adopters.

× Increasing the productivity of commercially oriented smallholder farming households in Nigeria results in greater incomes for their households, which, in turn, can drive an expansion in local nonfarm employment opportunities and raise incomes across rural communities. Appropriately targeting agricultural development efforts towards commercially oriented farming households has important second-round development benefits for rural economies. We use nationally representative data from the Nigeria General Household Survey Panel to examine the characteristics of households and their context that determine their level of commercial orientation in 2015/16. We then use the same dataset for crop-specific analyses of the factors associated with a household choosing to produce a specific crop, to sell any of their harvest of that crop, and, if they sold any of the crop, whether they sold more than half of their harvest. Twelve crops are examined.
We find that the commercial orientation of most smallholder farming households in Nigeria is not strong. One-third reported not making any crop sales, relying instead on household enterprises or wage employment to meet their cash needs. Another one-third reported selling less than one-third of the crops they harvested by value. For these households, any crop sales made seem to reflect the limited other options they have to obtain cash, rather than being part of a strategy of commercial production. A subsistence orientation still drives most crop production by smallholder farming households in Nigeria. The crop-specific analyses confirm that crop sales for many households are driven to an important degree by their lack of other income sources, rather than by actively seeking to produce significant commercial surpluses of a crop.
That this is the case reflects a range of deficiencies in the production and marketing of many of the crops. Improved crop production technologies are not commonly used, may not be readily available, or, if available, may prove challenging to employ profitably. Nigerian crop markets remain risky with no assurances that farmers will find buyers offering remunerative prices when they bring their produce to the market to sell. Continued investments to increase crop productivity and to improve the performance and reliability of crop value chains are needed if commercial considerations are increasingly to drive the crop choices of smallholder farming households, to provide incentives for higher crop productivity, and, through the increased crop income of commercially oriented farming households, to motivate expansion in local non-farm sectors and to raise incomes for all households in rural Nigerian communities.

× Recent studies on food prices in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) found that food price seasonality in SSA remains an issue. In addition to it causing price risk, and, hence, limiting market participation among farmers and traders, the continued existence of substantial price seasonality implies that interventions that improve food market development are needed. Using a dataset that is unique for Nigeria, we contribute to this literature through measurement of the extent of seasonality in grain prices in a set of markets in Kebbi state. We believe that our focus on seasonality at the state, rather than country or continental, level can provide needed insights that are useful for identification of areas deserving stakeholder focus for rural development related initiatives. A main contribution is that we find that there are large enough differences in price behavior across the assessed markets to justify this more localized analysis.

× Nigeria confronts a prolonged period of adjustment. For more than a generation, the oil sector generated large volumes of foreign exchange. However, with the recent bust in global oil prices and the resumed restiveness in the oil rich Niger-Delta region since 2014, Nigeria was thrust into macroeconomic crisis. Four years on, we argue that policymakers effectively responded to the dual shocks mainly through import compression. However, the scope for continued import compression is now distinctly limited. For Nigeria to grow and prosper, the long-discussed diversification of the export base must occur via rapid expansion of non-oil exports.

× Agricultural mechanization has often been characterized by scale-effects and increased specialization. Such characterizations, however, fail to explain how mechanization may grow in Africa where production environments are more heterogeneous and diversification of production may help in mitigating risks from increasingly uncertain climatic conditions. Using panel data from farm households and crop-specific production costs in Nigeria, we estimate how the adoption of animal traction or tractors affects the economies of scope (EOS) between rice, non-rice grains, legume/seed crops, and other crops, which are the crop groups that are most widely grown with animal traction or tractors in Nigeria. The results indicate that the adoption of these mechanization technologies is associated with lower EOS between non-rice grains, legume/seed crops, and other crops, but greater EOS between rice and other crops. An increase in EOS for rice is indicated in both primal and dual analytical approaches. Mechanical technologies may raise EOS between crops that are grown in more heterogeneous environments, even though it may lower EOS between crops that are grown in relatively similar environments. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that shows the effects of mechanical technologies on EOS in agriculture in developing countries.

× While there are many aspects to agricultural market modernization that are linked and mutually affect and reinforce each other, we argue in this paper that investment in Nigeria in physical market infrastructure, such as storage units, remains relatively neglected, especially in rural areas. That this is the case undermines successful agricultural development in the country. We examine the transactions cost, spatial market equilibrium, and industrial policy literatures to provide a conceptual context for understanding how and why investments in physical market infrastructure can lower transactions costs for traders and for farmers, and, thus, increase market participation. We also implemented a marketplace characteristics survey in Kebbi state, an agriculture-based state in northwestern Nigeria, to determine whether further investments in marketplace infrastructure are needed. We found that some markets, especially those in rural areas, lacked storage units and communications technologies. Hence, traders and farmers in those markets operate in a challenging environment. We argue that investments such as these are likely to be more successful in the long-run and have more immediate effects on local agricultural development than would national initiatives. Local governments have better knowledge of local conditions and can better design initial investments to strengthen markets and then implement follow-on initiatives required to meet needs that arise as market conditions evolve.

× In this study, we contribute to such efforts to enhance the use of tractors in Africa by describing the key characteristics of markets for tractors in Nigeria. Nigeria is among a set of countries in Africa that has both low agricultural productivity and low agricultural mechanization growth (Malabo Montpellier Panel 2018). Current understanding of the tractor market in Nigeria mainly highlights only specific aspects of mechanization issues or only delves into the application of specific emergent mechanization technologies. Consequently, many stakeholders do not have sufficient understanding of how tractor markets in Nigeria are organized both in vertical and in geographic terms.

× The release by the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) in 2010 and its successor strategy document, the Agriculture Promotion Policy (APP), in 2016 as official policy strategy documents signals a shift in policymaker attention toward improving the performance of the agricultural sector in the country after decades of neglect. This paper discusses the potential effects of changes in agricultural production practices due to these adjustments in strategy on food consumption, and, hence, on food security and nutrition in Nigeria. We outline the theoretical linkages between changes in agricultural production patterns by farm households and their food consumption decisions.

× This paper provides a broad view of public sector support to agriculture in Nigeria, through the lens of the allocation of public expenditures by the federal government in support of the sector. We consider the adequacy and stability of agricultural public spending during the period of 2007 to 2016, drawing on data from the Ministry of Finance, the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, and other sources.

× The paper examines the role of land access in youth migration and employment decisions using a two wave panel data set from the Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) from Nigeria. Overall, the findings show that the size of expected land inheritance is significantly and negatively associated with long distance migration and migration to urban areas, while a similar impact is negligible when a broader definition of migration is adopted and when migration is deemed as temporary. A more disaggregated analysis by considering individual characteristics of the youth shows that results are more elastic for older youth and those that are less educated, while we find no difference when comparisons are made by gender. Similar analysis on the influence of land access on youth employment choices shows strong evidence that the larger the size of the expected land inheritance the lower the likelihood of the youth being involved in non-agricultural activities and a higher chance of staying in agriculture or the dual sector. The results further reveal that youth in areas with a high level of agricultural commercialization and modernization seem to be more responsive to land access considerations in making migration and employment decisions than are youth residing in less commercialized areas. Finally, the results from the differential analysis suggest that rural-to-urban migration and the likelihood of youth involvement in the dual economy is more responsive to the size of the expected land inheritance for less educated youth as compared to more educated ones.

× Informal vendors are a critical source of food security for urban residents in African cities. However, the livelihoods of these traders and the governance constraints they encounter are not well-understood outside of the region’s capital and primate cities. This study focuses on two distinct secondary cities in Nigeria, Calabar in the South-South geopolitical zone of the country and Minna in the Middle Belt region. Local and state officials in each city were interviewed on the legal, institutional, and oversight functions they provide within the informal food sector. This was complemented with a survey of 1,097 traders across the two cities to assess their demographic characteristics, contributions to local food security, key challenges they face for profitability, engagement with government actors, and degree of access to services in the markets.

× Building on the work of earlier studies that looked at trends in and returns to federal public expenditures on agriculture in Nigeria, this paper explores spending patterns at the sub-national state level over a nine-year period, as well as trends in agricultural and economic performance and indicators of household welfare. Our examination focuses on two groupings of states – the full 37 state units of Nigeria (the 36 states, plus the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja); and the seven states that are the focus in Nigeria of the Global Food Security Strategy (GFSS) of the United States Agency for International Development. Sub-national agricultural spending as a share of aggregate agricultural spending in Nigeria is large, given the stronger role for sub-national governments in agriculture than is the case in other sectors. However, we find that the share of state-level expenditures on agriculture as a share of aggregate state-level expenditures is still relatively low, an average of 3.86 percent over the period 2007 to 2015. While the prioritization of agriculture spending varies greatly year by year, the variation over time does not have a discernible long-run upwards or downwards trend. We also find that agricultural expenditures are more capital intensive than are overall public expenditures at state level, but that capital expenditures as a share of total agriculture spending has decline over the last decade, as is the case overall in Nigeria’s industrial sectors. We conclude that efforts to strengthen state-level agricultural spending in Nigeria merits greater attention, while putting in place measures to ensure improved effectiveness in any such spending.

× This paper aims to develop specific strategies for reforming the Agricultural Research Council of Nigeria (ARCN) for achieving greater efficiency, effectiveness, impact, and sustainability through its constituent institutions. Based on a two-year consultative and interactive process of internal discussion, external learning, and analysis of various restructuring options, this paper proposes specific interventions for promoting results-based approaches to priority setting, resource mobilization and allocation, effective implementation of research programs, enhanced and timely delivery of results, mon-itoring and evaluation, impact assessment, and improved networking among domestic and international partners. The paper recommends a phased approach to ARCN reforms, beginning with organizational transformation and capacity strengthening at all levels. In addition, issues, challenges, and opportunities for sustainable funding, integration of re-search, extension, education, and the regulatory mandates of ARCN are discussed. Finally, an implementation plan for restructuring ARCN is presented.

× Despite the importance of location-specific adaptive crop breeding research, past reforms of breeding systems in Nigeria have focused more on centralizing the breeding activities into fewer locations. This has been based partly on the premise that such research systems can still effectively meet the need for a diverse set of varietal technologies that are suitable for different agroecological conditions through the use of numerous outstations and multilocational trials, regardless of the locations of the headquarters or the outstations where breeders are located. However, little empirical evidence exists to support this premise. Using panel data for agricultural households in northern Nigeria, as well as spatial data on agroecological factors, this study fills this knowledge gap. Specifically, it empirically shows that agricultural productivity and technical efficiency at farm household level is significantly and positively affected by similarity between the agroecological conditions of the locations of these households and where major crop breeding institutes are headquartered in Nigeria, namely Maiduguri, Kano, Zaria, Badeggi, Ibadan, and Umudike, after controlling for the agroecological conditions and various relevant household characteristics of these households. These findings suggest that where improved varieties are developed or evaluated affects agricultural productivity and technical efficiency in different locations. Overall agricultural productivity in Nigeria can be significantly increased not simply by increasing support for public sector varietal development, but by doing so in a manner that increases the similarity in agroecological conditions between areas where crop breeding is conducted and the areas where farm households produce those crops.

× Despite growing consensus on the socio-economic benefits emanating from enhanced land tenure security, issues related to how best to measure it and what constitute universal indicators of tenure (in)security are poorly understood. As a result, issues of what drives tenure security are poorly understood and inconclusive. This study, thus, examines the drivers of perceived tenure insecurity in Nigeria using the Nigeria LSMS-Panel General Household Survey of 2012/13. The determinants of perceive tenure insecurity are assessed across two indicators: private (idiosyncratic) tenure risk and collective (covariate) tenure security risk. The analysis shows that perceived risks of private land dispute are higher for female-headed households, households with lower social/political connectedness, and for land parcels acquired via the traditional/customary system, in contrast to having been purchased. Private tenure risk/insecurity is also higher in communities with vibrant land market and for households that are located close to urban centers, while the opposite is the case in communities with relative ease of land access. On the other hand, collective tenure risk is lower in communities with improved economic status. Finally, signifying the need to account for intra-household dimensions in implementing land reform interventions, results from a more disaggregated analysis show that tenure security is relatively higher on female-managed plots of female-headed households, while the opposite is the case for female-managed plots of male-headed households.

× To better understand the drivers of chronic child undernutrition in northern Nigeria and how those drivers differ from other areas of the country, this paper presents the results of an econometric analysis of data from the 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys. A standard child-level regression based approach is used for the first part of the analysis using as the dependent variable whether the child aged 6 to 23 months is stunted (height-for-age z-score (HAZ) < -2.0). Separate models of the drivers of child stunting are developed for northern Nigeria (Northwest and Northeast geopolitical zones) in 2008 and in 2013 and for other areas of Nigeria in 2013. The analysis then is extended by comparing the model for northern Nigeria in 2013 to other areas of Nigeria in 2013 to decompose differences between the models. This was done to gain understanding on how the determinants of child stunting in children aged 6 to 23 months differ between the two areas to better understand how well successful approaches used elsewhere in Nigeria to reduce child stunting might work in northern Nigeria.

× Agricultural transformation has been slow in Nigeria despite relatively fast growth in the non-agricultural sector of the economy. The limited contributions of irrigation in the agricultural sector have been considered to be one of the causes of slow agricultural transformation in Nigeria. Irrigation is used in both public-sector and private-sector irrigation schemes. Information is, however, often limited regarding small-scale private irrigation systems and their expansion potential and constraints, as compared to information on public irrigation schemes. This paper aims to provide various qualitative indicators which can shed light on irrigation system diversity and its recent evolution in Nigeria, as well as key economic characteristics of a selected private irrigation system as a case study.

× When and why do policymakers implement land governance reforms? We address this question by focusing on differential implementation of Systematic Land Tenure Regularization (SLTR) across six states in Nigeria. Although improved land governance has many long-term benefits, including developed property and housing markets, increased agricultural investment, and an expanded source of revenue, the short-term outcomes are less visible to citizens. In theory, this would create low political incentives for implementation among policymakers. In practice, we observe higher levels of implementation in some states compared to others despite almost universally low public demand for SLTR. To explain this puzzle, we use a structured comparative analysis that draws on interviews with more than 90 federal and state-level stakeholders in Cross River, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Ondo states. We find that the collective presence of bureaucratic autonomy, diversity of donor funding, and continuity in state government administrations are more likely to explain where SLTR implementation has progressed the most.

× The burden in northern Nigeria of chronic malnutrition, particularly undernutrition, is among the heaviest globally. Close to half of all under-fives in the Northeast and Northwest geopolitical zones were estimated to be stunted in their growth for their age in 2013, compared to 22 percent in the rest of Nigeria. To inform discussions on future programming to address drivers of undernutrition, a rapid scoping study of chronic malnutrition in northern Nigeria was conducted. This report presents findings drawn from interviews with key informants and focus group discussions in Kebbi and Bauchi states and in Abuja conducted in April and May 2017.

× In this study, we measure the degree to which a change in key macroeconomic variables, such as the global oil price, influences the ability for state Ministries of Agriculture to sustain agricultural program funding. To highlight the issue of dependence of state governments on the federal allocation, and the state Ministry of Agriculture on donor funds, a two-period simulation model was developed to represent the economy of Kaduna, a Nigerian state with a relatively large geographic scope and population. The simulation model results show that changes in the global oil price and levels of donor funds can have pronounced effects on state government and Ministry of Agriculture budgets. This implies that improved coordination between the FMARD and state Ministries of Agriculture and institutional mechanisms that can provide funding relief for state Ministries of Agriculture during poor fiscal conditions periods would help sustain agricultural programs over time.

× In this paper, we investigate the implications of urbanization on child nutritional outcomes using satellite-based nighttime light intensity data as a proxy for urbanization and urban growth. We employ two rounds (2008 and 2013) of geo-referenced and nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Nigeria. The DHS data provide detailed anthropometric measures of child nutritional outcomes along with a series of control variables. We merge these geo-referenced DHS data with nighttime light intensity data for the survey clusters in which the DHS sample households reside. This nighttime light introduces a continuous gradient of urbanization permitting investigation of the implications of urbanization on child nutritional outcomes along an urbanization continuum. The longitudinal nature of the nighttime data allows us to examine the dynamics of urbanization and its implication on child nutrition.

× We examine the linkages between government institutions within the Nigerian federal government system; the historical funding levels for agricultural programs in the country; the influence of key macroeconomic variables, such as the global oil price, on the fiscal conditions for various government institutions; and the extent to which the effects of those changes are passed-through between levels of government. We use these findings to explore potential mechanisms that can increase the likelihood of sustaining funding for agricultural programs over time.

× Youth employment is not an entirely new topic for research and policy. Recent estimates from the International Labour Organisation (ILO) (2013a) suggest that high and rising unemployment rates among youth remain a key challenge to global development, especially in the developing world. This is particularly important in sub-Saharan Africa where about 85 percent of youth (defined by the ILO as all those between the ages of 15 and 24 years) are poor, 70 percent live in rural areas where agriculture is the main source for their income and subsistence, and 11 million youth are expected to enter the labor market every year for the next decade (World Bank 2014). These characteristics of youth in sub-Saharan Africa justify the centrality of the nexus between youth employment and agriculture in formulating development policy on the continent. At the same time, youth unemployment is currently one of the issues receiving attention at the top of the global development agenda.

× In Nigeria, despite the scarcity of tractors, average horsepower and prices of tractors appear high. These patterns are different from the experiences in other parts of the world where initially tractor horsepower was often smaller, such as Asia, or farmers were better endowed with land and wealth, such as Latin America. In Nigeria, joint ownership of tractors is rare, and formal loans are often unavailable due to high transactions costs. IFPRI’s survey in Kaduna and Nasarawa states in 2013 suggested that the spatial mobility of tractors is generally low and the use of tractors is highly seasonal. There do not seem to be plausible explanations for the seeming dominance of large tractor use based on available information on prices and soils. Nevertheless, these patterns seem driven by the own initiative of the private sector rather than by government policies. Indivisibility of large tractors and limited mobility of supplies may cause imperfections in the custom tractor hiring market. In order to distinguish the impacts of technology adoption at the extensive margin from those at the intensive margin, in the empirical analyses for the research presented here we tested these hypotheses focusing on the differences among marginal adopters of tractor hiring services and non-adopters with similar characteristics. The results are three-fold: (1) adoptions patterns of tractor services are partly explained by basic factor endowments, suggesting that the market for custom hiring is in some way functioning efficiently in response to economic conditions; (2) adoptions are, however, affected by supply-side factors, including the presence of large farm households (and thus potential tractor owners) within the district, and (3) per capita household expenditure level differs significantly between the marginal adopters and non-adopters with similar characteristics. This difference seems to arise from adoption per se, rather than the intensity of adoption, which is consistent with the hypothesis of imperfection in the custom tractor hiring market.

× Poverty and a lack of awareness seem to be at the heart of the problem of childhood malnutrition in Nigeria. Until the socioeconomic status of the vast majority of Nigerians improves significantly, malnutrition will continue to pose a serious threat to the growth and development of Nigerian children and the future of national development. Significant variations exist in the level of child and maternal malnutrition across rural/urban settings, geopolitical zones, and agro-ecological bands in Nigeria. Malnutrition rates are higher among rural households who depend more on agriculture than on other sectors for their livelihoods. A range of socioeconomic, demographic, and public health related factors work together to influence maternal and child nutrition outcomes among rural and urban dwellers across the geopolitical zones and agro-ecological zones in Nigeria.

× Seed is an essential input in agriculture, and the availability of quality seed of superior varieties is often critical for improved food security and poverty reduction in developing countries like Nigeria. However, while the Nigerian government recognizes the importance of improving seed availability, its recent focus in the seed sector has mostly been on improving seed quality rather than on varietal development. This report argues that this is partly due to a knowledge gap regarding the relationship between varietal technology levels and the effectiveness of seed sector policies. We first provide a brief conceptual discussion on how the effectiveness of selected seed sector policies, such as certification, subsidies, and private sector promotion, may depend on underlying varietal technology levels. Using rice as an example, we then provide key historical and international perspectives on how varietal technology development by the public sector through intensive rice breeding had pre-ceded the expansion of seed certification and testing, and show that there still is a substantial need for the Nigerian government to develop improved rice varieties through intensified domestic plant breeding in order for its seed certification and seed subsidy programs to be more effective.

× This study assesses the short-term effects of large irrigation dams on household consumption in the northern part of Nigeria. Using two rounds of the Nigeria LSMS survey, we apply multinomial logit inverse probability weighting (MIPW) methods to construct matching samples across three different types of hydrological basins – dam basins, which are basins that contain large irrigation dams and the area upstream of such dams; downstream basins, which are located downstream of large irrigation dams; and non-dam basins, which are not associated with large irrigation dams. Our analyses particularly focus on the benefits provided by such dams for mitigating the drought risks faced by farm households. Drought is an important factor that affects adversely the welfare of farm household in Nigeria. Supplemental irrigation is often used during drought to provide water to crops.

× This study contributes to filling the knowledge gap on the determinants of public spending. It draws on the frame-work of actor-centered institutionalism to empirically examine how the characteristics, incentives, and exchanges of different actors affect the prioritization of public investments. The study also provides insights into how the characteristics of public investments interface with actors’ incentives to influence expenditure choices.

× This paper makes a contribution to this literature by drawing on the framework of actor-centered institutionalism (Scharpf 1997) to empirically examine how political and budget institutions affect the incentives of actors involved in the public agricultural finance process, structures the interactions between them, and ultimately shapes expenditure allocations

× Over the last decade, land governance has become a major priority for the development community.1 A particular focus has been on sub-Saharan Africa due to the recognized paradox of high levels of land availability and low productivity in the region (see Deininger et al. 2012). While poor land governance systems have long been identified as a key reason for this disjuncture, the relatively recent large-scale impetus to improve land governance emerged from the inclusion of land management in 2009 as one of the four pillars under the African Union’s Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Develop-ment Program (CAADP). Subsequently, in the wake of the G-8’s launch of the New Alliance for Food Security and Nutri-tion in 2012, many international initiatives have emerged to promote better land governance. These include the African Union’s Land Policy Initiative (AULPI) and the World Bank’s Land Governance Assessment Framework (LGAF). At the national level in Africa, land registration and land titling are the most common approaches to reform (Sikor and Müller 2009), with governments selecting among a broad spectrum of modalities to pilot. These include rural land use plans in some francophone countries (e.g., Benin, Burkina Faso, and Côte d’Ivoire), systematic land tenure regularization (Ethio-pia, Madagascar, Rwanda), and communal land demarcation and registration (e.g., Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania) (see Byamugisha 2013).

× This paper assesses the nature of land administration service delivery in Nigeria using data collected from three sets of participants in land administration processes: 76 service providers, 253 beneficiaries, and 172 professionals. The data were collected from eight states selected from the six geopolitical zones of the country—Cross River, Benue, Bauchi, Ekiti, Enugu, Kaduna, and Lagos states, plus the Federal Capital Territory (Abuja). These were chosen because they are considered to have advanced land administration systems. Our findings show that land registration processes in Nigeria take a long time: nearly 80 percent of beneficiaries and 41 percent of professionals responded that land registration took more than two years to complete after first apply-ing. This difference between beneficiaries and professionals may stem from the fact that many professionals, who gener-ally are better educated, may know more about the application process than do beneficiaries and are able to navigate the process more efficiently. Land registration information guidelines seem to be rarely available to the public. Consequently, the dominant means of access to land administration institutions is through direct contact. Coordination among govern-ance structures put in place by states for land administration also was found to be poor, especially in Bauchi and Enugu states, where very low levels of cooperation on issues related to land administration reforms were observed.

× We use an industry profit maximization model to conduct an ex-post impact assessment on the extent the rice milling sector in Nigeria has grown and improved its performance in producing high quality premium rice following major public sector interventions made under the Agricultural Transformation Agenda. Given challenges with the availability and qual-ity of data, this assessment looks at the changes between two periods, 2009 and 2013, and simulates the performance of the sector under different technology capacities and policy scenarios. We find that the government has been success-ful in expanding quality paddy production and milling capacity in the country along with an increase in capacity utilization in the medium and large-scale milling sub-sectors. As a result, the production of premium quality rice has increased by approximately 0.5 million metric tons between the two periods. Despite these gains, the industry did not see any overall increase in employment in the medium and large-scale sub-sectors. Further focus by the government on expanding the supply of high quality rice paddy, while maintaining high tariffs to keep the medium and large scale milling sector viable, may provide the best opportunity for Nigeria to reach its goal of self-sufficiency in rice production.

× This study focuses on intergovernmental interactions in Nigeria’s Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). ATA may not be able to achieve its desired objectives unless the intergovernmental and inter-agency interactions are well understood, coordinated, and integrated into the design and implementation of the various ATA programs, especially those that are still being developed. Unfortunately, the interactions among the three tiers of government in Nigeria is still not recognized by policy makers as a major issue in refining the design of the transformation process and reinforcing it. No tier of government acting alone in making decisions that affect all three tiers of government can create an environment that will be sufficiently enabling to ensure that farmers and other beneficiaries of ATA initiatives receive the maximum benefits obtainable. If the buy-in of a particular level of government is not properly and meaningfully secured, implementation of programs can be fraught with de-lays and avoidable costs. These may jeopardize the sustainability of ATA.

× This study (i) examines the implementation of recent agricultural finance policies and incentives associated with the Nigerian Incentive-based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL) and the stimulus funds for boosting agricultural lending, the Commercial Agricultural Credit Scheme (CACS), (ii) determines the impact of these financial capital interven-tions (stimulus to the banking sector) through the instrumentality of CACS on the flow of credit to the agricultural sector, (iii) examines the factors militating against increased funding of agriculture by the banking sector, and (iv) articulates policies and strategies for improved participation of the banking sector in agricultural financing in Nigeria. The study was executed using data obtained from all the commercial banks in the country in a survey conducted between March and September 2013 plus secondary data covering the period from 2006 to 2012. The study focuses on two hypotheses, namely; (i) the stimulus provided by the government to the banking sector to boost agricultural financing has led to significant agricultural credit expansion; and (ii) commercial banks have been less risk-adverse to agricultural lending due to the capital infusion to the banking sector by the government to stimulate agricultural lending. These hypotheses were tested using random-effects Tobit econometric analysis.

× Utilizing a spatial multi-market model for rice in Nigeria that explicitly takes into account the potential for smuggling, in this paper we analyze the welfare implications of alternative rice tariff rates given the government’s goals of spurring domestic production and reducing imports. Because smuggling occurs through the diversion of imports from Lagos, the official port of entry in the south, to the north, our modeling framework also captures the spatial effects of higher tariffs on changes in rural and urban prices, production and consumption, the flow of trade in rice, and welfare across different parts of the country. Results show that tariff rates that exceed about 40 percent introduce some smuggling of rice through the north when smuggling becomes more profitable than importing through official channels in the south. It is also at this tipping point that government tariff revenues are maximized. At higher tariff rates with smuggling, the south experiences greater welfare losses, especially in urban areas.

× Nigeria liberalized input distribution and established the Growth Enhancement Support Scheme (GESS) in 2011 to deliver subsidized inputs to farmers as part of its Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). Despite the relevance of the GESS as a subsidy delivery mechanism, its achievements during the first year of imple-mentation (2012) were below expectations. In 2015, as the first phase of the GESS is ending, has there been any significant improvement in its implementation? What improvements have occurred in redemption and par-ticipation rates? Even though the GESS is known to be making contributions in terms of ensuring direct access by farmers to subsidized inputs, the main determinants of farmers’ participation remain unknown. This study seeks to (i) examine the application of ICT innovations in the implementation of the GESS; (ii) assess its im-plementation performance from inception to date; and (iii) determine the factors influencing farmers’ participa-tion in the scheme. The study is timely and has significant policy relevance judging by the desire of the govern-ment of Nigeria to understand the performance of the GESS in view of the enormous financial and material resources that have been committed to the scheme since its inception in 2012. An evaluation of the perfor-mance of the GESS will provide the government with feedback required for making adjustments in input sub-sidy spending, especially in the face of the recently declining oil revenues. It becomes imperative to have evi-

× The objectives of the research described in this report are to: provide general field information on physical, social, and institutional conditions in the pilot areas Kano and Ondo states that can be used to assess existing land tenure policy in Nigeria; assess the differentiated effect of existing land laws and practices on men and women in terms of access to, control over, and distribution of land by collecting gender-disaggregated data; contribute to better understanding of the magnitude, scope, and severity of tenure insecurity in the context of existing land laws and land policies; assess the efficiency of land-administration related service delivery by the public sector (e.g., dispute resolu-tion mechanisms).

× Transformation of the agricultural sector has become a development imperative for many African countries in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals that relate to improved food security and reduced hunger. Nigeria is no excep-tion and has recently initiated its own program with this objective, the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). Lessons from transforming traditional agriculture in the past have shown that for every level of sectoral transformation, corresponding levels of organizational and individual human capacity must be attained as well. This report presents the findings and recom-mendations of a capacity needs assessment study carried out between July and September 2012 in the context of the ATA. In this paper, we document an approach to capacity strengthening in the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Develop-ment (FMARD) to implement the ATA. The objectives of this report include mapping key institutions and stakeholders, ana-lyzing institutional capacity strengths and gaps, and making recommendations to improve these capacities in relation to their proposed implementation roles.

× We document that structural change accounts for approximately one-fifth of the total change in labor productivity in Nigeria between 1996 and 2009. Labor moved out of the agricultural and wholesale and retail trade sectors into manufacturing, transportation and communications, business services, and general services. While structural change did occur in this period, significant gains to aggregate labor productivity are still available from further shifts of labor to higher-productivity sectors. We discuss the factors limiting structural change, which include poor agricultural productivity, insufficient infrastruc-ture to support high productivity sectors, and a lack of appropriate skills in the labor force. We calculate that the gains still available to Nigeria from structural change are equivalent to an increase in value-added of 25 percent, given the existing productivity levels of sectors in 2009.

× Despite the rapid pace of urbanization taking place in Nigeria, half of Nigerians (approximately 70 million individuals) still live in rural areas; most of them engaged in smallholder semi-subsistence agriculture. Agriculture remains a crucial sector in the Nigerian economy, being a major source of raw materials, food and foreign exchange; employing over 70 percent of the Nigerian labor force, and serving as a potential vehicle for diversifying the Nigerian economy. However, there are no rigorous studies that explain productivity in this sector vis-à-vis the relationship of the sector to food security and social capital. This review assesses the nature and scope of agricultural productivity, food security, and social capital in Nigeria, while also laying the groundwork for investigating the interrelationships among them. The literature reveals the pervasive inefficiency of Nigerian farmers as most smallholder farmers produce significantly below their production frontiers. As a result, they produce less than optimal levels of output as revealed by studies of productivity (mostly land productivity). Also, while many farming enterprises are profitable, profit margins are generally low. The vast majority of Nigerians are reported to be food insecure as revealed by studies on availability, utilization, and access to food. In terms of social capital, most studies are focused on membership in formal or informal organizations or associations, or by the access of individuals or associations to formal and informal sources of credit. Evidence shows that both measures of social capital improve several aspects of social welfare, particularly poverty reduction, in addition to influencing technology adoption. This review also identifies the potential pathways through which all three concepts are linked.

× This paper presents the findings of a case study on land governance in the Ondo State of Nigeria. A conceptual framework based on concepts of organizational theory is presented to guide the study. The empirical part of the study focuses on two cases of land registration and two cases of land acquisition. A participatory mapping method called “Process Net-Map” was used to identify the actors and the processes involved. The study shows that the costs of land registration are around 10 percent of the land value if landowners have access to intermediaries and if they can pay for privately provided land services in cash. Otherwise, landowners may incur much higher costs due to governance problems. In the case of land acquisition by the state, the study found that major problems do not arise because of a lack of land registration, but rather because of governance problems involved in the disbursement of compensation funds. The study discusses the implications of the findings for land governance reforms in Ondo State.

× Agriculture is the largest contributor to the economic well-being of most Nigerians. For the agriculture sector to continue to grow, research-based knowledge of the existing agricultural practices, the potential of the sector, the approach for transforming the sector, and the impact of the transformation on the economy, sector, and population is needed. It has also been shown that agriculture R&D could increase agriculture growth and reduce poverty (Fan 2008; Thirtle et al. 2003). Therefore, research-based evidence is important to guide decisions that affect Nigeria's agriculture sector and its people. The quality and effectiveness of policy-making depend to a large extent on the quality of knowledge on which decisions are based (Hovland, 2003). Policy decisions could be shaped by the political, institutional, and cultural environments in which information and knowledge are produced, disseminated, and exchanged among stakeholders. According to Carden (2004), research findings may not have immediate and direct influence on decisions, but over time, their impact can be seen more clearly. The release of a research report represents an occasion for collective discussion and perhaps reconsideration of the issues raised by the report. Thus, understanding how knowledge and information are produced and disseminated, and how policymakers use it, should be an essential piece of agriculture policy and development strategy. An effective national agricultural research system (NARS1) is required for high quality research. The NARS researchers need to have access to recent, high quality literature, methodology, and data; and the capacity to use this information analytically to lay a solid foundation for research applicable to Nigeria's agriculture sector. In addition, other stakeholders in the agriculture industry, such as policymakers, educators, students, development partners, members of the private sector, and extension personnel, need high quality, relevant, and timely agricultural information to make good strategic decisions (Popoola, 2008).

× Small-scale private irrigation schemes (SPRI) have been the driving force behind the expansion of irrigated areas in Nigeria, despite government efforts to promote large-scale public irrigation schemes. SPRI allows adjustment of irrigation schedules in accordance with observed crop needs. The irrigated area in Nigeria is, however, far below its potential and an increase in farmers� investment in irrigation is essential. While Nigerian farmers� low level of investment in irrigation may be partly due to low returns, it is also the result of high transaction costs associated specifically with making such an investment. Although reducing transaction costs is important because the reduction provides farmers with a more enabling environment, transaction costs are often unobservable and little is known about what factors contribute to them. This article empirically assesses the effect of unobserved transaction costs for Nigerian farmers� when investing in irrigation pumps, using the baseline survey data for the Second Fadama Development Program (Fadama II). The results indicate that the unobserved transaction costs are higher for female landless farmers, with higher dependency ratio and residing far from town. The results suggest that the unobserved transaction costs can be as important as the factors determining the profitability of irrigation pump, emphasizing the importance of reducing transaction costs in addition to improving the environment for higher return from irrigation investment.

× Despite recent studies on improved seed varieties estimating the adoption rates of maize in 1998 at 40 percent (Manyong et al. 2000) and rice at 60 percent (Larsson 2005), true adoption rates appear to be unknown. This knowledge gap exists due to the ambiguity surrounding what constitutes improved varieties in Nigeria, because they become mixed with traditional varieties once they are adopted and start being traded in the informal seed sector. Given existing evidence and the above caveat, it may be concluded that the rate at which the newly improved varieties of rice, cowpea, and maize are spread among farmers in Nigeria is significantly lower than expected. This slow adoption rate can be attributed to constraints on both the supply and demand sides. Supply side constraints have often been analyzed at various stages, including seed production, distribution, and certification. On the other hand, the constraints on the demand side have not been sufficiently analyzed and there is little systematic understanding of such constraints. Seed demand in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) exhibits distinctive characteristics which differ from the demand in the rest of the world. Diversity in seed demand behavior across farmers is particularly prominent in SSA. This diversity is due to (1) the large number of farmers using seed relative to the aggregate quantity of seed demanded; (2) farmers' inability to overcome their specific agro ecological and socioeconomic environments; and (3) poorly integrated markets. One key goal in characterizing Nigerian farmers' seed demand is improving the public sector's ability to predict which of them are likely to adopt new and improved varieties in the foreseeable future given their agro ecological and socioeconomic situations. This review focuses primarily on the demand for improved seeds of rice, cowpea, and maize. The key research questions addressed in this review are: (1) how has seed demand in SSA been generally characterized, (2) how does such characterization apply to Nigeria, (3) what are the knowledge gaps that, when filled, will allow the public sector to better target the farmers who are likely to adopt improved seeds in Nigeria in the foreseeable future? To that end, this review first describes determinant factors and diversity patterns of farmers' seed demand observed in Eastern and Southern Africa and reported by Minot et al (2007). The study then reviews relevant studies in Nigeria to assess (1) whether any empirical studies on Nigeria report evidence that the same patterns apply to Nigeria; and 2) how such characteristics lead to the demand for specific forms of support from the public sector. This review also discusses some of the unique characteristics of rice, cowpea, and maize, as well as the unique characteristics of Nigerian socioeconomic conditions relevant to the seed sector, in order to highlight how such uniqueness relates to country- and crop-specific characteristics of seed demand in Nigeria. This review contributes to the literature in two ways. First, it brings together the main studies in Nigeria which analyze farmers� seed demand behaviors and identifies the key knowledge gaps that should be filled by future empirical studies in Nigeria. Second, the review provides further evidence from Nigeria on the general characteristics of SSA farmers' seed demand compiled by Minot et al (2007) in Eastern and Southern Africa. Reported evidence generally supports the proposition that farmers' demand for seed is highly diverse, and is affected significantly by agro-ecological and socio-economic conditions. Such evidence suggests the need for a more systematic understanding of farmers' demand to assist seed sector policy formulation.

× Small-scale private irrigation (SPRI) schemes make up most of the irrigated area in Nigeria, although they constitute only about three percent of the cultivated area in the country. Farmers' demand for SPRI is potentially affected by diverse sets of agroecological, socioeconomic and risk factors. While the constraints on SPRI expansion have been well investigated by many studies in Nigeria, key knowledge gaps in at least four areas, still need to be resolved. These gaps are: (1) lack of knowledge of water sources; (2) perceptions of risks associated with rainfall and access to good quality water; (3) transaction costs associated with investments in irrigation; and (4) effectiveness of public institutions activities in SPRI.

× Low fertilizer use is professed to be among the many reasons for low agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Fertilizer application, estimated at 13 kg/ha in 2009 by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, is far lower than the 200 kg/ha recommended by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). This report reviews the status of the fertilizer sector in Nigeria on the basis of a thorough overview of existing literature on Nigeria, reports on recent survey results, and analytic work conducted by IFPRI in Nigeria under the Global Food Security Response (GFSR) initiative of the USAID. It synthesizes the findings on key fertilizer issues in Nigeria, focusing on the demand and supply environment, the role played by subsidies, the regulatory environment, and the use of the vouchers system to aid fertilizer distribution. A key finding is that the heavy emphasis on price subsidization to the detriment of other approaches, such as complementary actions to improve farmers� fertilizer-use techniques, has hampered market development. Three policy recommendations arise from this report. First, the initial step the government should take should be to eliminate the existence of dual fertilizer markets by establishing the primal role of the private sector in fertilizer production, procurement and distribution. Second, the government should seek policy stability by reducing the frequency of government intervention in preference to building capacity in the private sector to handle all levels of the fertilizer value chain activities. Finally, it should provide a clear assignment of monitoring and regulatory roles, which are needed at every stage of fertilizer production (including blending) and distribution with a broader reach of regulatory activities at peri-urban and rural markets.

× This study analyzes the application of an input voucher program implemented in 2009 in two Nigerian states, Kano and Taraba. Using primary data collected from 1000 households, we explore the effect of the voucher program on the quantity and quality of fertilizer received, the timeliness of receipt, and the price paid by respondents. The findings indicate that program participants in both states were more formally educated than non participants, purchased fertilizer in groups, and had previously used subsidized fertilizer. Voucher program participants in our sample were more likely to receive subsidized fertilizer and in fact received 2.5 (Kano) and 3.5 (Taraba) more bags of subsidized fertilizer than non participants. They paid less than the market price but higher than was paid for subsidized fertilizer from other sources outside the program. Program participants in Taraba received their fertilizer late, and were more likely to be unsatisfied regarding unwanted substances found in their subsidized fertilizer. In Kano, there was no significant correlation found among participants in the study and the likelihood that they would either receive their fertilizer late, be unhappy about the quantity of the fertilizer received, or angry about the presence of unwanted substances in their fertilizer.

× Nigerian farmers have been slow in adopting improved seeds due to constraints in both supply and demand. Demand-side constraints pertain to farmers’ characteristics, while supply-side constraints are related to capacity. Farmers’ seed demand is complex, and empirical information on Nigerian farmers’ seed demand is scarce. One of the less-studied issues is farmers’ preference for obtaining seeds closer to planting time. Farmers often purchase seed around planting time, when seed prices tend to be higher. On the other hand, the formal seed sector, often constrained by capacity, distributes seed before or after planting time but not at planting time. Knowing whether farmers are willing to pay higher prices for seeds at planting time may provide useful information on whether the formal seed sector can significantly raise the adoption of improved seeds by ensuring their availability around this season. This study estimates the premium that farmers are willing to pay for seeds if they can buy the seeds one month closer to planting time, and how this premium varies across farmers with different income levels and specific crops (cowpea, rice, and maize).

× Malnutrition rates among children 0-36 months and women of reproductive age in Nigeria are high and vary significantly across rural-urban locations, geopolitical regions, and agroecological zones, constituting a significant public health challenge. Using National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) 2003 data, we sought to understand better what the determinants of child and maternal nutrition are and whether they differ significantly in terms of their nature, levels, and effects across these domains. We also sought to understand what implications any significant differences would have for policy responses. A range of socioeconomic, demographic, and public health related factors work together to influence maternal and child nutrition outcomes among rural and urban dwellers across the geopolitical regions and agroecological zones. Our analyses show some major variables that influence maternal and child nutrition including household economic status, having a household head predominantly engaged with agriculture, maternal work to earn income, and maternal education or knowledge. Other determinants include mother's age, decision-making on her income and her health, percent of children under five years in a household, child based characteristics such as age and sex, dietary diversity and meal frequency, and public health services such as having antenatal care and vaccinations. The results indicate that while the effect of some determinants cuts across many of the rural and urban regions and zones, the effects of other determinants are more localized in rural or urban settings of particular regions and zones. While maternal education and knowledge are critical for improved maternal and child nutrition, efforts to improve household economic status, increase the rural farmers' benefits from agriculture, and empower mothers to earn income and take decisions, complemented with nutritional and public health services, are more likely to improve both child and maternal nutrition in the rural areas than in urban, especially in regions with the highest burden of malnutrition. Current levels of determinants appear linked more to policy implementation challenges than to the lack of or deficient components of policies to effectively address these determinants. To substantially improve nutrition conditions of mothers and children in rural Nigeria, strengthening or reviewing current policy and implementation processes in key areas is critical.

× This study assesses public investment required for agricultural growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Using time series data for public spending and agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth, the econometrically estimated results show that one percent of growth in agricultural spending generates 0.24 percent of growth in agricultural TFP. To support 9.5 percent in agricultural annual growth in 2009-17, a growth rate from the economy-wide analysis on options of growth for poverty reduction (Diao et al. 2009), required agricultural investment would have to grow at 23.8 percent annually in the same period. However, if the spending efficiency were improved based on an estimated elasticity for Sub-Saharan Africa as whole, then required agricultural investment would grow at 13.6 percent per year instead. The study also shows that investment outside agriculture benefits the agricultural sector. By taking into account such indirect effect of public investment, required growth in agricultural spending is much lower.

× Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. The 2006 provisional census counted over 140 million people (United Nations 2007), 64 percent of whom live in rural areas. These rural areas are undergoing radical, noticeable change, particularly in the agricultural sector. The agricultural sector is increasingly market-oriented and has seen a diversification of income opportunities and an increasing division of labor. It is therefore important to have a highly efficient rural service sector that fosters agricultural productivity and development outcomes. However, access to rural services, has only had marginal impacts in the agricultural sector. Rural households, therefore, continue to face poor access to agricultural and social services. These gaps in rural service provision need to be closed in order to enable the countryside to mobilize its development potential. To distinguish rural from urban development, one must define �rural.� Demographers classify a population as rural based on the size or occupational distribution of residents and the geographical characteristics of the area. Most definitions consider an area rural if people work or live on farms. The number of residents in a population considered rural differs from less than 2000 (Reardon et al. 2001) to less than 5001 (Acemoglu et al. 2001) to less than 10,000 people (International Fund for Agricultural Development 2001). In Nigeria, areas with populations above 20,000 are considered urban, meaning that rural areas have sizes below this cut-off (Onokerhoraye 1984). Decentralization has become a key issue in development policy in the last two decades. Decentralization is a process of transitioning from a governance structure in which power is concentrated at the central or national level to one in which authority to make decisions and implement them is shifted to lower level governments or agencies. It consists of a transfer of public functions from higher tiers to lower tiers of governance.

× This paper reviews the constraints hindering growth of agricultural productivity in Nigeria by providing an overview of the policy environment that affects agricultural productivity, establishing how the policy environment affects productivity improvement, and proposing lessons relevant for future research and policymaking to promote productivity growth in Nigeria

× Since registering a disappointing growth of 1.2 percent in 2002, Nigeria's economic performance has rebounded, averaging growth at 7.3 percent between then and 2007. However, the pressing challenge for the nation lies in maintaining and improving current economic growth indicators and translating these recent gains into an improved standard of living for the majority of its citizens. Poverty within Nigeria remains staggeringly high with over 50 percent and 70 percent of its general and rural population respectively, living on less than US1$ a day. Similarly, though Nigeria is often cited as one of the largest oil exporting countries, agriculture still remains the main employer of over 70 percent of the country’s labor force and accounts for about 31 percent of the nation’s GDP. Consequently, the importance of this sector in national development and poverty alleviation cannot be overemphasized.

× Gender analysis focuses on the different roles and responsibilities of women and men and how these affect society, culture, the economy and politics. For example, important differences exist between women and men in their quality of life; in the amount, kind and recognition of work they do; in health and literacy levels; and in their economic, political and social standing. Women are too often marginalized in their families and their communities, suffering from a lack of access to credit, land, education, decision-making power and rights to work. Explicitly, while gender analysis focuses on the relations between men and women, such analyses including the ones that will later be cited in this paper, disproportionately find that women have less access to, and control of, resources than men which is why this paper emphasizes the role of women, and their well-being in agriculture, nutrition and food security. Not surprisingly, women therefore comprise the majority of the world’s poor in both the urban and rural sectors and the majority of those working in the informal sector (Spieldoch 2007). There are 450 million women and men working as agricultural laborers worldwide who do not own or rent the land on which they do not work nor the tools and equipment they use. These workers comprise over 40 percent of the world‘s agricultural labor force often living below the poverty line and forming part of the majority of the rural poor in many parts of the world (FAOILO-IUF 2005). The number of waged female agricultural workers, currently at 20-30 percent of the waged workforce is increasing (Spieldoch 2007). According to the United Nations (2006), women are responsible for over half the world’s food production. In developing countries, rural women produce between 60-80 percent of the food and are the main producers of the world’s staple crops (such as rice, wheat, maize), which provide up to 90 percent of the rural poor’s food intake. Women dominate the production of legumes and vegetables in small plots, raise poultry and small animals and provide most of the labor for post-harvest activities such as storage, handling and processing of grains. The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) indicates that women produce as much as 80 percent of the basic foodstuffs for household consumption and sale in Sub-Saharan Africa (FAO-ILO-IUF 2005). According to Huston (1993), women share of food production in Africa is estimated at 80 percent while Mijindadi (1993) asserted that in Nigeria women are responsible for about 70 percent of actual farm work and constitute up to 60 percent of the farming population.

× Nigeria is still characterized by high reliance on food imports. Malnutrition is widespread in the entire country and rural areas are especially vulnerable to chronic food shortages, malnutrition, unbalanced nutrition, erratic food supply, poor quality foods, high food costs, and even total lack of food. This phenomenon cuts across all age groups and categories of individuals in the rural areas. There is a high level of malnutrition among children in rural Nigeria; the figures differ with geopolitical zones, with 56 percent reported in a rural area of South West and 84.3 percent in three rural communities in the northern part of Nigeria. Nationally, the overall prevalence of stunting, wasting, and underweight are 42.0 percent, 9 percent and 25 percent, respectively. The problem of food and nutrition security in Nigeria has not been adequately and critically analyzed, despite various approaches at addressing the challenge. The enormous amount of money spent in attempting to assure the food security of Nigerians without success calls for a fundamental review of the past approaches and achievements to see what lessons can be learned to re-strategize and develop an approach that will ensure that better progress is made toward achieving the first Millennium Development Goal. Since the majority of Nigerians (70 percent) live in rural areas, an analysis of the food and nutrition security status of rural dwellers will provide a clear picture of what needs to be done to assure food security in Nigeria with the attendant improvements in nutrition status when all the other necessary conditions, such as adequate health and care, are present. The main objective of this knowledge review was to collect and summarize available secondary literature on food and nutrition security in rural Nigeria. The framework for the analysis of food and nutrition security details the factors responsible for low consumption of food and resulting malnutrition. The socioeconomic and political environment at the national and subnational level is the principal determinant of food security, since it influences food availability, stability of food supplies, and access to food, which in turn influence the amount of food consumed. When these factors interact with the health and sanitation environment as well as care practices they determine the nutritional status of the individual. There is a dearth of national surveys providing datasets for the analysis of food and nutrition security in rural Nigeria. Though there have been a number of individual and institutional efforts and attempts at generating databases on food and nutrition security for Nigeria, these efforts are hampered by inadequate funds to implement large-scale surveys. Fundamentally, we find that food insecurity and malnutrition in rural areas of Nigeria result from non implementation and/or faulty implementation of the National Food and Nutrition Policy and National Plan of Action for Food and Nutrition. Other reasons identified include unacceptably high levels of poverty in rural households, low priority for nutrition on the agenda of government and resulting poor funding, poor understanding by policymakers of the content of nutrition programs in relation to other sectors, poor infant and child feeding practices, inadequate access to healthy environment and health services as well as various care practices. The review concludes that the existing knowledge of food and nutrition security in rural areas of Nigeria does not offer detailed information to the household level, at which greater understanding is required to help design interventions that will change the unacceptable food and nutrition situation of rural dwellers in Nigeria. This gap needs to be filled to make progress in changing the food and nutrition security situation of rural dwellers in Nigeria. Identified gaps in knowledge include the issue of mainstreaming nutrition considerations and activities into poverty reduction, agricultural development policies, and food security interventions. There is a need to understand and appreciate the distinctness of nutrition and prioritize its appropriate integration into all sectors and departments working on food security in Nigeria. Similarly, knowledge of the impact of seasonal variations, the environment, and livelihoods on food usage, consumption patterns, food coping strategies, and food and nutrition security status is important for action in Nigeria. The knowledge gaps also include understanding the interconnectedness of gender factors and their roles in achieving household food and nutrition security, and understanding the impact of an integrated approach such as the integration of gender, environment, nutrition and agricultural activities, in achieving livelihoods for women, household food and nutrition security. The review recommends a strategic partnership and collaboration of all stakeholders to produce datasets that will allow for new directions and a plan of action to seek a comprehensive integration of nutrition and coordination of food security interventions among all partners at all levels, particularly in government ministries and agencies. This multi-stakeholder and multidimensional approach is required for an effective mainstreaming, integration and coordination of food and nutrition activities.

× This study assessed the capacity for designing and implementing agricultural and rural development policies, strategies, and programs in Nigeria. Data for this study were derived from initial consultations at the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources (FMAWR), Federal Ministry of Women affairs and Social Development (FMWASD), and the Federal Ministry of Environment (FMEnv) early in 2008. Two consultation workshops were also held, one for relevant staff in the ministries, parastatals, and NGOs; and the other for relevant university professors and researchers. This was followed by a review of relevant literature and a more detailed survey of institutions and individuals. A sample of relevant institutions and individuals were purposively selected from the Federal Capital, Abuja, Oyo, Kaduna, Enugu Ogun, Benue, and Abia States. At each location, trained data collectors compiled a list of state and federal agencies, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and universities where 32 institutional questionnaires were administered, of which 29 were valid for further analysis. Similarly, 320 individual questionnaires were administered, of which 183 were valid for further analysis. The null hypothesis that job satisfaction and institutional incentive was independent of selected background information (gender, position, years spent on job, nature of institution, and level of formal education) of the experts was tested using the Chi square analysis. The respondents were mostly male (23 of 24) and were either heads of departments (10 of 24) or directors, their deputies and their equivalents (12 of 24). Most of the respondents (22 of 24) exhibited an indifferent perception to the general environment and processes involved in policymaking. Reported capacity- strengthening efforts (for 13 of the 24 institutions surveyed) amounted to an average cost of US$76.98 per person per day for the 1-3 weeks training provided. While the practice of strategic planning was widespread, mission statements were widely used in only two-fifths of selected institutions; near-term strategies were widely used in about one third; and long-term visions were widely used in a little more than one third. Even the practice of participation in planning from a broad range of personnel within the institution was only widely used in one third of the selected intuitions. Similarly, written guidelines were widely available (22 of 24), but fully disseminated in less than half of the selected institutions. However, respondents claimed that the financial guidelines were being followed strictly, but half of the respondents (12 of 24) did not know the frequency of receiving reports from the accounting system. Most of the selected institutions had both a human resource management unit (70.8 percent) and dedicated staff training centers (54.2 percent), but about half of the respondents neither knew the regularity of review of staff training needs nor when last staff training needs were assessed. The implication of this is that the extent to which the training exercises match the skill gaps of staff and capacity requirements of the institutions were unknown. Between 75–80 percent of the selected institutions engaged in some collaborative programs and linkages with other government institutions, relevant NGOs, international development partners, training institutions, and research institutions. These collaborative ventures worked mainly through cost sharing, exchange, joint engagements, and sharing of reports. Over 70 percent of the individual respondents (experts) had at least a Master of Science (MSc) or its equivalent. The majority (79.7 percent) were male who had spent more than 10 years on the job. About half of the experts worked with universities, compared to 13.1 percent in the ministries and 37.7 percent in parastatals. Their expertise cut across a broad range of subjects relevant for designing and implementing agricultural and rural development policies— more than one quarter were experts in agricultural economics, extension, communication, rural development, and rural sociology. The most frequently mentioned (51.4 percent) person responsible for agricultural and rural development programs, policies, and strategies was the officer-in-charge, but the list of stakeholders was long and varied. Over 60 percent of the respondents stated that at least some consultation was done with stakeholders through face-to-face communication at stakeholder fora, meetings, conferences, summits, and talks. According to the respondents, the major concerns of stakeholders about agricultural and rural development policies, programs, or strategies were the extent to which they achieve stated goals. More than half of the respondents claimed that research evidence such as the achievements of previous and on going programs, results of fresh surveys, and extension and On farm Adaptive Research (OFAR) reports were used to support the development of agricultural and rural strategies, policies, and programs. This evidence was obtained mainly from agricultural institutions and universities as well as available reports, journals, and publications. The respondents stated that the major sources of funds for the process of agricultural and rural development policy were the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), The World Bank, state and local governments, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). They also stated that the various agricultural and rural development policies, strategies, and programs largely benefited the poor (52.5 percent). It was noteworthy that respondents preceived that the number of women at the ministerial and research levels of agricultural and rural development was less than 1 percent. Even at the level of rural farming communities, only 15.3 percent of the respondents felt that there were more women. Furthermore, only 27.4 percent of the experts incorporated environmental issues in their work and only 20.4 percent undertook environmental analysis in their work. Finally, 91.3 percent were indifferent to their job, meaning that it would be difficult for them to perform to the best of their abilities without allowing them greater freedom in the performance of their jobs and work out a reasonable and acceptable reward package for the job done. The results of the Chi square tests showed that the experts’ perception of job satisfaction and institutional incentives is independent of all the background variables considered. The main capacity gaps for designing and implementing agricultural and rural development policies in Nigeria included 1) the need to entrench democratic principles and transparent leadership and 2) to bridge the gap between universities, research institutions, and policymaking and implementing entities. There was also a limited understanding of the relationships between institutional, human, and material resources versus impact of policy on target end-users at every level in the policy design, planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. Finally, there was a need for the institutionalization of effective measures for tracking changes in the role of evidence in strategic, gender-sensitive planning, through regular monitoring and evaluation, impact assessment, adequate documentation, and commitment to utilize the results of the exercise. Efforts should also be targeted towards improving the quality, gender sensitivity, timeliness, and circulation of policy-relevant evidence.

× The major objective of this study was to examine the relationship between the institutional environment of microfinance and access of rural women to microfinance. Focus group sessions were held with groups of rural women who are clients of formal and informal Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) in Esan Local Government Area of Edo State, Nigeria. The two formal institutions were the Ekpoma branch of Lift Above Poverty Organization Microfinance Bank and the Ujoelen Microfinance Bank. Fifteen case studies with fourteen women and one man were also examined. They had all accessed loans from formal and/or informal MFIs. Main findings Institutional environment: The traditional informal microfinance institutions still exist side by side with the formal MFIs. These informal mechanisms have not been absorbed into the regulated microfinance sector. They are still very popular with rural women, many of whom have belonged to these “meetings” for over a decade. These informal thrift and credit societies still remain the only source of funds available to poor women who have not been able to access the formal sector microfinance institutions. Why are rural women poor? According to respondents, rural women in the study area are poor because of heavy family responsibilities. They have to feed their family when the husband does not provide because they cannot leave their children hungry. Additionally, they pay their children’s school fees as they do not want their children to be driven out of school. As a result of all these factors, women do not have enough capital for their trading and farming activities and cannot save. The women are hardworking and if they have capital they can trade with it and lift themselves out of poverty. The respondents gave examples of successful business women in the area that succeeded because they had access to credit from LAPO and other sources. Why it is difficult for women to borrow from banks? Rural women in particular find it difficult to borrow from banks because most do not have bank accounts, they have no collateral to present to the bank, and many women do not know the procedures for accessing bank loans. As they explained, while men inherit land and other property which they can use as collateral, women do not inherit property. They also said that women need their husband’s consent to borrow money from the bank. Sources of microfinance for rural women: The main source of finance for the majority of rural women is their contribution from their savings/market association. However, with the advent of microfinance banks, more rural women are now accessing formal microfinance institutions. Rural women have accessed loans from the Lift Above Poverty Organization (LAPO) and Ujoelen Microfinance Banks. One of the women’s groups also accessed credit from a government agency – the National Poverty Eradication Programme (NAPEP). Some of the more successful women have accessed multiple sources of credit over the years as their businesses have expanded. None of the participants has accessed loans from any of the commercial banks which have established microfinance banks/departments operating in the study area. Impact of microfinance on women’s businesses and lives: According to the women interviewed, microcredit has had positive impacts on their businesses and family life. Many of them have been able to expand their businesses. In some cases, they no longer have to buy goods on credit thereby avoiding interest payments and increasing their profits. At the family level, unlike in the past, they can make more contributions to their family upkeep, they eat better food, are able to pay children’s fees regularly and with less stress. A few who were so inclined have joined political parties such as the PDP and AC. However, to properly assess the impact of microfinance, a quantitative study using measures of impacts will be more reliable. Government policy and access to microfinance in rural areas of Edo State: In the study area, government policy has helped to bring formal microcredit sources to women on a larger scale. The Community Banks that transformed into MFBs now target women as microfinance client, which they did not do when they operated as Community Banks. Microcredit is also available to women through the LAPO, which has always targeted women’s groups. However, while the formal institutions have transformed into Microfinance Banks as required by the government’s Microfinance Policy, the traditional savings institutions still remain outside the regulated microfinance sector. Recommendations: From our findings, we would like to recommend and emphasize the following: * Informal microfinance institutions should be registered at the local government level and encouraged to keep good records in order to provide data on the volume of informal sector transactions in microfinance. * Women find it difficult to access formal finance institutions for several reasons, including lack of collateral or bank accounts and the belief that women do not repay loans. * More MFBs should be established in all Local Government Areas (LGAs) in order to reach the rural dwellers, especially women who should be targets of MFB operations. * Commercial banks which have established microfinance departments should develop products that target rural self-employed women. * MFBs should be properly supervised to protect depositors’ funds. The experiences of depositors with failed Community Banks should not be repeated. Access to microfinance can help rural self-employed women to expand their businesses and improve their personal and family well-being. Women will be encouraged to open bank accounts if they are assured that their deposits are safe and that they will be able to access loans for their businesses at reasonable terms such as low interest rates and convenient savings and repayment schedules.

× How research can feed into the policy process in developing countries in general, and in Nigeria more specifically, is not very well understood. Yet, this understanding is a critical part of doing effective policy research. This has become especially critical for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which has set up a country office for policy research in Nigeria. A key challenge for IFPRI, and other research organizations in the country, is how to better integrate research results into policy and communicate research results to Nigerian policymakers. To gain some useful insights into how research does, or does not, influence policy in Nigeria, we examined a case involving the process leading up to the adoption of the National Fertilizer Policy for Nigeria in 2006. Rather than focusing on how research influences policy in general, examining a particular policy allowed us to trace the actual policy process that took place, the actors involved, and the type of links and interactions between them. A diverse group of stakeholders (government, donors, research community, farmer organizations, and the private sector) undoubtedly debated the content of the fertilizer policy. Thus, its successful formulation and adoption offered a useful opportunity to examine how it came about in spite of competing vested interests (for or against it), and what role, if any, research-based information played in developing it. The policy covered some highly contentious political issues, most prominently the issue of privatization of the fertilizer sector in place of the large-scale and long-standing subsidy program. How the actors engaged and appeased people with vested interests who would normally oppose the policy, and the degree to which research-based information played a role in policy development, is of interest to IFPRI and others engaged in policy research.

× Since 2003, economic growth in Nigeria has been strong. Annual GDP grew by 9.1 percent per annum between 2003 and 2005 and by 6 .1 percent per annum between 2006 and 2008. Much of this growth can be attributed to the non-oil economy which has grown rapidly. This is due primarily to agriculture, which contributes approximately 35 percent to total GDP and supports 70 percent of the population. Agricultural research has been shown to be crucial in increasing agricultural productivity and reducing poverty. A study by Alene et al. (2007) showed that a 50 percent increase in the Nigerian research budget could lead to a substantial reduction of poverty across the country’s three major agroecological zones. In the central part of the country (moist savannah), maize and yams had the highest potential to reduce poverty (by respectively 8 percent and 6 percent) while cassava and yams had the highest potential in the humid forest zone in southern Nigeria.

× This study analyzes growth options in agricultural sub-sectors to accelerate overall economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria in the next nine years (2009-17) using an economy-wide, dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. The model results show that if the individual agricultural subsectors’ growth targets set by the Nigerian government can be achieved, the country will have 9.5 percent of agricultural annual growth and 8.0 percent of GDP growth in the next 10 years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more than halving 1996’s poverty rate of 65.6 percent, thereby accomplishing the objective for MDG1. The report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and in prioritizing growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsector level: (i) the size of a subsector in the economy, (ii) growth multiplier effect through linkages of a subsector with the rest of the economy, (iii) poverty reduction – growth elasticity effect through growth primarily led by a subsector, and (iv) market opportunities and price effect for individual agricultural products.

× Poverty in Nigeria is pervasive although the country is rich in human and material resources that should translate into better living standards. According to the most recent survey (2004 National Living Standards Survey) presented by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS 2007, about 69 million people were living in poverty, which represents 54.4 percent of the Nigerian population. Since the 1980s, the Nigerian poverty situation has been deteriorating.