Publications

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Navigating Nigeria’s food system challenges in the face of inflation and reform

Main Messages:
1. Low-income households in both urban and rural areas are hardest hit by rising food prices. Post-reform (fuel subsidies removal and exchange rate liberalization) price shocks and persistent inflation have disproportionately affected poor urban and rural households, forcing them to reduce food consumption and dietary diversity. Malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise, particularly among children and women-headed households, with sharpest impacts in conflict-affected areas.
2. Small-scale farmers are not benefiting proportionately from price increases. Despite surging food prices, small-scale farmers face escalating input costs, poor market access, and structural in-efficiencies that leave them with marginal gains far below the rate of inflation.
3. Trading networks maintain healthy margins, amplifying systemic inefficiencies. Traders and intermediaries dominate the food supply chain, passing on increased costs to consumers while pre-serving or even increasing their profit margins, highlighting inequities in the distribution of benefits along the value chain.
4. Recent economic reforms and external shocks exacerbate structural weaknesses. Economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies and exchange rate adjustments, have amplified existing challenges in the food system, including high transport costs, inadequate infrastructure, and fragmented markets.
5. Policy interventions should protect vulnerable groups and strengthen local food systems. Addressing these disparities requires targeted safety nets for consumers, support for small-scale farmers, and systemic investments to reduce inefficiencies in the value chain while promoting cli-mate-resilient food systems.

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders.

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Business aspects along the rural-urban continuum, outlet type, and gender of ownership among MSMEs in the Vietnamese food environment

Concurrent with its rapid economic growth, Viet Nam has been experiencing a food systems transformation. Broad changes in the food environment have been a key part of this transition. While the availability of processed food is ubiquitous, the food environment continues to be largely dominated by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). So, to build strategies to improve the availability and affordability of healthy foods, MSMEs are a key entry point. In this paper, we use primary survey data to separate key sources of variation in MSMEs’ organizational dimensions and business practices by type of outlet, rural-urban location, and gender of the owners. We focus on outcomes related to employment, food sources, business finance, good business practices, and nutrition knowledge and attitudes. We find limited differences in this set of outcomes in terms of whether an outlet is located in a rural, peri-urban, or urban area, or in terms of the gender of its owners. Instead, most of the variation in outcomes can be linked to the type of outlet, raising specific types of outlets as a key focus when seeking to foster the supply of healthier foods in the food environment.

IFPRI strategy for engagement with CAADP 2026-2035: Supporting implementation at regional, sub-regional, and national levels

This document outlines a comprehensive strategy for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to support implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) 2026–2035. With its renewed focus on transforming Africa’s agrifood systems, CAADP provides a framework to address criti cal challenges captured in six strategic objectives that cover sustainable food production, agro-industrialization, investment mobilization, food and nutrition security, inclusivity, resilience, and governance. Building on its long history of support to the CAADP process, IFPRI’s engagement with CAADP 2026–2035 will focus on providing evi dence, strengthening policy processes, building capacity, and supporting investment mobilization to accelerate Africa’s agrifood system transformation. This strategy identifies specific entry points and pathways through which IFPRI can contribute to achieving CAADP’s six strategic objectives including: (1) research and knowledge genera tion; (2) technical assistance and policy support; (3) capacity development; (4) investment and financing support; (5) monitoring, evaluation, and learning; and (6) stakeholder engagement and convening. Working closely with other CGIAR centers and leveraging its country and regional offices, expertise, partnerships, and extensive expe rience in Africa, IFPRI aims to play a pivotal key role in enabling CAADP’s vision of agricultural transformation and inclusive growth, contributing to food security, economic development, and resilience across the continent. By working across regional, subregional, and national levels, IFPRI will engage with partners to help translate CAADP 2025’s ambitious goals into tangible outcomes for food security, resilience, and economic growth.

Gender integration in food-system policies: an adapted policy assessment framework

Food systems are complex and include multifaceted processes in food production, aggregation, processing, distribution, consumption and post-consumption disposal of food products. Ensuring gender equality within food systems is important because they connect various domains, such as health and nutrition, climate change, environment, fisheries, livestock and agriculture. This interconnectedness within food systems leads to significant implications for human health, including nutrition and diets, as well as climate and environment-related indicators. Interactions of gender within these domains complicate the equitable derivation and distribution of benefits from agricultural activities by women and men. Therefore, policies governing food systems in low- and middle-income countries need to integrate gender-responsive approaches into their design, implementation and monitoring, recognizing the multifaceted processes of food systems and how gender interacts with these processes. The existing tools and frameworks that assess gender integration within policies about food systems do not extend beyond the scope of agricultural production into other interacting domains. This working paper addresses this gap by developing an enhanced framework for evaluating gender integration in policy documents within and beyond agriculture. The thematic reach of this framework includes agriculture, livestock, fisheries, climate change, health and nutrition, environment, and natural resource management. By leveraging a gender and food-systems framework that deconstructs food-systems functions, and how they impact women and men differently, the framework offers structured guidance for incorporating gender-related considerations within policy documents relating to food systems. The framework also has implications for participatory policy processes—design, implementation and monitoring—that aim to foster gender-equitable benefits from food-systems interventions.

Pathways Linking Climate Change to Livestock Production and Consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Protocol for a Systematic Review

The sub-Saharan African (SSA) region has a large livestock population but low productivity and animal source foods consumption which contributed to nutritional problems. Climate change further reduces productivity, impacting the livelihoods of the rural poor who largely rely on livestock. The agri-food system of SSA is characterized by small holder traditional family farms, poor technological uptake, poor infrastructure, poor veterinary services, and weak adaptability to climate effects. Owing to the unique challenges in climate change and agri-food system interface in SSA, contextualized evidence is very important to design interventions. We aimed to synthesize evidence on the pathways linking climate to livestock production and animal source food consumption in SSA context. Understanding the pathways linking climate change to livestock production and consumption in SSA is essential for formulating strategies that enhance food security, improve nutrition, and support rural livelihoods while mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change.

The incoming systematic review will be based on a previously developed systematic map. In the previous systematic map, we searched eight bibliographic databases, institutional website, conducted web-based search, and used citation snowballing to capture all relevant studies. The search was carried out in English and focused on SSA contexts wherever applicable. The search results were imported into Rayyan and screened for relevance based on title, abstract, and full text. At each stage of the screening process, the numbers of studies included and excluded were recorded. From the included studies of the systematic map, we will filter primary, empirical, quantitative articles conducted 2000 and onwards and use for this systematic review. We will extract the main findings of the articles along with key study characteristics and potential sources of heterogeneity. Included studies will be subjected to JBI’s quality appraisal checklists. A narrative synthesis of data from all studies included in the systematic review will be generated to describe the existing evidence along with study findings. Where data are suitably comparable, quantitative synthesis (meta-analysis) will be performed.

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

The rising consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and paid food away from home (FAFH) is a growing concern for developing countries like India, which face the double burden of persistent malnutrition and increasing obesity. This paper examines the trends and drivers of UPF and paid meal consumption in rural and urban India from 2014 to 2019. Using high-frequency household consumption survey data, we estimate the expenditure elasticity of these food categories. Our results show a significant increase in the consumption of UPFs and paid meals over the study period. The expenditure elasticity of both UPF and FAFH exceeds 1 on average, indicating that they are highly responsive to income growth. Notably, poorer and urban households display higher elasticities compared to wealthier and rural households. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition reveals that rising incomes and evolving dietary preferences contribute to the increase in UPF and paid meal consumption. These findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to promote healthier food choices, especially among lower-income groups, as India's economy continues to grow.

The impact of the African continental Free Trade Agreement: A continentwide macroeconomic assessment and distributional analysis in Nigeria and Rwanda

Africa remains the least open continent in the world, with high trade restrictions for both intra- and extra-African partners. These restrictions include both tariff and nontariff measures, as well as high transportation costs due to poor infrastructure. However, previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of intra-regional trade in boosting national economies, promoting development, and enhancing food security by increasing the availability of food and stabilizing domestic markets. In particular, informal cross-border trade, which is pervasive in Africa, contributes to food security, although further research is needed on its magnitude.

This research aims to enhance the understanding of current and future trends in Africa’s food systems, focusing on continental) trade and its impact on national economies and markets. Its objective is to assess the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the most ambitious regional trade agreement in Africa, on national economies and markets. The study uses state-of-the-art tools, includes informal cross-border trade of agricultural products, and considers realistic scenarios of trade liberalization.

The study finds that the AfCFTA’s impact will be positive, although limited. Because most African countries are already trading under preferential regimes within regional economic communities (RECs), AfCFTA primarily affects trade flows outside of these communities. We observe traditional trade diversion effects from partners outside of Africa (up to −1.68 percent) and trade creation within the continent (up to 18.48 percent). Like the agreement’s macroeconomic impacts on gross domestic product growth and trade, its effects on poverty are also limited, with more positive effects in Rwanda than in Nigeria, the two countries analyzed in the microsimulation. A gender bias is present in the results: Female-headed house-holds benefit less from the agreement than male-headed households. Given the continent’s high trans-portation costs, significant gains can occur by reducing transport margins in addition to implementing the AfCFTA. In that case, the positive results are amplified, while the negative effects are dampened.
Because AfCFTA implementation is still in early stages, more information is needed to fine-tune the results. First, it is important to examine the assumptions behind the selection of sensitive and excluded products. In the absence of official lists, which are not available for most countries, the final lists may differ from the selection made in this report, although the method we use has proven to be effective for past agreements. In addition, rules of origin and other nontariff measures will play a significant role in the future of the agreement, affecting the results and likely changing the distribution of gains and losses.

Report on state-level training programme for FPOs in Odisha

This report summarizes the outcomes of two-day State-Level Training Program for Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) for 3 batches held in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, from December 12-23, 2024. Organized by the Department of Agriculture & Farmer Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the CGIAR, the program aimed to enhance the knowledge and skills of FPO functionaries across the state.

The training program, conducted across three batches, engaged approximately 131 participants, with a significant representation of women. The participants comprised CEOs and Board of Directors (BoD) members of FPOs from diverse districts of Odisha.

The training curriculum was designed to address key areas of concern for FPOs, including FPO management, shareholder engagement, post-harvest management, certification, and market access. Experienced trainers, including Shri K.K. Jha and Shri Sujay Kar, along with researchers from IFPRI, delivered interactive sessions on these topics.

The training program was well-received by the participants, with a strong emphasis on practical learning and interactive discussions. Key areas of interest for the participants included FPO management strategies, optimal shareholder numbers, post-harvest management practices, product certification, and exploring diverse marketing channels for their produce.

This training program serves as a crucial step towards strengthening FPOs in Odisha by equipping them with the knowledge and skills necessary for sustainable growth and success. The insights and learnings gained from this program will be valuable in further enhancing the capacity of FPOs to contribute to the development of the agricultural sector in the state.

The training program highlighted the critical role of Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) in improving farmer livelihoods and strengthening the agricultural sector in Odisha. It provided a valuable platform for FPO functionaries to enhance their knowledge and skills in key areas of FPO management, such as financial management, marketing, and governance. The program fostered peer learning and networking among FPO representatives from different parts of the state. Furthermore, it identified key areas of concern and priorities for FPOs in Odisha related to the size, composition and structure, and tried to put forward some workable strategies to further strengthen the FPO ecosystem in the state.

This executive summary provides a concise overview of the FPO training program, its objectives, methodology, and key outcomes.

Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations

In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation.

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT
Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems.
OBJECTIVE
This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions.
METHODS
We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers' socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns.
SIGNIFICANCE
The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

A review of gender integration in African food-system policies: insights from Nigeria, Tanzania, Egypt and Kenya

Ensuring gender equality is a crucial aspect of achieving development goals, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Policymaking stands as a key avenue through which governments can actively pursue gender-responsive development. In LMICs—where agriculture often plays a pivotal role in the economy, and rural livelihoods are closely tied to food value chains—the integration of gender in agricultural and food-system policies is paramount. This is particularly true for many African countries. Although many African governments have recognized the importance of gender equality in agricultural and related sectors, gender disparities still persist in these sectors. This study evaluates national policies across various sectors in Nigeria, Tanzania, Egypt and Kenya, considering gender-based distinctions in the needs and priorities of women and men. Employing tools adapted to the broader context of food systems, the analysis of 54 sectoral policy documents reveals an encouraging pattern at first glance—that 89.9 percent of documents integrate gender considerations and perspectives. However, we identify specific gaps in the integration of gender considerations in national policies related to food systems, such as agriculture, livestock, and climate change. This could differentially affect how women and men derive benefits from ongoing or future changes in the countries’ food systems.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest March 2025

In this fifth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present a diverse body of global, regional, and country-level evidence that, collectively, enhances our understanding of the multifaceted nature of malnutrition, spanning a broad spectrum of outcomes, determinants, and policy responses.

Among the global and regional articles featured, these focus on key challenges and advancements in nutrition, gender, and health equity. Topics include gender-transformative interventions for adolescents, progress toward global nutrition targets, the links between adolescent pregnancy and anemia, optimal iron supplementation strategies, the applicability of a single child growth standard, and the need for a paradigm shift in anemia assessment. Additionally, discussions highlight shifting power dynamics in global health, inequalities in food environment research, the continuum of child development from conception to early life, and defining healthy diets through a joint FAO-WHO perspective.

Other studies of interest include the latest research on maternal and child healthcare trends and inequality, anemia and micronutrient deficiencies, and malnutrition in children and adolescents, with a focus on Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. These studies examine determinants ranging such as marriage, education, and women’s empowerment to maternal and child health outcomes. They also explore the intersection of women's work and child nutrition before expanding to broader dietary behaviors and the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, providing a comprehensive view of key nutrition and health challenges.

Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions.

Happy reading!

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Advancing women's voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process: Findings and recommendations from the WEAGov India Pilot Study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process.

Links between protein-source diversity, household behavior, and protein consumption inadequacy in the Indian rural semi-arid tropics

Our study analyzes the determinants, sources, and levels of protein consumption among 785 households across nine districts in six Indian states in the semi-arid tropics. We found that 80% of these households consumed less protein than recommended and relied on cereals for 60–75% of their protein intake. Notably, even when protein-rich foods are accessible to households, they still consume them insufficiently. We found that their protein intake deficiency is driven by a lack of diversity of protein sources (in particular, legumes, millets, and livestock), as well as by a dearth of women's education and role in household decision-making and low incomes and assets. We advocate for initiatives to raise nutrition awareness, empower women, and adopt a nutrition-centric farming approach.

Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

Data-driven and evidence-based approaches are critical for shaping public policy, investment, and expenditure decisions, ensuring that development plans are effective and well-informed. The RIAPA model, utilized in this study, has played a key role in informing policy discussions, including the identification of national priorities and strategies, the mid-term assessment of the Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4), and the post-COVID-19 recovery and relief efforts. This policy note employs a Rwanda-specific RIAPA model integrated with an investment module to analyze the expected benefits from agricultural investments outlined in the Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2025-2029. Results show that, compared
to PSTA 4 spending trends, a moderate spending scenario under PSTA 5 could accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusive growth by 2.8 percentage points. A higher budget scenario, re quiring an average annual expenditure of $610 million, is projected to reach an ambitious eight percent agricultural growth target. Faster agricultural growth would further stimulate the off-farm components of the agri-food system, reinforcing agriculture's role as an economic growth engine. By 2029, PSTA 5 could reduce poverty and undernourishment by 1.6 million people, contingent on managing potentially significant climatic and external economic risks.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets.

Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets.

The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes.

The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment.

Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

The political economy of food self sufficiency policies and food security in African countries

Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.” International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply.

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

Enhancing women’s economic empowerment in rural Nigeria through advocacy trainings

This policy brief shares quantitative results from a project examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s economic outcomes. We share insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun) involving over 5,800 women participants from 450 communities. We causally test whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s access to and investments in livelihood opportunities. While the trainings were designed to train women in the skills needed for engaging in the local policy process in rural communities in Nigeria and to train their husbands on the benefits of women’s participation in community affairs as well as in how to practically support their wives’ participation, we posit that increased efficacy combined with advocacy skills and husbands’ support could additionally have profound economic spillovers. Indeed, we show causal improvements in these outcomes when women are trained and present some emerging policy lessons.

Baseline analysis for an impact evaluation of a home-grown school feeding program in Osun State, Nigeria to support smallholder farmers

Home-Grown School Feeding Programs (HGSFPs) are becoming important policy instruments to improve food security, nutrition, education, agricultural production, and local economic growth (Adeyanju et al., 2024; Abay et al., 2021; Sitali, 2021; Takeshima et al., 2018; Fernandes et al., 2016; Karisa and Ordho, 2014; WFP, 2013). While the potential of HGFSPs to tackle undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies is well documented (Alderman, Bundy, Gelli, 2024), their role in supporting local value chains and smallholder farmers remains an area of active inquiry. Following international trends and lessons, Nigeria started delivering HGSFP which includes utilizing locally sourced foods instead of imports (Dennis et al., 2021). These programs provide school meals using locally sourced food from smallholder farmers within the same community (Sumberg & Sabates-Wheeler, 2011). In 2004, Nigeria’s National HGSFP was piloted in 12 states, covering all six geopolitical zones. However, the national government abruptly halted the program, with Osun relaunching the program in 2012 using state-level funds. Osun State is currently the only Nigerian state that implements the program—and considered one of the more successful states for implementing it. Despite stoppages of the program, lessons learned from the pilot phase offered valuable operational and policy insights for implementing the National HGSFP in 2016, with the aim of using farm produce locally grown by smallholder farmers to provide children with nutritious mid-day meals on every school day (Adeyanju et al., 2024).

Impacts of personalized picture-based crop advisories: Experimental evidence from India and Kenya

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has heightened interest in digital models to strengthen agricultural extension. Such tools could help provide personalized advisories tailored to a farmer's unique conditions at scale and at a low cost. This study evaluates the fundamental assumption that personalized crop advisories are more effective than generic ones. By means of a large-scale randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the impact of personalized picture-based advisories on farmers’ perceptions, knowledge and adoption of recommended inputs and practices, and other downstream outcomes. We find that personalizing advisories does not significantly improve agricultural outcomes compared to generic ones. While farmers who engage relatively more with advisories (i.e., those who receive and read a substantial number of messages based on self-reports) tend to achieve better outcomes, this is irrespective of whether the advisories they receive are tailored to their specific situation or not. We conclude that investments in digital extension tools should aim to enhance engagement with advisories rather than focusing solely on personalization.

Employment impacts of agrifood system innovations and policies: A review of the evidence

The food sector constitutes the largest global source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable populations. This article provides an extensive review of the available evidence of the employment effects of innovations and policy interventions in agrifood systems and value chains in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review was guided by a two-part hypothesis: (1) food systems currently underperform in terms of their potential for generating decent jobs and income opportunities, and (2) this gap is only growing as expanding food markets and existing agrifood supply chain business models skew gains to the disadvantage of smallholders, agrifood small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and food sector workers.

Strengthening women’s voice and agency in Nigeria: Evidence from a randomized control trial on women’s advocacy and men’s allyship trainings

This policy brief presents insights from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) conducted across three states of southwestern Nigeria (Oyo, Ogun, and Osun), examining the effectiveness of advocacy and leadership training for women, along with allyship training for men (their husbands), in improving women’s voice and agency in community governance. With over 5,800 women participants across 450 communities, this study tested whether training women alone, as well as whether training them in tandem (though in separate sessions) with their husbands, can increase women’s political participation in local governance or the responsiveness of local leaders to women’s priorities. We show causal improvements in both when women are trained and chart out emerging policy lessons.

Man vs. machine: Experimental evidence on the quality and perceptions of AI-generated research content

Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience. Academic researchers want their research to be understood and used by non-technical audiences, but that requires communication that is more accessible in the form of non-technical and shorter summaries. The researcher must both signal the quality of the research and ensure that the content is salient by making it more readable. AI tools can improve salience; however, they can also lead to ambiguity in the signal since true effort is then difficult to observe. We implement an online factorial experiment providing non-technical audiences with a blog on an academic paper and vary the actual author of the blog from the same paper (human or ChatGPT) and whether respondents are told the blog is written by a human or AI tool. Even though AI-generated blogs are objectively of higher quality, they are rated lower, but not if the author is disclosed as AI, indicating that signaling is important and can be distorted by AI. Use of the blog does not vary by experimental arm. The findings suggest that, provided disclosure statements are included, researchers can potentially use AI to reduce effort costs without compromising signaling or salience.

Do public works investments in watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation improve nutrition and resilience? Evidence from bureau for humanitarian assistance interventions in support of Ethiopia’s productive safety net program

Between 2017 and 2021, the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA) of the United States Agency for International Development supported public works in the areas of watershed rehabilitation and small-scale irrigation under Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP). The investments aimed to improve food security and nutrition and to increase the resilience capacities of households through improved natural resource systems and asset development. However, there is little evidence about how these water-related investments supported household food security, nutritional outcomes, and resilience. This study used a mixed-methods approach to fill some of these knowledge gaps. Econometric results show that households in BHA intervention areas had smaller food gaps, and this association is statistically significant. Similarly, households that adopted small-scale irrigation and water harvesting techniques on their own plots show significantly better nutritional outcomes than those that did not. The results further suggest that in general the households in BHA areas are more resilient than those in non-BHA woredas. However, higher resilience capacities are associated with agricultural water management on own plots rather than with public works in communal lands. Thus, if household security, nutrition and resilience are key goals of program interventions, then programs need to grow intentionality in developing assets, and particularly irrigation.

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya's fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP's impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program's potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Real exchange rate misalignment and economic growth: An empirical analysis for Ethiopia

In both developing and developed economies, academic and policy discussions have consistently emphasized that achieving stable economic growth and maintaining internal and external balance require an exchange rate aligned with its long-term equilibrium value. This paper examines the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on Ethiopia's economic growth from 1980 to 2022. The study begins by estimating the equilibrium real exchange rate using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach to calculate the misalignments. It then analyzes the effects of these misalignments on economic growth using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Hansen's (2000) threshold regression model. The VAR and Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses reveal that real exchange rate misalignments have an immediate positive impact on economic growth, which diminishes between the eighth and sixteenth years and stabilizes as a permanent long-term effect. The threshold regression results indicate that undervaluation of the Ethiopian Birr enhances economic growth up to a 13.95% deviation from the equilibrium real exchange rate, while overvaluation supports growth up to a 7.15% threshold. Beyond these limits, misalignments hinder growth. The study underscores the importance of avoiding excessive deviations from the equilibrium exchange rate to sustain economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the need for consistent macroeconomic policies to minimize the gap between the actual and equilibrium real exchange rates. These findings emphasize the critical role of exchange rate policy in promoting sustainable economic development in Ethiopia.

Does labelling differentiate products and create price premiums? The case of tomatoes from northeast Nigeria

This note describes a labelling experiment introduced to crates of tomatoes cool transported from the northeast region of Nigeria to Lagos or Port Harcourt. A label was attached to a random sample of crates to ensure that the quality of tomatoes is orthogonal to the labels and the destination market was not informed of the experiment. The label contained the information on (a) the project (IFPRI), (b) the transportation method (cool transportation), and (c) the origin of tomatoes (Jos or Gombe), as shown below. The experiment was conducted in the first rounds from Jos and Gombe (Lagos), and the fifth round from Jos (Port Harcourt). As expected, the labeled crates were priced higher than the unlabeled crates. About 9 to 33% of the sale price is attributed to improved information on the quality of tomatoes via the labels.

Market information and R&D investment under ambiguity: A framed artefactual experiment with plant breeding professionals

Investments in R&D are often made under ambiguity about the potential impacts of various projects. High-quality, systematic market research could help reduce that ambiguity, including in investments in agricultural research-for-development, such as plant breeding. Using an online framed artefactual experiment with a diverse sample of breeding experts working in various disciplines across the world, we ask how market information and information quality influences breeding experts’ investments in prospects with ambiguous returns, and how the quality and source of information affect willingness to pay for market information. We find that providing market information leads participants to make more prioritized (rather than diversified) decisions. However, participants do not consider differences in information quality, instead over extrapolating from noisy and biased information signals. Finally, while most participants are willing to use experimental funds to purchase market information, around half prefer lower quality information even if higher quality information is available at the same price. We conclude that prioritizing R&D projects with greater impact opportunities will require better awareness among decision-makers of quality issues in various types of market research.

Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov) assessment framework insights from the India pilot study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-term economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: Women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, available metrics show that women’s policy and political empowerment remains low. Moreover, these metrics are inadequate in systematically tracking women’s voices and empowerment across different levels of decision-making. IFPRI developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)—to assess women’s voices and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents results from the pilot testing of WEAGov in India from January to March 2024. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Indian context, analyze trends in the data that we collected during the pilot, and provide an overview of the status of women’s voices and empowerment in the agrifood policy process as of March 2024. The pilot testing in India provides useful lessons on improving the measurement of these outcomes and offers valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voices and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process, design, implementation, and evaluation.

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

The state of food insecurity measurement: A mix of methods, and a mix of messages

Robust food insecurity indicators are needed for monitoring development targets, humanitarian advocacy efforts, and rationally allocating foreign aid. Longstanding dissatisfaction with the FAO’s undernourishment indicator prompted the development of new metrics in recent decades, including the FAO’s Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) and the unaffordability of healthy diets. However, no previous research has assessed whether food insecurity and poverty indicators are in broad agreement on which countries are insecure/poor, and whether global food insecurity is rising or falling. Unfortunately, this new mix of methods produces mixed messages. At the country level, FIES severe food insecurity is often higher in Latin America and the Caribbean than in Niger and other extremely poor African countries. On global trends, the FAO reports increasing undernourishment and FIES food insecurity over 2014-2022, whereas the World Bank reports monetary poverty declining and healthy diets becoming more affordable. Moreover, trends in FAO food security indicators are not statistically explained by hypothesized factors cited in FAO reports, such as conflict or climate change, and increases in the FAO’s calorie consumption inequality metric are inconsistent with declining income inequality reported by the World Bank. We provide four concrete suggestions to improve food security measurement and monitoring: (1) the FAO should cease modelling undernourishment; (2) new independent studies should re-evaluate the FIES and test new metrics; (3) international agencies should implement coordinated, high-frequency, multi-purpose, open-access surveys; and (4) researchers should further improve the “nowcasting” of poverty and food insecurity for data-scarce crisis contexts.

Nature-positive agriculture for people and the planet: A qualitative analysis from Kenya

Agricultural intensification that prioritizes profits over people and the environment is increasingly recognized as harmful to people’s wellbeing and the sustainability and resilience of smallholder farming systems. Nature-based solutions are part of nature-positive eco-agrifood systems and are critical for restoring ecosystems and preventing further biodiversity loss and environmental degradation during a climate crisis. To support more widespread adoption of nature-based solutions, it is important to understand dynamics within local communities where these solutions will be applied. This includes deeper understanding of environmental challenges, institutional and governance arrangements, current farming practices, gender relations, and perceptions of nature-based solutions. This study draws on qualitative data on these topics collected from smallholder farmers and key informants in three counties of Kenya. The discussion centers on the potential for nature-based practices to place agricultural production systems on a more sustainable path.

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.

Prioritizing agri-food system investments under climatic and world price risks

With a population exceeding 120 million, Ethiopia is home to 77 million people who directly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods (World Bank, 2024a). The country registered robust agricultural growth of about 5% on average for a decade since 2013 (NBE, 2023). The Ethiopian government has been encouraged to target its development interventions to sustain and accelerate the growth and transformation of the economy (IFAD, 2023; Aragie & Balié, 2019). However, the pattern of support and the composition of growth are critical factors influencing changes in poverty, employment, and diet quality (Christiaensen & Martin, 2018; Pham & Riedel, 2019). Assessing the linkages between economic growth and poverty, employment, and diet quality is a topic of importance to both country policymakers and their development partners. Few studies, including Fan and Zhang (2008), Aragie, et al (2022), Benfica, et al. (2019) and Pauw and Thurlow (2015), have so far assessed and ranked various on-farm and off-farm interventions in relation to their impacts on selected outcome indicators and suggested to policy makers the most cost-effective ways of allocating scarce public resources for maximum impact.

Impacts of cool transportation in Nigeria: Midpoint analysis

A randomized controlled trial was introduced to see impacts of cool transportation that connects three vegetable markets in northeast and two large demand centers in southern regions of Nigeria. This note summarizes the findings from the midpoint analysis. First, the impact of cool transportation is large and statistically significant. Sales price, revenue and profit significantly increase for marketers. Second, impacts on sales price are quantitatively large, and a larger portion of sales price increase is attributed to refrigeration, that is, quality preservation through cooling. About 70% of the increase comes from cooling; only 30% from transportation. Third, impacts on revenue and profit, relative to non-cool transportation, are also quantitatively large. In particular, the analysis shows a large proportional increase in profit.

The cluster panacea? An evaluation of three interventions in shrimp value chains in Bangladesh

Clustering farming has often been proposed as an effective way to overcome the significant transactions costs faced by downstream buyers in interacting and negotiating with many small farmers, while making it easier for extension workers and governments to dispense advice, provide upstream services and inputs. In this study, we evaluate the impact of a set of three initiatives in Bangladesh, implemented by a government department, a private sector processing firm and a not-for-profit industrial advocacy body, all involving clustering contiguous shrimp farm ponds to enable group certification necessary for global market access. We implement a canonical difference-in-differences model using two rounds of surveys of a sample of over 1,222 farmers in 2023 and 2024 to assess the impacts on pond management practices, net profits and any unintended impacts on food security and dietary diversity. Our results suggest that the cluster interventions had impressive impacts on adoption of better farm management practices. However, these do not appear to translate into significant gains in net profits, perhaps because these interventions are still relatively new. Further, it appears that cluster farmers pay a penalty on account of a shift to more intensive cultivation, represented by a loss in species diversity and lower incomes from fish and vegetables. We find that there are no significant spillover effects as yet on shrimp farmers in the same village as the clusters. This study reflects critically on the efficacy of clustering that is presumed to enhance access to global markets.

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains

A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs.
For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.org.

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is very high in most developing countries, and most of the loss occurs during production, harvesting, and transporting stages. Postharvest technologies (PHTs) are therefore important to reducing food loss and wastage and critical to both national and international food security agendas. This report provides the status quo of postharvest innovation adoption in Nigeria by taking the case of horticultural growers’ adoption of postharvest packaging and transportation innovation such as returnable plastic crates. Primary data were collected from 1704 farmers using a multistage random sampling technique. Our findings reveal low adoption of PHT, with only 8% of rainfed and 14% of irrigation farmers utilizing PHT for packaging and transporting perishable agricultural products. Growers who adopted PHT received a market price that was twice as high as those who did not, encouraging sustained adoption of PHT by growers. The results prove that the high costs and limited availability in rural areas, rather than awareness gap, discourage farmers from using PHT. The research suggests interventions to address these challenges by utilizing flexible distribution strategies, such as engaging small and micro enterprises to offer rental PHT services in rural areas.

Cool transportation in Nigeria: Intervention, baseline and randomized controlled trial

In many developing countries, including Nigeria, much of fruit and vegetable production is lost largely because of lack of an adequate cold chain, including postharvest handling, cold storage and temperature-controlled transportation. As a result, not only the availability of fish, fruits, vegetables, milk, eggs and meat but also the safety and nutritional content of the food are affected. Under such conditions, all agents in the supply chain including farmers suffer from income reduction, while consumers face un-stable and lower-quality supply of normally more nutritious foods. Inadequate development of value chains and deficiencies in high costs associated with cooling systems are main causes of such losses.

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT: Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing.

METHODS: Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seeds in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality control measures, including making closer visual checks of seeds, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seeds, among others. However, fuller seed quality control may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards, such as Quality Declared Seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in economically viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to foundation seeds.
SIGNIFICANCE: The quality assurance provided by existing CSS in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in proper maintenance of the seed production field and the quality of original seeds that CSS intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance can be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in the intermediate seed system and to fill gaps in the formal seed system.

How do policy environments influence technology adoption? Insights from Nigeria’s pod borer resistant (PBR) cowpea experience

Policymakers are increasingly considering the promise of modern biotechnology, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to help solve development problems in health, agriculture, and other fields (Zambrano et al., 2022). However, debates persist around health and environmental implications (National Academies of Sciences, 2016; Raman, 2017; Smyth et al., 2021). The regulation of GMOs varies globally, with some countries implementing outright bans or imposing stringent controls (Sarkar et al., 2021; Yali, 2022). A recent study examines the Nigerian policy environment for Pod Borer Resistant (PBR) cowpea, which has been genetically engineered to resist the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) [Mockshell et al., (unpublished)]. Legume pod borers significantly reduce cowpea yield and quality, with losses of up to 80% reported (Andam et al., 2024; Mockshell et al., 2024). This policy note summarizes the findings of the paper, providing insights to guide policy development around the adoption of biotech food crops in Nigeria and other countries in Africa South of the Sahara (SSA). The primary research question is: Is there an enabling policy environment for PBR cowpea and what factors contribute to it?

External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation

The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power of each of these indices in terms of the respective type of migration they attempt to anticipate. Moreover, they perform well against alternative measures, work reasonably well for both rural and urban areas and in departments not included in the original calibration data, and appear to capture distinct aspects around households’ decisions to migrate domestically and abroad. Overall, the MPI seems to be an important addition to policymakers’ toolkit.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

As floods increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, anticipatory action (AA) programs offer a promising approach to mitigate their impacts. However, there is limited research about how AA programming can address the specific needs of women, who often face heightened vulnerabilities during disasters. This paper applies the Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform (RBET) framework to examine gender dynamics in AA programming through case studies in Nepal and Nigeria—two flood-prone countries where AA initiatives have been piloted. Using data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions with stakeholders, including government agencies, NGOs, local advocacy groups, and direct beneficiaries of flood programs, we assess barriers and enabling conditions for AA to reach, benefit, and empower women and broader opportunities for transformation of gender norms and social inequalities. Our findings reveal key implementation challenges, including limited funding, weak integration with broader disaster risk reduction efforts, and inadequate early warning systems. However, we also identify practical strategies for improving AA’s gender responsiveness, such as relying on individual rather than household-level data, providing accessible early warning information, offering aid modalities that meet women’s specific needs (such as dignity kits), ensuring women’s participation in community decision-making, and facilitating ongoing inclusive household and community dialogues in flood-prone communities rather than only responding to specific flood warnings. The paper concludes with recommendations for scaling up gender-inclusive AA programming to enhance resilience and reduce the disproportionate impacts of flooding on women.

Market diversification to increase the demand for and value of Bangladeshi shrimp

In a rapidly growing global shrimp industry, Bangladesh’s shrimp sector faces fierce competition from much larger producers such as Ecuador, India, and Vietnam. One of Bangladesh’s challenges is that it is overdependent on Europe's fragmented hotel, restaurant, and catering (HoReCa) segment and ethnic retail markets, where it exports 88 percent of its output. This market is highly price-driven and limited in size. However, Bangladesh’s exporters have no or only limited access to retail markets in the European Union (EU), the United States (US), or other markets that source black tiger shrimp due to a lack of high-quality products, a lack of Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) and Best Aquaculture Practices (BAP) certification, negative market perception of the country’s shrimp, and a lack of promotional activities. As a result of the increased competition and restricted market access, Bangladesh’s exporters and farmers are experiencing spiraling prices, and their future activities are at risk. Diversifying its markets should help the industry increase demand and get better prices for the products it exports. This brief explores the current market position of Bangladeshi shrimp and what the country can do to diversify its markets. Promotion is key, but not to consumers. Business-to-business (B2B) shrimp buyers worldwide must view Bangladesh as a reliable source of competitive, high-quality, sustainable shrimp.

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity.

Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers.

Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed.

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

Nigeria school feeding program: Train the trainers training manual

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline cooks’ survey instrument

Nigeria School Feeding Program - Cooks Questionnaire

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline school administrators’ survey instrument

Nigeria School Feeding Program - School Level Questionnaire

Nigeria school feeding program: Pre- and post-test training quiz questions for cooks

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline farmers’ survey instrument

Nigeria School Feeding Program - Farmers Questionnaire

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages
-Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children.
-Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls.
-Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time.
-The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet.
-Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases,
such as those in urban areas.
-Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle
changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity.
-Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa.
-Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health.
-National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas.
-There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

Academic and policy debates on agriculture emphasize a bimodal typology of ‘small-scale’ and ‘large-scale’ farms. In this article, we draw attention to the role and distinct characteristics of medium-scale monogastric livestock farms in the Global South, drawing on an empirically grounded typology of scale that incorporates three linked components: (1) Social and economic organization of production; (2) Technological choice and environmental impacts, and; (3) Food system linkages and spillovers. We review national livestock sector policy documents from three Asian countries - Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam - with reference to the typology, and compare assumptions embedded in the policies with the characteristics of farm scale revealed by the typology. Our analysis indicates that current policy goals are not well aligned with the characteristics of medium-scale livestock farming in the region. This disconnect presents a missed opportunity to enhance the livestock sector’s contributions to rural economies, nutrition security, food safety, and environmental performance. We conclude with examples of how policies could maintain and enhance medium-scale monogastriclivestock farms’ contributions to sustainable intensification, public health, and livelihoods.

Rural-urban diet convergence in Bangladesh

This paper seeks to bring concepts from economic geography and human geography into closer dialogue and apply them to the analysis of food systems. We analyze temporal and spatial patterns of diet trans formation in Bangladesh using data from nationally representative household surveys. We conceptualize diet transformation as a ‘triangle’ comprised of three elements (food purchases, diet diversification, and processed food consumption), influenced by four conditioners (time, income, non-farm employment, and space). We find that: (1) Diets are converging over time and space. food purchases, non-staples, and processed foods occupy high shares of food consumption value, irrespective of urban or rural location. Controlling for income, rural landless households and households in urban areas have very similar diets. Households in ‘peripheral’ and ‘non-peripheral’ rural areas experience similar levels of diet transformation. (2) Food purchases and processed food consumption are conditioned mainly by non-farm employment (NFE). (3) Diet diversification is positively associated with income, but not with NFE or land ownership. We characterize the spatial convergence of diets as an outcome of ‘time-space compression’ (the accelerating volume and velocity of economic and social transactions resulting from advances in transport and communications technology), and the distinct form of peri-urbanization under conditions of extremely high population density found in Bangladesh.

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies.

Cooling technologies and long-term efficiency improvement of horticulture market agents: Panel data evidence from solar-powered cold-storage intervention in Nigeria

Modern cooling technologies, including cold storage, have been considered one of the critical tools to address increasingly complex challenges in agrifood systems in developing countries, including poverty, economic growth, food loss and waste, food and nutrition security, and environmental sustainability (e.g., IFPRI 2020; Kashyap & Agarwal 2020). Cold storage can minimize most human pathogens, ensuring enhanced food safety (Uçar & Özçelik 2013; Kopp & Mishra 2022) and contribute to increased consumption of micronutrient-rich horticulture crops (Schreinemachers et al. 2018). Cooling technologies can also improve market functions by enabling higher and more stable prices received by suppliers (Rakshit 2011; Schreinemachers et al. 2018) and reducing losses (Allen & de Brauw 2018). Cooling-chain development has been a significant part of food system transformation outside Africa South of the Sahara (SSA) (IFPRI 2020). Similar technologies may become more broadly relevant in SSA in the near future (Tschirley et al. 2015). Traditionally, the use of cold storage has been constrained by high energy consumption and adverse environmental effects like carbon emissions (Pueyo et al. 2020; Steyn et al. 2016). However, a growing set of potential energy solutions are being proposed and introduced on a pilot basis, including solar power (Takeshima et al. 2023).

Peer-to-peer learning on vegetable production and implications for value chain development in Nigeria

The vegetable sector of Kaduna and Kano states in Nigeria is crucial for smallholder farmers' livelihoods, providing employment opportunities and contributing to good health. However, unfavorable environmental conditions and poor agronomic practices have hindered its development, leaving farming households struggling with food insecurity, nutrient deficiency, and poverty. Furthermore, societal expectations regarding gender roles, religious beliefs, and cultural practices make it more challenging for couples to work together effectively and attain the best possible outcomes for their family. The East-West Seed Knowledge Transfer (EWS-KT) foundation is supporting SHFs' access to vegetable markets through a one-year training program (across two cropping cycles) and together with Wageningen University and Research (WUR) intends to provide a gender-responsive agricultural extension system. Overall, this research project aims to improve farmers’ vegetable production, reduce the gender gap in agricultural participation and intrahousehold decision-making, and improve smallholder’s livelihoods. This report is based on a household survey covering 2562 respondents from 150 SHF communities in Kaduna and Kano. The baseline survey was a joint effort of Datametrics Associates Ltd. and WUR, consisting of two data collection rounds: the main survey round and supplementary survey round. Together, the surveys cover the different groups part of the study: key farmers, core farmers, other peer farmers, and the spouses of these farmers. The baseline survey provides insight into current agronomic practices, agricultural extension activities, SHF livelihoods, and women empowerment in Kaduna and Kano. Moreover, it assessed to which extent characteristics are balanced across socio-economic characteristics and current outcome indicators irrespective of their assignment to the treatment and control groups. Findings also helped to improve the formulated indicators for the evaluation of the project interventions.

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income.

The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.