The COVID-19 pandemic is devastating local, national, and global economies. According to recent forecasts from the World Bank, the pandemic is likely to have pushed 49 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. More than 45 percent (23 million) of these people are in Sub-Saharan Africa, implying that the region will be hit the hardest in terms of increased extreme poverty. The United Nations World Food Program further estimates that the number of people globally facing acute food insecurity will almost double by the end of 2020 due to income and remittances losses as well as disruptions to food systems.
In a new publication in Food Policy, we examine the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and of associated governmental lockdown measures on household food security and labor market participation in Nigeria. To answer their questions, we combined nationally representative, pre-pandemic face-to-face phone surveys with follow-up phone surveys and primary data on infections and lockdowns collected in April-May 2020. By comparing before- and post-outbreak food security outcomes of households with different exposure to the pandemic, we quantified some of the key overall and differential welfare effects of the pandemic and government responses.
Through our analysis, we found variations in food security incomes related to state-level infection rates and lockdown measures. Households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or more strict government measures (i.e., lockdowns) experienced a 6-15 percentage point increase in the probability of food insecurity as well as a 12 percentage point reduction in non-farm business activities. These findings are consistent with a recent review of grey literature indicating that the main food security impacts of the pandemic have been through lockdown and mobility restrictions, with such effects being particularly acute for the poorest households.
The analysis contributes new empirical data regarding the pandemic’s welfare consequences at a time when there is still relatively little empirical evidence on actual impacts in low- and middle-income countries. Findings from the publication highlight the need to address social safety nets in both rural and urban areas, and up-to-date analysis of the present situation can help inform immediate- and medium-term social protection policies as well as aid governments and international donor agencies to prove their targeting strategies to identify the most impacted communities.
Learn more about these findings through our publication in Food Policy, “COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria”.
Dr. Mulubrhan Amare is a Research Fellow in the Development Strategy and Governance Division (DSGD) at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Kibrom A. Abay is a Research Fellow in DSGD at IFPRI. Luca Tiberti is an Assistant Professor in Economics at Laval University. Jordan Chamberlin is a Spatial Economist at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT).
