NSSP Policy Briefs

× Despite the potential importance of seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, many governments in sub-Saharan Africa lack the capacity to expand quality assurance systems even where there is expressed interest. This brief summarizes the key insights from a recent study in Nigeria. The evidence points toward the benefits of pursuing balanced, flexible seed quality assurance systems rather than focusing singularly on expanding rigorous seed certification systems, as the country has done until recently. These recommendations are based on findings from the 2010–2018 period in Nigeria: Increased supply of certified seeds of maize, rice, and cowpea had positive effects on farm-level use of certified seeds, yields, and output, but these effects diminished as certified seed supply continued to expand. Moreover, yield gains from certified seeds tend to vary considerably across locations. As certified seed becomes more available to farmers, its use spreads from higher-return farms to lower-return farms, diminishing overall productivity benefits. These results are consistent with the view that singularly expanding rigorous seed certification faces diminishing returns. More balanced, pluralistic systems that also allow for moderate quality assurance, such as quality declared seed (QDS), may be worth trying in Nigeria.

× Policymakers in Nigeria and other countries in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) are relying on agriculture to generate employment for the growing youth population. However, there is concern that youth engagement in agricultural production is declining in favor of other economic activities. “Rural-urban-rural” migra tion occurs mainly during intercrop intervals, as the cyclical nature of crop-related activities prompts African youth to seek more economic stability from nonagricultural employment during the off season (Yeboah and Jayne 2018). While comprehensive data on youth’s departure from Nigeria’s agriculture sector remain elusive, various studies indicate a heightened exit rate, particularly post-discovery of oil resources, and a notable 63 percent reduction in the time Nigerian youth spend in farming activities compared to adults (UNECA 2017). In general, discourse on youth unemployment, with specific pertinence to Africa, underscores the pivotal role of different economic structural transformations that are hindering the formation of “quality” employment opportunities (McMillan, Rodrik, and Verduzco-Gallo 2014).

× Key Highlights:
Changes in temperature, measured in harmful degree days (HDDs), and precipitation have a significant negative impact on agricultural productivity in Nigeria, which highlights the adverse effects of extreme weather on crop yields.
Climate changes affect income sources for farming households. We found that an increase in HDDs reduces households’ income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, implying threats to household food security for smallholders whose livelihoods depend on subsistence farming and food consumption from own sources.
In response to the risks posed by climate change, farmers adopt changes in crop mixes (for example, reducing the share of land allocated to cereals) and input use decisions (for example, reducing fertilizer use and purchased seeds) as an adaptation strategy. Adaption strategies that lead to low use of yield-enhancing modern inputs could worsen agricultural productivity and household food insecurity. However, we found that farmers in Nigeria respond to extreme climate by switching to drought tolerant root or tuber crops. Such strategies could partially offset the adverse effects of climatic shocks on households’ welfare.
Climate changes negatively impact agricultural productivity for both poor and non-poor households, but the effects are more pronounced among poorer households, according to our heterogenous effects analysis on household’s initial endowments (based on wealth indicators measured in asset and livestock holdings). This implies low adaptive capacity on the part of poor households and thus their high vulnerability to climate-related shocks.
Suggested policy recommendations include interventions to incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, targeted pro-poor interventions such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders’ access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital, such as land and other productive assets.

× Poverty remains entrenched in Nigeria, where 70 percent of the rural population lives below the poverty line. In response, the Nigerian government launched the Second National Fadama Development Project (Fadama II) in 2005. Based on the community-driven development (CDD) approach, the project aims to generate income for beneficiaries, empower local communities, and improve the way governments reach poor and vulnerable groups, such as women, the elderly, disabled, and people with HIV/AIDS.--Authors' Abstract

× When there is disconnect between research and policy, high quality research-based information can be produced without impact on policy dialogue and action. This often results in policy actions lagging far behind scientific and academic knowledge, the presence of avoidable inefficiencies in policy design and implementation, and policies that may not fulfill their purpose. While there is no real consensus on how to successfully improve linkages between research and policy, it is clear that understanding the specific context in which policy decisions take place is critical. To better understand the dynamics between agricultural research and policymaking in Nigeria, we examined the 2006 National Fertilizer Policy for Nigeria and the process that led to its writing and adoption.

× The majority of Nigeria's smallholder farmers are often too poor to employ modern tools, such as tractors and plows, even with substantial government support. In this respect, an agricultural mechanization policy would need effective targeting with regard to particular farming activities and types of farmers for which different forms of mechanization efforts could be directed. Key knowledge gaps for such targeting in Nigeria include the important roles of farm power in comparison with other improved agricultural inputs, such as improved seeds and fertilizer, and the prospects for adopting different forms of mechanization, including the use of improved hand tools.

× "Agriculture remains a major sector for the Nigerian economy. The majority of Nigerians rely on agriculture for their livelihood. It is increasingly evident that improved agricultural development and growth can offer a pathway from poverty, but evidence-based policies and strategies are needed. Nigeria's agricultural policies have been inconsistent, uncoordinated and ad hoc. Such agricultural policies have limited the realization of the sector's full potential. A paradigm shift towards a sound evidence-based policymaking process is needed to promote a more equitable, gender sensitive and environmentally sustainable growth in the agricultural sector. The recent food price surge has made this paradigm shift even more important. This brief overviews the recent performance of agriculture in Nigeria, reviews past key agricultural policies and strategies, and explores future options in promoting further agricultural growth." --Authors' Abstract

× Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, driven in large part by the fallout from the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia. Other factors, such as export bans, have also contributed to rising prices. Palm oil and wheat prices increased by 56 and 100 percent in real terms, respectively, between June 2021 and April 2022, with most of the in-crease occurring since February (Figure 1). Wide variation exists across products, with real maize prices increasing by only 11 percent and rice prices declining by 13 percent. The price of crude oil and natural gas has also risen substantially, while the weighted average price of fertilizer has dou-bled. With these changes in global prices, many developing countries and their development part-ners are concerned about the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty.

× This factsheet describes a planned project in Nigeria, working with existing partners, that will provide useful policy recommendations for empowering women in the public sphere. It has the potential to inform implementation of the National Gender Policy in Agriculture prepared by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and programming by the Federal Ministry of Women Affairs and Social Development (MWASD) by sharing specific lessons on how to harness women’s social capital and leadership skills to promote more equitable agricultural and development policies. The project pairs an intervention aimed at generating leadership skills, a sense of collective efficacy, and effective participation in local politics among women’s groups in Nigeria with a rigorous randomized controlled trial (RCT) to understand what works and how to give women a voice in their communities. It builds on programming by ActionAid Nigeria, our implementing partner; we will further refine this programming through qualitative work and embed it in a theory of change. ActionAid Nigeria prioritizes the leadership of women, especially those living in poverty and exclusion.

× Malnutrition, largely attributable to poor diets among both the rich and poor, presents a growing challenge in Nigeria. This brief considers the obstacles to food security and better nutrition, particularly the country’s macroeconomic instability, widespread poverty, and the need for greater investment and policy coherence to support dietary diversity. The authors describe how a policy shift to focus on consumer needs can transform the agrifood system to deliver healthier and more affordable diets for all Nigerians, as well as better and more secure rural livelihoods.

× This study estimates the effects of the shares of subnational public expenditure (PE) for agriculture, health, education, and social-welfare, as well as PE-size, on household-level outcomes, using nationally representative panel household data and district and state-level PE data for Nigeria. We find that greater shares of total PE allocated to agriculture, health, and social-welfare, conditional on PE-size, generally have positive effects on household consumption levels, poverty reduction, and non-farm business capital investments by households. A greater share of total PE for agriculture also positively benefits household dietary diversity across seasons. Moreover, household economic resilience, measured in terms of the economic flexibility a household has to shift between farming and non-farm activities, is more greatly enhanced through greater shares of total PE going towards agriculture than to health and social-welfare. These multi-dimensional benefits of greater PE for agriculture are particularly worthy of attention in countries, like Nigeria, which have historically allocated a low share of total PE to agriculture.

× The substantial differences in agricultural productivity between Asia and Africa can be largely explained by differences in use of modern inputs. The evidence suggests that better access to infrastructure (such as roads and irrigation) and agricultural services has given Asian farmers significantly better access to modern inputs, while Sub-Saharan African farmers without such an access are not able to fully exploit the benefits of modern agricultural inputs. This brief discusses the relationship between agricultural service provision and modern input use by farmers in Nigeria, with a focus on the differences among states and local government areas (LGA).

× Malnutrition is widespread in Nigeria, especially in rural areas. Nigerians are vulnerable to chronic food shortages, erratic supply, poor quality food, and fluctuating food prices. The huge investment in ensuring food and nutrition security for Nigerians has had limited success, and therefore, there is a need to review and learn from past interventions. This brief provides a glimpse at rural food and nutrition security in Nigeria and highlights gaps in existing knowledge and capacity to analyze Nigeria's food and nutrition security situation.

× Evidence-based policymaking relies on findings from research and analysis. The availability of information and data is the foundation for sound policy advice, but developing countries lack access to the timely knowledge and data fundamental for drawing reliable conclusions from research. Without a strong information management system, policy arguments are less likely to be effective. Therefore, it’s important to understand the relationship between research findings and decisionmaking. This brief summarizes results from an IFPRI assessment of the capacity of Nigerian libraries within the National Agriculture Research System (NARS) to support agricultural policy research.

× The agricultural sector in Nigeria is characterized by low productivity that is driven in part by low use of modern agricultural technologies. Poor access to credit is seen by many observers to be one of the key barriers to adoption of these technologies. Literature suggests that credit constraints impede individuals from investing in productivity enhancing agricultural technologies and, thus, poor farmers are unable to engage in high-return agricultural activities. Much policy discourse and research literature associates agricultural credit constraints with supply-side factors, such as farmers not having access to credit sources or high costs of borrowing, and, thus, recommend that such supply-side constraints be addressed to improve smallholders’ access to credit. However, demand-side factors, such as borrower’s risk-averse behavior, financial illiteracy, collateral requirements, or perceived high transactions costs, can also play important roles in credit-rationing for smallholder farmers.

× Nigeria faces a growing triple burden of malnutrition. First, chronic childhood undernutrition remains stubbornly high. Nationwide, 36.8% of children under five years were estimated to be stunted in 2018—only slightly down from 40.8% in 2008. This corresponds to an annual average decline of less than 0.4 percentage points over the last decade and was almost exclusively due to a reduction in the prevalence of child stunting in urban areas (Table 1). Second, micronutrient malnutrition, including iron deficiency anemia, is extremely widespread among young children and women of reproductive age. While the prevalence rate of anemia among children under five years slightly declined in rural areas between 2010 and 2018, it substantially increased in urban areas. Third, overweight and obesity among adults has been rising rapidly in both urban and rural areas. Over the last decade, the national prevalence rates of overweight and obesity (the extreme form of overnutrition) among nonpregnant women 15 to 49 years of age increased faster than the rate of child stunting decreased, driving the growth of the triple burden. Obesity significantly increases the risk of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as type-2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (like heart attack and stroke), and hypertension. The root cause of all forms of malnutrition is poor dietary quality, while poor water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions aggravate malnutrition.

× The importance of agriculture in Nigeria's economy cannot be understated. Farming and livestock rearing is the main livelihood for over 70 percent of households in the country. In 2008, agriculture contributed 42 percent of the country's GDP, significantly higher than the 18 percent derived from petroleum and natural gas production. However, the country's promising agricultural potential has not been realized. In all likelihood, low fertilizer use is a major factor in explaining the stagnant agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Widespread introduction of fertilizer began in the late 1970s with the proliferation of Agricultural Development Projects (ADPs). This brief presents the insights of village extension agents (VEAs) who are at the heart of the ADP concept and provide a uniquely informed perspective of the constraints to fertilizer use in the country.

× Over the last decade, land tenure reform and enhanced tenure security have been given greater attention by African governments, including Nigeria, as policy tools to encourage agricultural growth and to alleviate poverty. Land tenure security can generate agricultural investment incentives and lead to increased agricultural productivity through three channels (Besely 1995). First, it promotes long term investment in land by reducing expropriation risk. Second, it encourages investment by lowering transaction costs and allowing more productive farmers to purchase or rent land from less productive farmers, making both parties better off. Third, it reduces asymmetric information about land ownership rights, allowing individuals to use their land as collateral for loans encouraging investment. Less than 3 percent of the land in Nigeria is formally registered leaving the vast majority of the population to deal with tenure insecurity and its attendant negative implications on land related investment and agricultural productivity. This brief will examine current land policy and administration in Nigeria, landholders demand for tenure security, and present recommendations to improve administration of land.

× The current agricultural strategy of the Federal Government of Nigeria—the Agricultural Promotion Policy 2016-2020—carries forward the revitalization of the agricultural sector as outlined in the preceding strategy—the Agricultural Transformation Agenda 2011-2016. The Agricultural Promotion Policy aims to increase agricultural production to meet the food needs of the country’s rapidly growing population and transform agriculture from subsistence to commercial and export-oriented production. The complementary Agricultural Sector Food Security and Nutrition Strategy 2016-2025 declares improved food security and nutrition as main goals of the intended agricultural transformation and identifies priority areas that should guide the activities of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and aligned stakeholders to achieve these objectives. Both strategy documents emphasize the importance of policy-relevant and rigorous agricultural and nutrition research to inform policy priority setting and support decision-making processes. This policy note summarizes findings from a recent study by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) researchers that seeks to inform Nigerian policymakers and donors about the effects of agricultural transformation on food and nutrition security of farm households in Nigeria (Ecker et al 2018).

× Mechanization increases the power applied to agricultural operations and is one tool among many for improving farm productivity and increasing incomes for Nigeria’s farmers and processors. It alone cannot drive the transformation of agriculture (Pingali 2007). Farmers will mechanize to lower costs and ensure timeliness of operations, allowing a greater area of land to be cultivated. The demand for mechanization is therefore determined by the stage of agricultural transformation reflecting the use of complementary inputs (improved seeds, fertilizer), the intensity of farming, land holdings, and rural labor supply and thus wages. Countries across the developing world have mechanized at different rates corresponding to their level of agricultural transformation but also strongly influenced by government policies. Assessments of agricultural mechanization at the continental level have found that Nigeria has an agricultural sector characterized by both low productivity growth and low machinery growth relative to other African countries (2018, Malabo Montpellier Panel). This brief will examine some of the supply and demand side constraints that may be hindering the adoption of mechanization and outline strategies where government and donors can focus their efforts to better support farm productivity.

× Despite economic transformations and urbanization, declining shares of the workforce employed in the agricultural sector, and gradual growth of agricultural mechanization, production costs in the agricultural sector and food prices remain high in Nigeria relative to those in some of the other developing countries. Understanding how the adoption of mechanical technologies is related to agricultural productivity is, therefore, important for countries like Nigeria. Using farm household data from northern Nigeria as well as var-ious spatial agroclimatic data, this study shows that the adoption of key mechanical technologies in Nigerian agriculture (animal trac-tion, tractors, or both) has been high in areas that are more agro-climatically similar to the locations of agricultural research and de-velopment (R&D) stations, and this effect is heterogeneous, being particularly strong among relatively larger farms. Furthermore, such effects are likely to have been driven by the rise in returns-to-scale in the underlying production function caused by the adoption of these mechanical technologies. Agricultural mechanization, repre-sented here as the switch from manual labor to animal traction and tractors, has been not only raising the average return on scale but also potentially magnifying the effects of productivity-enhancing public-sector R&D on spatial variations in agricultural productivity in countries like Nigeria.

× Informal vendors are a critical source of food security in African cities and play a key role in food system transformation. However, the livelihoods of these traders and the governance constraints they encounter are not well-understood outside of primate cities. This study focuses on two distinct secondary cities in Nigeria – Calabar in the South-South geopolitical zone and Minna in the Middle Belt region. Local and state officials in each city were interviewed on the legal, institutional, and oversight functions they provide within the informal food sector. This was complemented with a survey of 1,097 traders across the two cities.

× The launch of the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) by the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) in 2011 represented a shift in strategy toward increasing the agricultural sector share of the Nigerian economy. The successor FMARD strategy document for 2015-2019, the Agriculture Promotion Policy (APP), encompasses many elements of the ATA and is supportive of a continued emphasis on enhancing government’s attention to and support for the agricultural sector. Given the many Nigerians involved in farming, these adjustments in policymaker focus toward boosting general agricultural development, including targeted initiatives for specific crops and industries, could have substantial effects on livelihoods across Nigeria, especially in terms of farm household planting and consumption decisions. Since much smallholder-produced food is consumed at home rather than sold, such changes would influence dietary intakes and nutrition-related health outcomes. Thus, the goals of this study were to: 1) assess current conditions in the country regarding food insecurity and malnutrition; and, 2) determine if the hypothesized linkages between food consumption and various household characteristics (e.g., agricultural production) and market factors (e.g., prices) are observable in household survey data.

× There is a need to undertake more thorough assessments of relevant agricultural machinery markets to determine why machine usage by farmers is potentially lower than it would be under ideal market conditions. Our study focuses on four-wheel tractors. Information and data on tractor market structure, conduct, and performance in Africa is sparse. To partly fill this gap, we implemented a qualitative review of two tractor markets in Nigeria – survey-based assessments of the business characteristics of tractor sellers in Kaduna state and of tractor owners in Benue state. Detailed characterizations of the vertical and geographic distribution of these businesses and identification of principal revenue sources and costs were obtained through the surveys.

× The focus of this study is on the physical infrastructure of marketplaces in Kebbi state, Nigeria, an agriculture-based state in the northwest. Kebbi state has distinct variation in climate within a crop year, and, hence, there is need for farmers and traders to store produced crops for use during the year. Increased investments in storage facilities in the state could accelerate agricultural development.

× Economies of scope (EOS) refer to the economic benefits of producing multiple types of outputs rather than specializing in producing a specific output. EOS closely relates to the potential for crop diversification. Using panel data from farm households and crop-specific production costs in Nigeria, we estimate how the adoption of animal traction or tractors affects EOS between rice, non-rice grains, legumes/seeds, and other crops, which are the crop groups that are most widely grown with animal traction or tractors in Nigeria.

× Recent studies found the extent of food price seasonality in sub-Saharan Africa to be two to three times greater than that observed on global markets. This implies that, despite decades of market liberalization in many countries, there remains much progress to be made to improve general food marketing conditions throughout Africa. This issue deserves research because the movements of prices during a crop year influence the consumption decisions of households, the production decisions of farmers, and the marketing decisions of traders.

× "In Nigeria, women are often marginalized in their access to economic, political, and social resources compared to men, rendering them relatively poorer than their male counterparts. Important differences also exist between women and men in their contributions to agriculture, and in poverty, nutrition and food security levels. This review aims to provide insights into the performance of agricultural activities by gender, and provide a gender analysis of poverty, nutrition, and food security. Gender awareness in these areas is critical in planning programs that seek to reduce poverty and malnutrition, and attain food security in Nigeria." --Authors' Abstract

× An agricultural system consists of production, processing, storage, marketing, extension, research, and training. While production is a result of land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship, its magnitude and efficiency from the farm to the consumer depend on handling, preservation, and the processes of making the products readily available and conveniently consumable, which are directed by government policies. For this reason, good institutional capacity for designing and implementing agricultural and rural development policies is critical for a successful agricultural system, and ultimately for food security. This brief highlights key issues on the capacity for designing and implementing agricultural and rural development policies, strategies, and programs in Nigeria.

× In spite of Nigeria's abundant natural and human resource endowment, poverty remains pervasive, multifaceted, and chronic. Given the most recent data available, it is estimated that approximately 69 million (or 54.4 percent) Nigerians lived in poverty in 2004, an increase of more than 24 percent since 1980. This brief deals with poverty in Nigeria and focuses on the determinants of poverty in rural households by identifying the household/community characteristics (such as the status of women) and region-specific risks that affect rural poverty and how they have changed over time.

× Demand patterns for improved seed vary significantly among individual farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa because of the different capacity of farmers to overcome various constraints. Understanding these differences is crucial for speeding up the adoption by farmers of improved seed varieties. Although researchers have identified certain factors that explain regional demand differences in Sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about which of those factors apply to Nigeria, and how empirical research can fill the knowledge gap. This brief summarizes key characteristics of the demand for seed among rice, cowpea and maize producers in Nigeria. It also recommends improvements to Nigeria�s seed distribution system that might help farmers obtain improved varieties on a timely basis.

× Designing agricultural strategies requires an understanding of the options for dealing with growth in the sector, its impact on targeted beneficiaries, and the investment required to achieve the growth. IFPRI's recent study identified agricultural growth and development options that can support comprehensive rural development in Nigeria, in line with its national agricultural strategy - the National Food Security Program - over the next nine years (2009-2017). This research highlighted five key issues to be considered when developing and updating agriculture strategies that aim to alleviate poverty through accelerated growth in the agriculture sector.

× In Nigeria, conventional financial institutions serve only about 35 percent of the active population, and the poor, especially women, have limited access to financial services. Private sector-led microfinance institutions (MFIs) are increasingly playing a role to fill this need. This brief provides an overview of the institutional environment of microfinance in Nigeria, as well as insights and recommendations for better reaching this audience, based on focus group discussions and case studies of self-employed women in rural areas of Edo State, Nigeria.

× The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP) includes a target of 6 percent annual agricultural growth, supported by the allocation of at least 10 percent of the national budget for agriculture. The Nigerian government has set a higher growth target of 10 percent annual agricultural growth in the medium term, since the country has already achieved the 6 percent target. To achieve such rapid agricultural growth in the next eight years (until 2017), improvements in factor productivity beyond land expansion may be needed, as well as increases in public spending to support the process. This brief assesses the amount, growth, and efficiency of public spending required for Nigeria to reach the agricultural growth target it has established in order to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of poverty reduction.

× Nigeria's economic performance since 2002 has improved, with growth averaging about 7.3 percent during 2002-07 (Global insight 2008). While the production of cassava, rice, and maize has responded to the associated improved policy incentives in recent years, factors such as poor infrastructure and limited market outlets have served as great disincentives to farmers. Using household data in a "Policy Analysis Matrix" (PAM) framework, the comparative advantage of Nigerian farmers in producing cassava, rice, and maize in high potential states, given current national policies, is examined.

× Available evidence suggests an ageing farming population in Nigeria, with an average age of 47 years and life expectancy at 47-50 years in 2008 (NBS 2008, Oboh et al., 2009). In 2009, the national unemployment rate was 19.7 percent with the youth accounting for more than 75 percent (NBS, 2010). Increased involvement of youth in agricultural activities will help reduce the problems of the ageing farm population and increasing youth unemployment. This brief explores issues related to youth involvement in agriculture such as socioeconomic characteristics of youth engaged in agriculture and factors hindering youth involvement in agriculture.

× Public-private sector dialogue in Nigeria's economic policymaking process is fragmented and unstructured. As a result, the private sector has moved to organize itself around trade groups, which have the tendency to seek self-interest. Advocacy groups can help bring balance in private-public sector dialogue. This paper explores agricultural advocacy groups in Nigeria as instruments for economic policy change by focusing on their organization, functions, achievements, constraints, and sustainability.

× Despite many efforts to ease Nigerian farmers' access to quality and affordable fertilizer, it remains a key challenge for Nigerian agricultural policymakers As a result, the Nigerian government is experimenting with implementing a fertilizer voucher scheme, which is intended to improve on the current fertilizer distribution system. This brief analyzes the application of input vouchers in the Nigerian states of Kano and Taraba in 2009. It explores the effect of the voucher program on the quantity and quality of fertilizer received; the timeliness of receipt, and the price paid by respondents.

× Low fertilizer use is one of the many reasons for low agricultural productivity in Nigeria. Fertilizer use estimated at 13 kg/ha in 2009 by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD), is far lower than the 200 kg/ha recommended by the FAO as well as the 104 kg/ha in South Asia and 142 kg/ha in Southeast Asia. This brief reviews existing studies on the fertilizer sector in Nigeria and provides a summary of the results of recent surveys and analytic work conducted by IFPRI in Nigeria under the Global Food Security Response (GFSR) initiative of the USAID.

× Much of Nigeria's recent economic growth can be attributed to its non-oil economy-primarily agriculture. But the recent agricultural growth has been driven mainly by expansion in areas planted while productivity has remained flat or declining. This brief provides insight for formulating policies and strategies to enhance profitability and productivity of major crops across Nigeria's agroecological zones.

× Malnutrition rates among children 0 to 36 months and women of reproductive age in Nigeria are high and vary significantly across rural urban locations, geopolitical zones, and agro-ecological zones, thereby constituting a significant public health challenge. Using the 2003 National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) data, this brief discusses the key determinants of child and maternal nutrition in Nigeria across these different zones.

× Farmer cooperatives are viewed as mechanisms to help improve the marketing environment for poor rural farmers faced with limited and uncertain consumer demand for the goods they produce. Cooperatives can help reduce production costs by organizing bulk input purchases for their members. They may also be used as social organizations and serve as a medium for enlightenment and capacity building. This brief explores the role of farmers' cooperatives in Nigeria by assessing their effectiveness in marketing and traceability services, as well as elucidating the constraints they face.

× Around the world, it is recognized in agricultural production and processing that energy (farm power) is perhaps the second most important input besides land). Yet the agricultural sector in Nigeria has access to less than one percent of the total conventional energy supply in the country (EarthTrends 2003). This brief explores solutions to the rural area energy gap by reviewing the potential for conventional and alternative sources of energy for agricultural production and processing.

× Small-scale private irrigation (SPRI) schemes make up much of the irrigated areas in Nigeria. These irrigated areas, though, are only about three percent of the cultivated area in the country. Constraints on SPRI expansion are investigated by many studies in Nigeria, but key knowledge gaps in at least four areas still need to be resolved. These gaps are: (1) lack of knowledge of water sources; (2) perceptions of risks associated with rainfall and access to good quality water; (3) transaction costs associated with investments in irrigation; and (4) effectiveness of public institutions activities in SPRI.

× The timely availability of seeds at planting time is considered one of the important factors for faster improved seed adoption in Nigeria. There is a lack of empirical information on how much more farmers are willing to pay (WTP) for seeds at planting time compared to a few months before planting time. The information on such WTP can help assess the feasibility of public sector support for the timely delivery of improved seeds. This study estimates how farmers' WTP for rice, cowpea and maize seeds varies depending on the purchase timing, using information on both farmers' observed purchase behaviors and their stated preferences. Results indicate that low-income farmers may prefer to pay higher prices for cowpea seeds if those seeds can be bought closer to planting season. Policy implications and future research needs are discussed.

× The important role of credit in agricultural enterprise development and sustainability has prompted the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) to establish credit schemes such as the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme (ACGS) and Agricultural Credit Support Scheme (ACSS) to ensure farmers' access to agricultural credit. Yet, the situation has not improved substantially; based on the 2006 Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire Survey, it is estimated that only 18 percent of farm households (mainly smallscale farmers) have access to financial services (Akramov 2009). This brief reviews existing knowledge on small-scale farmers' access to credit with particular focus on conditions for accessing credit, the maximum credit provided, repayment of credit, other factors limiting access, and the impact of credit on small-scale farmers.

× Most of Nigeria's poor reside in rural areas and gain their livelihood from agricultural work. If the government's poverty reduction goals are to be achieved, Nigeria will need an adequate level of strategically targeted investments in agriculture to upgrade rural infrastructure, boost productivity, and increase competitiveness. Before effective investment programs can be designed and implemented, however, it is important to have a clear understanding of the current pattern of public spending on agriculture. The Nigeria Agriculture Public Expenditure Review (NAGPER), a collaborative study carried out by a research team from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the World Bank, assesses the quantity and quality of public spending in agriculture and evaluates its degree of alignment with government policy goals. This brief summarizes NAGPER findings and key recommendations. --Authors' Abstract

× Agriculture is the principal source of food and livelihood in Nigeria, and employs nearly three-quarters of the nation's work force. Over the past two decades, agricultural yields have stayed the same or declined. Although there has been a recent rise in agricultural productivity, it is derived more from expanded planting areas for staple crops than from yield increases. Increasing and sustaining agricultural productivity should be a critical component of programs that seek to reduce poverty and attain food security in Nigeria. This brief presents sector-wide and commodity-specific constraints to increasing agricultural productivity in Nigeria.--Authors' Abstract

× Small-scale private irrigation schemes (SPRI) have been the major driving force behind the expansion of irrigated areas in Nigeria, despite government efforts to promote large scale public irrigation schemes. SPRI allows adjustment of irrigation schedules in accordance with observed crop needs. The irrigated area in Nigeria is, however, far below its potential and an increase in farmers’ investment in irrigation is essential. While Nigerian farmers’ low level of investment in irrigation may be partly due to low returns, it is also the result of high transaction costs associated specifically with making such an investment. Although reducing transaction costs is important because the reduction provides farmers with a more enabling environment, transaction costs are often unobservable and little is known about what factors contribute to them. This brief provides insights into how farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics relate to the transaction costs in irrigation pump investment. It also offers policy options to reduce such costs.

× Expenditures of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and the state Ministries of Agriculture in Nigeria need to be accounted for when assessing the extent to which Nigeria is meeting its pledge as a signatory of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) to commit a 10 percent share of total government expenditures toward agriculture. This policy note describes recent research that examines how expenditures on agricultural programs at the federal and state level have fluctuated in recent years and estimates the relative fiscal autonomy of FMARD and state Ministries of Agriculture.

× This brief explores recent developments in Ghana that lend insight into the drivers of mechanization and the appropriate role of government policy in supporting this transition.

× To better understand the drivers of chronic child undernutrition in northern Nigeria and how those drivers differ from those in other areas of the country, an econometric analysis was done of data from the 2008 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS). The analyses focused on children aged 6 to 23 months.

× To inform discussions on future programming to improve child nutrition, a rapid scoping study of the drivers of undernutrition in northern Nigeria was conducted. This report presents insights obtained from almost 70 key informants interviews and focus group discussions conducted in April and May 2017 in Kebbi and Bauchi states and in Abuja (Figure 1). The participants in these interviews and discussions included mothers and fathers of young children, community civic and religious leaders, local medical and public health officers, state-level officials from government and non-governmental organizations (NGO), experts on human nutrition, and national-level government and NGO officials.

× This study examines the drivers of perceived tenure insecurity in Nigeria. The determinants of perceived tenure insecurity are assessed across two indicators: private (idiosyncratic) tenure risk and collective (covariate) tenure security risk. The analysis shows that both private and collective tenure risk are higher for land parcels acquired via the traditional customary system, in contrast to purchased parcels. Private tenure risk/insecurity is higher in communities with vibrant land markets and for households that are located close to urban centers. On the other hand, collective tenure risk is lower in communities with improved economic status.

× Using nationally-representative farm household data and a case study in the North Central zone, this study shows that, first, the share of small-scale farmers in Nigeria who intensively irrigate some of their crops has declined in recent years, while the share of irrigating farmers who engage in less intensive irrigation has increased. Secondly, high production costs, particularly labor costs, are the major constraints to intensive irrigation.

× In this study, we measure the degree to which changes in key macroeconomic variables – global oil prices or donor funding levels – affect the fiscal conditions of the Kaduna Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (KDMAF), and, thus, the likelihood of the Kaduna government to sustain agricultural programs following a fiscal shock.

× This study focuses on differential implementation of Systematic Land Tenure Regularization (SLTR) across Nigerian states in order to understand the set of conditions that are more likely to facilitate reform. Geographically, the study focuses on six states: Cross River, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, and Ondo between 2012 and 2016. Methodologically, process-tracing was combined with a comparative analysis across the six states based on semi-structured interviews conducted with more than 90 stakeholders between July and October 2016.

× Using panel data from farm households in northern Nigeria and spatial data on agroecological factors, this study shows that crop productivity and technical efficiency at farm household level is positively affected by the degree of similarity between the agroecological conditions of the locations of these households and where major crop breeding institutes are headquartered. Where improved varieties are developed affects crop productivity in different locations.

× A large body of evidence has focused on the drivers of agricultural policymaking in both developed- and developing-country settings. However, several applicable theories and empirical analyses on the dynamics of policymaking have not yet been applied to public expenditure decision-making in agriculture, particularly in Africa. The NSSP Working Paper on which this Policy Note is based makes a contribution to this literature by drawing on the framework of actor-centered institutionalism (Scharpf 1997) to understand the drivers of public agricultural expenditures in Nigeria. Actor-centered institutionalism provides a set of conceptual tools useful for understanding the dynamics of complex policy processes that take place among various actors within an institutional setting. Using this framework, we empirically examine how political and budget institutions affect the incentives of actors involved in the public agricultural finance process at subnational level in Nigeria, structures the interactions between them, and ultimately shapes expenditure al-locations. In this study, we employ a single-case, embedded case study strategy which involves multiple sub-units of analysis that is appropriate in the context of Nigeria’s complex federal and de-centralized structure.

× There is a renewed attention to the performance of the ag-ricultural sector in Nigeria given its potential to serve as an engine of pro-poor growth, create jobs, and support economic diversification. Strategies to further transform agriculture need to be accompanied by efficient and effective public expenditures. In addition to analysis of the size and quality of agricultural spending, an understanding of the political-institutional setting within which public spending decisions are made is important. However, there is little known about the policy and political processes through which public agricultural expenditure al-locations are decided upon. This policy note synthesizes the findings of an empirical analysis of how the political and budget institutions of the states and Local Government Areas (LGA) of Nigeria affect the incentives of actors involved in the public agricultural finance process, shape the interactions between them, and ultimately influence expenditure allocations.

× Past agricultural mechanization efforts in Ghana and Nigeria have focused more on the styles of machinery used in western countries or Latin America, where average farm sizes are much larger. While West African countries, particularly Ghana, are still relatively land abundant compared to Bangladesh, seeking the right balance across various models is important for achieving mechanization growth across diverse types of farms. Learning from the experience of agricultural mechanization in Bangladesh offer useful inspirations toward how widespread mechanization growth can happen for smallholders in Ghana and Nigeria.

× The Nigerian government has embarked on an ambitious plan to make the country self-sufficient in rice production by 2015 under its current Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA). The plan is in response to the perceived threat to the Nigerian economy of larger volumes of milled rice imports into Nigeria, with an import bill currently exceeding US$2 billion. To reverse the growing trend in rice imports, the Nigerian government has introduced a number of key policies and investment strategies to increase domestic rice production and improve its competitiveness with imports. This is being done through a combination of import restrictions, input policy and institutional reforms, and direct investments along the rice value chain. However, little is known as to whether this ambitious short term goal can be achieved and what would be needed over the long term to sustain increased production. This policy note synthe-sizes the results of various analyses assessing the potential for Nigeria to transform its domestic rice sector to become competitive with imports. A number of key messages emerge: (1) import restrictions alone are insufficient because they are costly to implement and likely to be ineffective; (2) given agro-ecological conditions and biophysical potential, current rice technologies, and farmer characteristics, short term increases in rice production are unlikely to meet domestic demand; (3) sufficient support to small-to-medium scale rice pro-cessers to improve quality will be even more important than promoting large-scale milling technologies; and, (4) a combination of rice production technology growth and market improvement are fundamental prerequisites for raising rice self-reliance without hurting the overall economy.

× The majority of farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) lack the means to mitigate the impact of risks associated with rainfall and commodity prices due to financial constraints and the imperfect insurance markets in these countries. Because most SSA farmers are risk averse, they may be willing to invest in productive assets that can mitigate the impacts of such risks if their financial constraints are relaxed through external financial assistance. We analyze panel data on investment behavior of Nigerian farmers who received financial assistance for acquiring productive assets. The empirical results show that farmers facing higher rainfall risks are more likely to invest in irrigation pumps that can mitigate the impact of poor rainfall. Similarly, farmers facing the higher price fluctuations for unmilled cassava (gari) are more likely to invest in milling machines that enable them to sell milled cassava, an alternative cassava product with a more stable price. Public support for farmers’ acquisition of productive assets like irrigation pumps and milling machines will not only enhance their productivity but also help shield them from rainfall and commodity price risks.

× Nigeria’s efforts to decentralize its government system are aimed at improving service delivery. However, access to important social and economic services remains limited, especially for rural populations. The deficiencies in service delivery have been exacerbated by a strong urban bias in development policies and growing fiscal imbalances among the three tiers of government: national, state, and local. In particular, Nigeria faces a challenge in efficiently and effectively delivering agricultural and rural services at the local level to help the agricultural sector grow and alleviate poverty. To overcome this challenge, research suggests that the subnational governments, especially local governments, must be empowered with adequate tax and revenue authority to carry out their jurisdictional responsibilities. This brief summarizes existing knowledge on the decentralization of public service delivery to Nigeria’s rural sector.

× Nigeria is the world’s largest cassava producer and Africa’s largest rice importer. The government and private sector should figure out ways to enhance cassava’s competitiveness in the international market and improve the efficiency of domestic rice production and processing. A range of policies and initiatives can strengthen cassava and rice supply chains, all the way from production to marketing. However, because of the country’s massive size and diversity, different regions may face different constraints; following a decentralized approach to designing industrial policies and initiatives is the best course of action for Nigeria.