IFPRI Discussion Papers on Nigeria

× We conduct an original lab-in-the-field experiment on the decision–making process of married couples over the allocation of rival and non-rival household goods. The experiment measures individual preferences over allocations and traces the process of deferral, consultation, communication and accommodation by which couples implement these preferences. We find few differences in individual preferences over allocations of goods. However, wives and husbands have strong preferences over process: women prefer to defer decisions to their husbands even when deferral is costly and is not observed by the husband; men rarely defer under any condition. Our study follows a randomized controlled trial that ended a year earlier and gave large cash transfers over eighteen months to half of the women in the study. We estimate the effect of treatment on the demand for agency among women and find that the receipt of cash transfers does not change women’s bargaining process except in a secret condition when the decision to defer is shrouded from her husband. This suggests that the cash transfer to women increases their demand for agency but does not change the intra-household balance of power enough to allow them to express it publicly.

× Increasingly, gender transformative approaches (GTAs), which seek to transform the underlying causes of gender inequalities, including discriminatory gender norms, are being used in agrifood systems (AFS) interventions. A growing body of evidence finds that GTAs contribute to positive impacts on a wide range of important development outcomes and have potential for improving gender equality. One limitation to better understanding changes in AFS-based gender norms as a result of GTAs is a lack of appropriate quantitative tools for measuring these norms. This work is an important step in filling that gap. Herein we detail the collaborative process that we undertook in Nigeria and Tanzania to develop a quantitative approach to measuring gender norms in the cassava, poultry, and fisheries value chains in each country. We then provide guidance for how implementing and research partners using GTAs in AFS can apply our learnings to their own work.

× This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income.

The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

× One of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is reducing food loss and waste (FLW) across all stages of food value chains, including the on-farm production, the off-farm postharvest, processing, and distribution, and the household consumption stages. We employ general equilibrium models for Bangladesh, Kenya, and Nigeria to assess the economywide implications of reducing FLW at different stages of value chains. Halving FLW results in GDP increases of between 1.1 and 2 percent, with up to 13 million people lifted out of poverty across the three countries. Diets also improve – especially in Kenya and Nigeria – due to greater availability and lower prices of healthy foods such as fruits and vegetables. Although most of the gains originate from reducing FLW in the on-farm production stage, strong intersectoral linkages mean around 30 percent of measured GDP gains are realized in non-agricultural sectors. Reducing waste at the final consumption stage has small negative impacts on GDP as households purchase less food without reducing their food intake. We conclude that the significant economywide gains provide a justification for adopting FLW reduction strategies, although costing the policy and investment options needed to reduce FLW is an important area for future research.

× This paper combines panel data from nationally representative household-level surveys in Nigeria with long-term satellite-based spatial data on temperature and precipitation using geo-referenced information related to households. It aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, income shares, crop mix, and input use decisions. We measure climate change in harmful degree days, growing degree days, and changes in precipitation using long-term (30 year) changes in temperature and precipitation anomalies during the crop calendars. We find that, controlling for other factors, a 15 percent (one standard deviation) increase in change in harmful degree days leads to a decrease in agricultural productivity of 5.22 percent on average. Similarly, precipitation change has resulted in a significant and negative impact on agricultural productivity. Our results further show that the change in harmful degree days decreases the income share from crops and nonfarm self-employment, while it increases the income share from livestock and wage employment. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that farmers change their crop mix and input use to respond to climate changes, for instance reducing fertilizer use and seed purchases as a response to increases in extreme heat. Based on our findings, we suggest policy interventions that incentivize adoption of climate-resilient agriculture, such as small-scale irrigation and livelihood diversification. We also propose targeted pro-poor interventions, such as low-cost financing options for improving smallholders’ access to climate-proof agricultural inputs and technologies, and policy measures to reduce the inequality of access to livelihood capital such as land and other productive assets.

× This paper uses comprehensive and long time series monthly food price data and a panel dyadic regression framework to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated policy responses on spatial market integration across a diverse set of food items in Nigeria. The empirical results reveal several important insights. First, we show that a significant slowdown in the speed of adjustment and price transmission occurred during the pandemic. For some food items, the speed of adjustment and, by implication, spatial market integration weakened by two- to-threefold after the pandemic outbreak. The effect was especially pronounced for perishable food items. Second, lockdown measures and the spread of the pandemic triggered additional dispersion in market prices across markets. For example, lockdown measures were associated with a 5–10 percent reduction in the speed of readjustment toward long-term equilibrium. Third, additional underlying attributes of markets, including lack of access to digital infrastructure and distance between markets, exacerbated impacts associated with the pandemic. For instance, access to Internet service reduced the slowdown in the speed of adjustment caused by the pandemic, but longer distances between market pairs induced greater slowdown in the speed of price transmission. Our findings offer important insights for revitalizing the efficiency of food markets affected by the pandemic. The heterogenous impacts of the pandemic across value chains and markets reinforce the need to properly target post-pandemic recovery interventions and investments. Finally, we offer some insights to reduce the vulnerability of food and market systems to disruptions in future pandemics or similar phenomena that inhibit food marketing and trade.

× Managing biotic stress, such as pests, diseases, and weeds, remain critical in enhancing the productivity of agrifood systems in developing countries, including Nigeria. The public sector continues to seek solutions for efficient and effective measures for addressing these biotic stresses, ranging from varietal technologies, improved crop husbandry, and the application of agrochemicals. The field-level evidence remains scarce regarding the effectiveness of these measures in developing countries like Nigeria. Furthermore, increasing climate uncertainty poses further challenges in identifying effective measures. This study assesses the damage abatement effects of agrochemicals in Nigeria and how these effects are affected by weather shocks. We extend the standard damage abatement framework to 4 waves of farm panel data to minimize the potential bias due to the endogeneity in agrochemical use decisions. Our results indicate that weather shocks have significant effects. In particular, rising nighttime minimum temperatures above 20 ℃ have significantly increased damage abatement effects of pesticides in Nigeria. This is possibly because of increased pest activities induced by the warmer nighttime temperatures, which, in the absence of pesticide uses, would cause more significant damage to crops. These results hold for all crops combined, as well as individual crops, including cowpea and maize, for which Nigeria has intensified its effort in pest control through both agrochemicals and Bt varieties in recent years.

× Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Despite the importance of women’s voices and their empowerment in policy and decision-making processes, it is far easier to lament their absence than to define and measure them. We know that political empowerment, measured in terms of the share of women in government ministries and parliament, is low and is the weakest dimension in the Global Gender Gap. Yet such national statistics, while important and informative, risk mismeasuring women’s participation and influence in public life and do not give policymakers and advocacy organizations traction on specific gaps and opportunities for increasing women’s voice in policymaking. With this situation in mind and focusing on agrifood systems, which are crucial for delivering the SDGs, we developed an assessment framework—Women’s Empowerment in Agrifood Governance (WEAGov)— to assess women’s voice and empowerment in national policy processes in agrifood systems. This paper presents the first pilot-testing of WEAGov in Nigeria. In this paper, we present how the WEAGov tool works in the Nigerian context, analyze the data, and provide diagnostic on the status of women’s voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process. As discussed in this paper, the pilot-testing in Nigeria provides useful lessons toward improving the measurement for future use and provides valuable policy insights on critical entry points for increasing women’s voice and empowerment in the national agrifood policy process.

× Smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is commonly characterized by high levels of technical inefficiency. However, much of this characterization relies on self-reported input and production data, which are prone to systematic measurement error. We theoretically show that non-classical measurement error introduces multiple identification challenges and sources of bias in estimating smallholders’ technical inefficiency. We then empirically examine the implications of measurement error for the estimation of technical inefficiency using smallholder farm survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. We find that measurement error in agricultural input and production data leads to a substantial upward bias in technical inefficiency estimates (by up to 85 percent for some farmers). Our results suggest that existing estimates of technical efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa may be severe underestimates of smallholders’ actual efficiency and what is commonly attributed to farmer inefficiency may be an artifact of mismeasurement in agricultural data. Our results raise questions about the received wisdom on African smallholders’ production efficiency and prior estimates of the productivity of agricultural inputs. Improving the measurement of agricultural data can improve our understanding of smallholders’ production efficiencies and improve the targeting of productivity-enhancing technologies.

× Knowledge gaps remain as to how longer-term public investments (PI) such as agricultural research and development (R&D), and short-term interventions through other public expenditures in agriculture (PEA) complement each other in enhancing productivity and efficiency in the agrifood sector. This study attempts to partly fill this gap by using nationally representative panel household survey data, subnational PEA data, locations of national agricultural R&D, and various spatial agroclimatic data in Nigeria. The analyses generally indicate that marginal returns to agricultural inputs/services (fertilizer, agricultural mechanization, irrigation, extension, agricultural equipment, and family labor) often increase by PI that raise overall agroclimatic similarity (AS) (through R&D locations), as well as increase PEA-share by subnational governments. There is often complementarity between these PI and PEA, particularly for extension services, investment in agricultural equipment, irrigation, and in the northern part of the country. Promoting further adoptions of modern inputs/services, increasing PEA-share, and selecting PI for agricultural R&D given in-country variations in agroclimatic conditions can help raise agricultural profitability and incomes in Nigeria.

× This paper compares the empowerment impacts of the UN Joint Program for Rural Women’s Economic Empowerment (JP RWEE) in Ethiopia, Niger, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan using the Abbreviated Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (A-WEAI). We assess the extent of empowerment and gender parity, and decompose the sources of disempowerment, separately for men and women and for beneficiary and control groups. We then estimate program impacts on A-WEAI and its component indicators and assess whether estimated impacts are consistent with the activities implemented by the program. We interpret the quantitative results in the light of the qualitative studies undertaken as part of the impact evaluation. Despite the diversity in country and cultural contexts, in all four countries, women are more disempowered than men, although large proportions of men are themselves disempowered. Excessive workload is the most common major contributor to disempowerment, and so is lack of group membership. The program had positive impacts on aggregate empowerment measures for program participants in Niger, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan. Nevertheless, gender parity improved only in Nepal. The group-based approach was a clear contributor to women’s empowerment in Ethiopia, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan. In Kyrgyzstan, the GALS/BALI approach contributed to impacts across almost all indicators of empowerment. The positive impact of GALS and GALS/BALI on men and women alike in Kyrgyzstan is consistent with emerging evidence that involving both men and women in gender transformative approaches, rather than focusing on women alone, may be key to effective and sustainable programs. Although impacts on time use were insignificant in the quantitative study, the qualitative work pointed out negative impacts, emphasizing the unintended consequences of increased workload for women who participate in livelihood interventions.

× In its endeavor to improve agricultural productivity, food security, and livelihoods, Nigeria has pursued several approaches in fertilizer policy. Most of these approaches revolved around variants of government-financed subsidy programs. This paper assesses the history of fertilizer policies in Nigeria and the tenets of the fertilizer policies in two recent national agricultural policy documents – the Agricultural Transformation Agenda (ATA) (2010/11-2016) and the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP) (2016-2020). Our review results show that despite some recent achievements in ATA and APP, Nigerian fertilizer policies have lacked consistency and continuity, which in turn affected the functioning of supply chains, logistics channels including distribution costs, fertilizer prices, farmers’ access to the input, and, ultimately, application rates and crop productivity. Thus, though Nigeria is one of the leading producers of fertilizer in sub-Saharan Africa, fertilizer consumption and farm application rates are generally low (below 20 percent of the application rate per hectare (ha) in developed countries). Moreover, several exogenous factors including poor infrastructure (especially bad roads), credit constraints, extension services, high fertilizer prices, lack of access to information, security threats, and lack of quality control or assurance also affect the functioning of fertilizer supply chains in Nigeria. The newly adopted national agricultural policy (National Agricultural Technology and Innovation Policy (NATIP) promises to build on ATA and APP and gradually deregulate the fertilizer sector to incentivize private sector investments in local fertilizer production and distribution. NATIP also requires the incorporation of practical approaches to tackle important exogenous constraints. We anticipate NATIP’s commitment to policy continuity and addressing exogenous challenges will bring efficiency and effectiveness to the fertilizer sector in Nigeria.

× Despite the potential importance of seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, many governments in sub-Saharan Africa lack the capacity to expand quality assurance systems even where there is expressed interest. This study aims to evidence the value of quality assurance systems with an analysis of efforts to produce and distribute certified seed in Nigeria. We assess the associations between quantities of certified seeds produced and spatial variations in production locations proxied by headquarter locations of seed companies producing certified seeds, on the one hand, with spatial variations in the use of certified seed, yields, and output at the farm level, on the other hand. Our analysis covers three crops that are important to food security in Nigeria: maize, rice, and cowpea. Our analysis integrates information on seed quantities produced and locations of seed companies with nationally representative panel data from a survey of farm households and spatially explicit rainfall and temperature data. We find a positive relationship between certified seed production in proximity to farm households and farm-level use of certified seeds, yields, and output, although this effect is diminishing at the margin. These diminishing marginal effects may be partly due to two factors. First, the yield gains from certified seeds tend to vary considerably within each state, suggesting that either quality issues persist in the seed supply chain or farmers are not using complementary inputs or appropriate management techniques when using quality seed. Second, it may be that as certified seed becomes more available to farmers, its use spreads from higher-return farms to lower-return farms, thereby diminishing the gains on the extensive margin. Although more rigorous assessments of causal effects and cost-effectiveness are needed to validate these findings, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that there are diminishing returns to seed quality assurance. Policymakers, regulators, and seed providers may benefit from identifying optimal, crop-specific target quantities or rates for certified seed production rather than aiming for certification of all seed produced in a market.

× Agricultural commercialization is often pursued as an important driver of agricultural transformation in low-income countries. However, the implications it can have on gendered outcomes are less understood. While agricultural commercialization creates opportunities to increase income, this may come at the expense of change in women’s decision-making agency and control over resources. Understanding the interactions between agricultural commercialization and gender outcomes is thus critical for policymakers aspiring to achieve agricultural transformation while promoting gender equity and the evidence on the links between the two in the context of Africa is scarce and mixed. We use three rounds of Ethiopia’s and Nigeria’s LSMS-ISA panel data to understand the implications of agricultural commercialization to gendered decision-making on crop harvest use, marketing, revenue control, asset ownership, and intrahousehold budget allocation. Results indicate commercialization is associated with decreases in women’s participation in decision-making related to use of harvest, crop marketing, and control over revenue in Ethiopia, but only on harvest use and control over revenue in Nigeria. The association with land ownership is mixed: positive in Ethiopia but negative in Nigeria. Moreover, commercialization is associated with decreases in women’s share of farm-workload but with increases in share of hired labor in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia we also find women’s control over revenue is positively associated with increases in per capita consumption expenditures and dietary diversity, but men’s control is negatively associated with increases in the share of expenditure on children’s shoes and clothes. In Nigeria, women’s control is positively associated with increases in the share of expenditure on women’s shoes and clothes, food gap, and dietary diversity. In sum, we find suggestive evidence that commercialization may further marginalize women’s decision-making agency in Ethiopia and Nigeria. However, conditional on women’s control over proceeds, commercialization tends to improve women’s as well as other members’ welfare. We provide some policy recommendations and directions for future research.

× Sustainable intensification is predicated on climate-smart agricultural input adoption. We test strategies for promoting the adoption of climate-smart agricultural inputs in Nigeria with a private sector firm. We disentangle the effects of price discount promotions (25 percent discounts) relative to the firm’s standard “business as usual” marketing package. We find that the standard marketing package increases the adoption of climate-smart urea super granule (USG) fertilizer by 24 percentage points while reducing prilled urea utilization by 17 percentage points. Discounts increase adoption of USG by an additional eight percentage points, but are not profitable for the input supply firm as a scalable marketing strategy. Although treatment reduces nitrogen runoff damages valued between USD 43 and 113 per hectare, it did not lead to increased rice yields for farmers.

× We combine nationally representative data from Nigeria with spatiotemporal data from remote sensing and other sources to study how young migrants respond to observable characteristics of potential destinations, both in absolute terms and relative to origin locations. Migrants prefer destinations with better welfare, land availability and intensity of economic activity. We also find that migrants prefer shorter distances and those destinations with better urban amenities and infrastructure. However, responses vary by type of migrant and migration. For example, rural-rural migrants are more responsive to land availability and agricultural potential, while rural-urban and urban-urban migrants are more responsive to welfare and economic vibrancy (measured by nightlight intensity) in destinations. Distance induces varying impact on migration choices of poor and non-poor migrants as well as across more educated and less educated migrants. Longer distances discourage migration for female migrants, poorer migrants and less educated migrant while the implication for the non-poor and more educated migrants appears to be negligible. This is intuitive because poorer and less educated migrants have liquidity constraints to finance high migration costs. Our results suggest potential scope for predicting how labor mobility responds to alternative regional development policies.

× Time use, or how women and men allocate their time, is an important aspect of empowerment. To build on this area of study, we propose and explore the concept of time-use agency in this paper, which shifts the focus from the amount of time spent on activities to the strategic choices that are made regarding how to allocate time. We draw on 92 interviews from qualitative studies in Benin, Malawi, and Nigeria to explore across contexts the salience of time-use agency as a component of women’s empowerment. Our results indicate that time-use agency is salient among both women and men and dictates how women and men are able to make and act upon strategic decisions related how they allocate their time.
Our findings suggest that time-use agency is important for fully understanding empowerment with respect to time use. Importantly, this study highlights the gendered dynamics and barriers women face in exercising their time-use agency. These barriers are tied to and conditioned by social norms dictating how women should spend their time. Women often make tradeoffs throughout any given day with respect to their time, balancing their expected priorities with the barriers or limitations they face in being able to spend any additional time on tasks or activities that further their own strategic goals. Additionally, these results on time-use agency echo similar themes in the literature on gendered divisions of labor, time poverty, and decision-making, but also add new subtleties to this work. For example, we find that women can easily adjust their schedules but must carefully navigate relationships with husbands to be able to attend trainings or take on new income generating activities, results that align with previous findings that women consistently have higher involvement in small decisions compared to large ones. While these themes have been observed previously in studies of women’s empowerment, to our knowledge, our study is the first to connect them to time use and time-use agency. Our study contributes the conceptualization of time-use agency, and the identification of themes relevant to time-use agency, through the emic perspectives of women and men across three diverse settings in Sub-Saharan Africa.
As a concept, time-use agency goes beyond measuring time use to understand the gendered dynamics around controlling one’s time use to advance their own strategic goals and highlights any barriers one faces in doing so. It is a particularly relevant concept for interventions that aim to increase (or at least, not diminish) women’s empowerment by promoting women’s involvement in remunerated activities. Although time-use agency, as a concept, has yet to be addressed in women’s empowerment literature. A next step in this area of inquiry is to develop survey indicators on time-use agency, which may reduce bias and cognitively burden compared to existing time use surveys.

× Engaging burgeoning youth populations in developing country agriculture is seen as an important strategy toward effective, efficient, and sustainable food system transformation. Yet the policy, institutional, technological, and capability barriers and ways to overcome them for successful participation of youth in agriculture are not fully understood. We use a conceptual framework that identifies key pathways to prosperity for youth and classifies contextual and driving factors that contribute to the success of youth engagement in agriculture. The framework comprises four broad categories of strategic interventions: policy and socioeconomic environment; institutional; technological/business infrastructure; and individual skills and capacities. In the context of this framework, we then present insights from cases of youth participation in agriculture in five countries: Guatemala, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda. The countries and cases were purposively selected as part of ongoing research on youth engagement in agriculture.
Policies and strategies play an important role in creating an enabling environment for youth engagement in agriculture, including by fostering transparency and accountability in the policy system and promoting youth engagement in the private sector through agricultural extension and other services. Institutions and intermediaries provide financial support, training, and access to market for youth entrepreneurs. Support in these areas should be strengthened. Systems approaches, such as multi-stakeholder platforms, provide holistic support to young agripreneurs (entrepreneurs in agriculture), but require effective coordination. Similarly, information and communication technologies can play a facilitating role by providing platforms to network and receive updated market information but need to be significantly scaled up. Individual capacities can drive youth engagement in agriculture and agripreneurship but must continue to be built up through expanded education and training on technical and functional skills.
As policymakers and program managers search for interventions that can promote youth involvement in agriculture in their own countries, the insights from the five countries examined that are presented in this paper may be useful for identifying context-specific challenges and pathways to successful youth engagement in agriculture in their own countries. The framework presented here can be applied to study youth engagement issues in any country or in sub-national, decentralized contexts to generate evidence to guide the design of youth-in-agriculture development programs. There is a need to support, strengthen, and implement the driving factors identified in this paper for expanding youth engagement in agriculture.

× Malnutrition, mostly resulting from poor food, health, and care practices, is related to physiological, socioeconomic, and psychological factors and remains one of the leading causes of mortality in children under five years of age in low- and middle-income countries. Nigeria, as with many parts of the world, is experiencing a multiple malnutrition burden, where undernutrition, including micronutrient deficiencies, exists alongside overweight, obesity, and associated diet-related non-communicable diseases. Recent data show that 37 percent of children under five years of age are stunted while 68 percent suffer some degree of anaemia. Overweight and obesity are also common among adults with prevalence rate of about 33 percent. The Nigerian government embraces sustainable food system approaches in its policy and programmes to address malnutrition problems in the country. Food systems approaches take a holistic understanding of all activities and processes involved in food production, processing, storage, transportation, trade, transformation, retail, and consumption.
In this paper, we identify and discuss the types of research that can support the operationalization of food systems approaches to improving the quality of diets in Nigeria. Specifically, we structured a consultative workshop with key stakeholders, reviewed the literature, and applied food systems framework to the Nigerian context. The process enabled us to identify 39 research questions crucial to: understanding how changes in food systems can lead to healthier diets; identifying and testing entry points for improving availability and effective demand for healthier food; and creating at scale a supportive policy and market environment for achieving heathier and sustainable diets in Nigeria.

× To address malnutrition in low- and middle income countries (LMICs), more evidence is needed about the potential of food system innovations to help guide the transformation towards healthier, more sustainable, and equitable food systems. This paper reviews the literature on food system innovations in the food environment and addressing consumer behavior on diet and nutrition-related outcomes in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Viet Nam, and other LMICs, then highlights promising innovations and demonstrates gaps in the literature. In the food environment, promising innovations include nutrition-relevant multi-sectoral national policy backed by effective implementation; institutional purchasing offering healthy meals in school or factory environments; compulsory nutrition labelling; and fortified foods, if these can be durably offered or viably commercialised. Promising innovations influencing consumer behavior include unhealthy food taxes; large-scale information campaigns raising awareness about specific unhealthy food items; and campaigns that provide information and/or fortified food (supplements) to address nutrition of infants and young children. Promoting women’s empowerment and targeting women with nutrition information could be effective food system innovations addressing consumer behavior, but deliberation is needed about risks of emphasizing the instrumental role of gender equity and women’s empowerment for nutrition or reinforcing gender roles and increasing women’s responsibilities. That said, our review also demonstrates a general lack of evidence on most types of food system innovations in the four primary countries of study. More evidence is needed on several types of food systems innovations before definitive advice can be given on guiding food systems transformations towards healthier diet outcomes. This review therefore acts as a starting point for addressing country-specific food system challenges and identifies needs for further research.

× In many developing countries, smallholder farmers cultivating vegetatively propagated crops (VPCs) have limited access to quality planting material. This constraint can limit both the yield of and returns on VPC cultivation. Yet policy and regulatory initiatives designed to strengthen access to quality VPC planting materials have been relatively unsuccessful to date. Part of the problem is the unique biological and economic characteristics of vegetative propagation and its distinctness from cereal crops, which dominate narratives on seed system reforms. Drawing on qualitative analysis of policy and practice, this study examines reform options related to quality assurance regulations in four crop-country combinations: cassava in Nigeria and Vietnam, and potato in Kenya and Vietnam. The study highlights theory and evidence on existing models of regulation; alternative models that may better incentivize cost-effective multiplication and distribution; and recommendations for policy, regulation, and investment in VPC seed markets. Findings indicate that regulations designed around strict and centralized quality control systems tend to limit market size, while more localized production systems are limited by both capacity and reach. These findings suggest the need for alternatives that balance a permissive regulatory regime with decentralized production systems, grassroots capacity development, market surveillance, and systems that integrate internal (producer-level) quality assurance with external (regulatory) quality assurance.

× Modern cooling technologies that utilize renewable energy sources have been increasingly recognized as a promising tool to address a multitude of challenges emerging in progressively complex food systems in developing countries. When provided as cold-storages inside horticulture markets, cooling technologies can potentially contribute to improved quality of products and strengthened vertical linkages. Knowledge gaps about the actual impacts of these technologies in developing countries remain, especially in Africa south of Sahara (SSA). This study partly fills this knowledge gap by providing evidence from the evaluation of recent interventions in northeast Nigeria in which 7 small solar-powered cold-storages were installed across 7 horticulture markets. Combinations of difference-in-difference and variants of propensity-score-based methods suggest that using cold-storages significantly increased horticulture sales volumes and revenues of market-agents. Back-of-the-envelope calculations indicate that increased net revenues for market-agents may be sufficiently large to recoup the investments and operating costs of cold-storages within a reasonable time frame. Using cold-storage also reduced the share of food loss and lengthened the products' shelf-life, while raised prices received by both market-agents and farmers, which were associated with improved product quality, expanded value-adding activities by market-agents, and increased use of advance payments. We find no evidence of negative spillover effects inside horticulture markets. Finally, additional food-science experiments confirm that cold-storages preserve original physical and nutritional qualities of key horticultural products several days longer than products stored under ambient temperature.

× The importance of an enabling environment for effective nutrition advocacy is well-recognized, and several key elements of such an environment have been well-established in existing research. However, nutrition policies are multi-faceted, and advocates may target different elements of the policy process, from agenda setting to design to implementation. As a result, enabling environments are neither uniform nor static. Drawing on 66 interviews with a diverse group of stakeholders in Nigeria at the federal and subnational level, we examine some of the factors that have facilitated or hindered the ability of advocates to influence policy implementation in the domains of infant and young child feeding (IYCF) and large-scale food fortification. In doing so, we show the importance of considering the politics, institutions, and resources specific to discrete policy categories as well as the characteristics of the broader policy system in which advocates are operating. By working across these two levels, advocates can both be reactive to the prevailing enabling environment as well as proactively consider strategies for overcoming obstacles.

× The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on households’ income, jobs, and food security have continued despite perceptible reductions in transmission and lifting of restrictive policy measures in several countries. To assess these effects on Nigerian households, we collected household data in the initial three months after the outbreak of the pandemic (July 2020). To track the changes since the first survey, we conducted a follow-up phone survey with the same households a year later (July 2021). We undertook a comparative analysis between the two surveys focusing on key variables such as income loss, job loss, food security, and dietary diversity. The study also investigated how changes in income, wealth/endowments, social capital, safety net programs, and recurrent conflicts affected the severity of food insecurity amid the pandemic. We found that both income and jobs have rebounded significantly (by 50 percentage points) compared to the baseline results. In terms of food insecurity, households with “severely food insecure” situations dropped from 73 percent in the first survey to 65 percent in the follow-up survey. We also found a 5-percentage point improvement in the household dietary diversity scale in the follow-up survey. However, households reported an increase of more than 70 percent in conflicts or insecurity threats amid the pandemic. This affected farm investment decisions in 44 percent of smallholder farmers surveyed. While income loss significantly worsened households’ food insecurity; livestock ownership and social capital cushioned households from falling into a more severe food insecurity situation. However, safety net programs provided by the government and NGOs did not significantly protect households from falling into severe food insecurity amid the pandemic. We suggest four policy propositions: prioritize investment in job creation to curb income loss; enable households to build their wealth base (e.g., land tenure security or livestock) to enhance resilience to shocks; revisit targeting approaches of safety net programs to enhance effectiveness of such programs; and finally, devise and implement conflict resolutions to induce investment and enhance productivity.

× Agricultural research and development (R&D) is one component of public investments in the agricultural sector toward food system transformation. Enhancing the effectiveness of agricultural R&D remains critical, given increasingly scarce public resources. Exploring spatial spillover potentials has been one way to enhance the effectiveness of agricultural R&D. Geographical locations of National Agricultural Research Systems (NARS) research activities are recognized as an important factor affecting such spatial spillover potentials. However, evidence is generally limited in Africa south of Sahara (SSA) as to the spillover potentials of NARS-developed technologies. This paper partly aims to fill this knowledge gap by obtaining insights for maize, one of the most commonly grown crops in SSA, using nationally representative farm household data for Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda, and spatial agroclimatic data. Building on recent literature, this study proxies spillover potentials by “agroclimatic similarity” (AS) indicators between locations where agricultural R&D for maize is conducted by NARS (research locations) and where each farm household is located (farm locations). Results of the analyses suggest that an indicator of the total factor productivity of maize growing farm households, the land productivity of maize, and the use of improved maize varieties are generally higher in farm locations that share similar agroclimatic conditions with maize research locations of NARS. These patterns hold for all four countries studied, even after controlling for the physical proximity to maize research stations and other farm household characteristics. The findings contribute to better understanding of how geographic locations of public investments affect their overall effectiveness as well as returns in maize production and the agricultural sector in general.

× Gender differences in the engagement of work activities across sectors are important elements of gender inequality in rural livelihoods and welfare in developing countries. The role of production technologies, including agricultural mechanization, in addressing gender inequality, is increasingly explored. Knowledge gaps remain, however, including, how agricultural mechanization differentially affect labor engagements across sectors. This study aims to partly fill these knowledge gaps through micro-evidence from 8 countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Nepal, Tajikistan and Vietnam), using several nationally representative panel data and supplementary data, and applying Correlated-Random-Effects Double-Hurdle models with Instrumental-Variables. We find that the use of tractors and/or combine harvesters by the household induces greater shift from farm activities to non-farm activities by female members than by male members. While statistical significance varies, these patterns generally hold consistently across all 8 countries studied. These patterns also seem to hold across different farm sizes. While these are short-term relations, agricultural mechanization proxied by tractor and/or combine harvesters is one of the important contributors to gendered rural livelihood. Future studies should more closely investigate underlying mechanisms and implications of these patterns.

× One of the greatest global challenges today is ensuring widespread availability and equitable access to affordable, nutritious foods produced in an environmentally sustainable manner. A rich literature exists around the definition of a healthy diet and the drivers of dietary change. We contribute to this literature by proposing a new quantifiable diet deprivation measure estimated from standard household consumption and expenditure surveys. The Reference Diet Deprivation (ReDD) index measures the incidence, breadth, and depth of diet deprivation across multiple, essential food groups in a single indicator. Although useful as a standalone measure, we show how ReDD can be integrated into an economywide model to examine changes in household diet quality under different simulation scenarios. Using Nigeria as case study, hypothetical agricultural productivity growth scenarios reveal that dairy, pulses, fruit, and red meat value chains have the greatest potential to reduce overall diet deprivation in Nigeria per unit of GDP growth generated, while productivity growth in more widely consumed crops such as cereals and root crops do little to improve diet quality. These findings have implications for the prioritization of agricultural development initiatives aimed at improving the quality of diets. More generally, the integration of a diet quality indicator in an economywide model allows for a deeper understanding of the drivers of dietary change.

× Child labour in agriculture remains a global concern. Agriculture is the sector where most child labour is found. Employment of children mostly relates to farm household poverty in developing countries. This raises the question of the extent to which the modernisation of agriculture prevents the use of child labour while also leading to higher productivity. One of the central questions in this context is whether agricultural mechanisation helps limit children’s employment. Available studies have put forward opposing hypotheses, but rigorous empirical evidence is scant. The present study aims to fill some of this void by studying the evidence from comparable farm household survey data in seven developing countries, including three in Asia (India, Nepal, and Vietnam) and four in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Tanzania).
Various key findings emerge. First, many children are found to engage in productive activities in studied countries. The prevalence is particularly high in African countries, such as in Ethiopia where more than one third of children aged 5-14 years engage in farm or off-farm work. Second, while the prevalence of child labour in agriculture (i.e., when productive engagement is detrimental to schooling and child growth) is much lower (at 10% or less in seven countries), they are still sizable in absolute terms; at least 6 million children in these countries partake in agricultural work at the expense of opportunities in adulthood. Third, agricultural mechanization, reflected in farm household’s use of machinery such as tractors, significantly reduces the likelihood of use of children’s labour and increases school attendance. Fourth, the measured impacts of mechanization are only modest, however, and likely indirect, that is, dependent on the extent to which mechanization helps improve household income and on local conditions (such as quality of rural infrastructure and accessibility of education and other social services).
Overall, promotion of agricultural mechanization can help prevent use of child labour. To be truly impactful, however, related support measures should be embedded in broader strategies to enable agricultural productivity growth and improve livelihoods of poor rural households.

× The aim of Nigeria’s extension reform and transformation agenda through its new national extension policy (NEP) is to put in place a legislated, pluralistic, farmer-responsive, and market-oriented extension system. The reformed extension system aims at an assured and regular source of funding and a well-trained and motivated staff, effectively catering for a variety of actors along targeted value chains. It also aims at effective integration of the complex innovation processes in the agricultural and food system transformation in Nigeria. Implementation of the NEP at the state level remains a major challenge. This paper documents issues, challenges, constraints, and potential solutions and opportunities in implementing NEP at the state level using Niger State as a case study. We use a qualitative method in the context of inclusive consultative process with a focus on the multi-stakeholder participatory model. We found that strengthening actors’ capacities for innovation by considering the complexity of agricultural innovation system is very critical to effective and successful implementation of national agricultural policies in Niger State. We confirm from our study that “networking, partnership facilitation, and collaboration” functions are crucial cross-cutting measures across the agricultural innovation system for operative and systematic implementation of the NEP in Niger State. Based on our findings in Niger State, even if we make effort to draw generic lessons for Nigeria, the case studies show that understanding the dynamics of efficiently and productively implementing the National Extension Policy remain case-specific, and no ‘silver bullet’ can be provided to support agricultural innovation system due to the complex federal governance system in Nigeria. Therefore, a state-level or case-specific is highly recommended for operational implementation process in Nigeria.

× Nigeria’s rural youth are facing various challenges in agriculture, with limited job opportunities outside the sector. Using qualitative focus group discussions and individual interviews with youth in four communities in two Nigerian states, the paper reflects on nuanced differences in perceptions of opportunities, coping mechanisms and overall resilience of youth in rural Nigeria, as well as differential access to information, inputs and irrigation based on age, gender and community. We apply the GCAN framework, to illustrate the factors that shape resilience pathways in the context of climate change and other shocks and stressors. Many of the constraints rural youth face are faced by other groups, including lack of finance, farm inputs and modern equipment for production and processing. Yet, youth face higher and specific hurdles related to lack of capital, experience and a strong social capital and networks that would facilitate coping with climatic and other shocks and improving their livelihoods. Young women in particular have less access to information and irrigation, and are less likely to benefit from cooperative memberships. Nevertheless, young men and women have higher resilience compared to older groups in terms of health, mobility and ability to migrate, as well as easier access to the internet as a source of information. Youth can better build resilience and a network and receive government assistance when part of a cooperative. Nevertheless, a larger enabling environment in the sector is needed, to improve roads, access to markets, information, inputs and equipment to support young farmers who cannot leave the agriculture sector. A promising factor is that many young men and women realize the importance of agriculture and aspire to become successful in the sector.

× Agricultural extension plays a number of important roles in the growth and transformation of the agricultural sector, including improving agricultural productivity and food security and reducing hunger and malnutrition. Extension programs and interventions that will achieve significant impacts in terms of behavior and practice changes, as well as agricultural productivity increase, will succeed as a result of suitable policy formulation and an effective implementation process. Ultimately, agricultural extension reform requires policy vision and determination and a state-level strategy that can be implemented. This paper documents issues, challenges, constraints, and potential solutions and opportunities in implementing the national extension policy (NEP) at the state level in Nigeria, using Cross River State as a case study.
We use both quantitative and qualitative methods, in the form of descriptive statistical analysis and an inclusive consultative process with a focus on the multistakeholder participatory model, respectively. The descriptive results show that, generally, there is low access to agricultural extension service across commodities and their respective values chains in Cross River State. We also document interesting insights from the multistakeholder consultative process. We find that collaboration and partnership between private and public extension service providers is key to developing a sustainable extension, advisory, and support service in Cross River State. We also found that coordination and standardization of the activities of the extension service providers is a way to avoid pollution of the agricultural innovation system in the state. Funding of extension services is another important factor affecting the effective implementation of the NEP. We therefore suggest that agricultural extension services can be funded through decentralization, involvement of farmers’ associations and nongovernmental organizations, contracting out of extension services, public-private partnerships, privatization, and embedding advisory services in other types of contracts. The results of this study further validate our approach of using multistakeholder engagement at the state level as an effective and insightful method of implementing the NEP at the state level.

× Growing agriculture remains important for countries like Nigeria where, despite economic transformation at sectoral levels, a significant share of employment still originates from the agricultural sector. The question has continued to be debated of whether increasing Public Expenditures on Agriculture (PEA) is the way to grow agriculture. The needed evidence-base for this debate, while gradually growing, has remained insufficient in African countries, including Nigeria. This has been particularly the case as regards to evidence on the effects of PEA at household levels. This study attempted to partially fill this gap, using state and local government area (LGA)-level PEA figures and household data in Nigeria. The findings suggest that PEA has positive effects on household-level agricultural outcomes in various dimensions, including overall production levels, profits, access to public extension services or subsidized fertilizer, as well as private investments and, in some cases, agricultural mechanization. These patterns generally underscore the hypothesis that increasing direct support to the agricultural sector is likely to have greater effects on agricultural outcomes, compared to alternative strategies of developing agriculture indirectly through the support of other social-sectors like education, health, social safety-nets, among others. Increasing PEA by increasing the agricultural share of public expenditures (PE), while keeping the overall size of PE constant, is found to be particularly effective, compared to alternative approaches of increasing the overall size of PE while keeping agricultural share unchanged. Such patterns may suggest that Ricardian Equivalence partly holds. Furthermore, different agricultural outcomes are found to respond to PEA from different sources (e.g., LGA or State), and types (e.g., recurrent or capital spending). Enhancing research capacity to identify appropriate sources and types of PEA for particular agricultural outcomes remains important.

× Agricultural development has long been considered an important driver of overall economic development in developing countries such as Nigeria. Whether increasing public expenditures on agriculture (PEA) can directly improve broad dimensions of household well-being has continued to be debated. In addition, there has been growing interest in the economic flexibility of households to switch between nonfarm and farming activities. Such flexibility can potentially enhance the resilience of households to shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic in today’s rapidly changing socioeconomic environments. Direct evidence of the impact of PEA on broad development outcomes is also important in informing regional initiatives aiming to use PEA as an instrument for overall food security enhancement and poverty reduction in Africa. Using state- and local government area (LGA)-level PEA figures and household data in Nigeria, this study aims to provide initial evidence at the household level in Nigeria.
The findings suggest that greater PEA shares have positive effects on various development outcomes at the household level, including consumption, poverty reduction, nonfarm capital investments, and household dietary diversity. The findings also suggest that greater PEA shares are likely to help farm households enhance their economic flexibility. These findings are consistent with the hypotheses of positive linkages between PEA and agricultural outcomes, and linkages between agricultural and nonagricultural outcomes, often advocated in the literature. PEA should be increased by increasing its share of total public expenditures through conscious efforts to reallocate existing resources, rather than trying to increase it by increasing the overall size of public expenditures. Furthermore, it remains important to identify the appropriate sources (for example, spending by LGA or state) and types of PEA (for example, recurrent or capital spending) for particular development outcomes.

× This paper combines pre-pandemic face-to-face survey data with follow up phone surveys collected in April-May 2020 to quantify the overall and differential impacts of COVID-19 on household food security, labor market participation and local food prices in Nigeria. We exploit spatial variation in exposure to COVID-19 related infections and lockdown measures along with temporal differences in our outcomes of interest using a difference-in-difference approach. We find that those households exposed to higher COVID-19 cases or mobility lockdowns experience a significant increase in measures of food insecurity. Examining possible transmission channels for this effect, we find that COVID-19 significantly reduces labor market participation and increases food prices. We find that impacts differ by economic activities and households. For instance, lockdown measures increased households' experience of food insecurity by 12 percentage points and reduced the probability of participation in non-farm business activities by 13 percentage points. These lockdown measures have smaller impacts on wage-related activities and farming activities. In terms of food security, households relying on non-farm businesses, poorer households, those with school-aged children, and those living in remote and conflicted-affected zones have experienced relatively larger deteriorations in food insecurity. These findings can help inform immediate and medium-term policy responses, including social protection policies aiming at ameliorating the impacts of the pandemic, as well as guide targeting strategies of governments and international donor agencies by identifying the most impacted sub-populations.

× The Government’s policy measures such as travel restrictions, lockdowns, and restrictions on economic and social activities, aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19, had affected the livelihoods and food security of smallholders in Nigeria. Using data collected from sample households from four Nigerian states, this study investigated the effects of COVID-19 pandemic policies on the incomes, employment, and food security situation of smallholder farming households. Results show that 88 percent of the households reported that they lost about 50 percent of their income due to the pandemic. As a result, about 66 percent of respondents reported they reduced food consumption. Travel and movement restrictions caused disruptions in agricultural activities and supply chains, as 29 percent of respondents reported planting fewer crops, 24 percent reduced cropping area, and 24 percent reduced fertilizer application. In terms of household’s food security, results show that COVID-19 significantly worsened the food security situation of many households in Nigeria, especially poorer households. More than 80 percent of respondents worried about not having enough food and 77 percent ate less food than they thought they should. Survey households also reported a significant reduction of consumption of proteins (eggs, meat, and dairy products) and fruits since the pandemic struck. Increases in food prices are felt by most households (85 percent). We suggest three key policy priorities: support vulnerable households to mitigate the impacts of income loss through cash transfer or improved credit access; interventions to improve agricultural inputs supply chains to ease the pandemic’s impact on agricultural production; and support food insecure households through direct food distribution.

× Aflatoxins affect the health of close to 70 percent of the population of the world through contaminated food. Smallholder farmers in developing countries can be especially hard hit, since they consume a high proportion of what they produce without a clear knowledge of the level of contamination their harvest might have. Climate change can cause dramatic shifts in the level of contamination and the frequency of that high levels of aflatoxins are found in harvested foods, particularly maize and groundnuts. In this paper, we introduce new software that is able to estimate potential field concentrations of aflatoxins based on weather, and then apply the software to the question of how projected changes in climate will affect the occurrence of aflatoxins in six countries. The analysis is done at a very fine geographic resolution so that problem areas within countries are also identified. For rainfed groundnuts, baseline period calculations using the module show fairly high frequency of expected contamination levels above 4 ppb for Burkina Faso and Niger (39 and 56 percent), while Nigeria has a more modest estimate of 14 percent. However, factoring in climate change, we find great variation in projections. One of the five climate models used in the analysis projects a much wetter region which serves to drive down aflatoxin concentrations steeply. However, others have lower or even negative projections for changes in rainfall and coupled with temperature increases (large in some climate models), three of the five climate models project rising aflatoxin concentrations. The frequency of projected contamination levels above 4 ppb in rainfed maize are high in the baseline for Niger, at 43 percent, though Niger grows little maize. Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Guatemala, and Honduras all have more modest projections in the baseline (8, 9, 4, 10), while Nepal has just a trace above 0. Aflatoxin concentrations are projected to rise with climate change by all 5 models for Nepal, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nigeria, but only rise for 3 models for Niger and 4 of the 5 models for Burkina Faso. We use regressions with weather variables on projected aflatoxin concentrations levels above 4 ppb to better understand critical levels of rainfall and temperature that could trigger local crises with aflatoxins in on-farm consumption of harvested foods. At the end of the paper, we examine why aflatoxin concentrations in Nepal as reported by the modeling results appear low despite aflatoxins being a significant issue for the country.

× Despite Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators’ (ASTI) global and regional visibility-and the use of its data for institutional decision-making by various national agricultural research institutes-the incorporation of ASTI evidence into national policymaking remains mostly ad hoc and is often indirect. Moreover, interventions to influence the uptake of ASTI data for this purpose have been limited. Given agricultural research’s important role in increasing agricultural productivity, economic growth, and poverty reduction, ASTI initiated a pilot study in three African countries (Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania) to develop a clearer understanding of how to promote the uptake of agricultural research evidence. The study focused on how evidence in general, and ASTI evidence in particular, could be more effectively integrated at the national level, particularly to promote the allocation of sustainable resources to agricultural research. The study was conducted in two stages: (1) the mapping of each country’s agricultural research interests and issues; and (2) identifying initial activities through which those interests offered opportunities both to fill research gaps and enhance the utility of agricultural research. Findings from the pilot studies point to opportunities for improving the availability, accessibility, appropriateness, and ownership of ASTI evidence to ensure that it contributes more effectively as a valuable resource for decision-making. Strong relationships and networks are needed to increase awareness of ASTI evidence and to institute linkages with official national data systems. Outcomes indicated both interest in the evidence and recognition of its merit. Greater outreach and connectivity with local institutions may be useful next steps. These findings lead to some general recommendations for improving the use of evidence, along with specific recommendations for the ASTI network approach moving forward. Shifting ownership of the data and systems to the regional and national levels-a key objective of the network approach-is a long-term undertaking. A transition period is needed, accompanied by a strategic plan to shift responsibility and action, first to the regional level and then to the national level where feasible.

× This study analyzed the financing gaps relative to production frontier of rice farmers in Southwestern Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to collect cross sectional data from 360 rice farmers selected from three States in the region. A Cobb-Douglas stochastic frontier and an adapted form of Harrod-Domar (HD) Growth model was employed to determine the financing gap required for the farmers to be at the frontier level. The empirical results of the frontier model show that quantity of labor, quantity of rice as planting material and herbicides were statistically significant in explaining the variations in the efficiency of rice production in Nigeria. However, age, gender, farming experience, household size, access to credit, access to information, adoption of improved variety and location of rice farmers as sources of technical inefficiencies. As revealed by the result of the HD growth model, the average amount of credit per season that farmers had access to was, ₦38,630.56 while the mean financing in the form of credit required to produce at the frontier level was ₦193,626.50, showing a financing shortfall of about 80%. As unravelled by the result of the study, it can thus be concluded that technical efficiency of rice farmers can be improved by improving access to timely credit and agricultural information for improving rice productivity. These findings suggest that filling the financing gap of smallholder rice farmers will improve rice productivity in Nigeria. The study, therefore, recommends that strengthening the existing technology by building farmers’ capacity on farm management practices would be surest means of improving rice productivity growth in Nigeria. This would not only contribute to the intensification of rice production in Nigeria to meet its increasing rice demand, but also improve rice farmers’ productivity and their households’ incomes.

× Since oil prices’ decline in 2014, agriculture has received renewed interest in Nigeria as a key sector for achieving sustainable growth and generating foreign exchange. One of the identified obstacles to achieving these goals is the need to improve agricultural productivity. Cowpea is one of the priority crops identified for productivity improvement. Currently cowpea yields are below 900 kg/ha, but it has been shown that with the right technology, these yields could potentially double. One of the main biotic constraints for cowpea is the infestation of the insect pod borer (Maruca Vitrata). No conventional variety has been developed to resist this pest, but with the use of biotechnology and the sustained collaboration of national and international partners over many years, there is now a genetically modified pod-borer-resistant (or more generally insect-resistant) cowpea. This paper estimates the potential economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the cost that Nigeria will incur if this adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Nigeria General Household Survey 2015–2016, estimations using these data, and other local sources. The estimations show that if the insect-resistant cowpea is planted in 2020, the net present-value benefits for producers and consumers would be around US$350 million, 70 percent of which would be accrued by producers. The distribution of benefits by region show that Sudan-Sahel will accrue the most benefits, given the relative concentration of cowpea in this region and the estimated higher adoption rates and yield changes. Almost half of producers’ total benefit will go to large producers, who represent only 20 percent of all cowpea producers, while small producers, representing half of all cowpea producers, will receive 24 percent of the benefit. Additionally, the analysis shows that a five-year regulatory delay will decrease the estimated benefits by around 35 percent. While Nigeria already has in place a competent biosafety system that will most likely ensure that these regulatory delays will not materialize, these estimations highlight the importance of having an evidence-based, efficient, predictable, and transparent regulatory system to ensure that the expected economic benefits are realized.

× This study demonstrates a method of providing ex-ante estimates of the distributional welfare effects of yield-increasing technology. We apply this approach to estimate the impact of a 10% increase in cassava yields in Nigeria. Using data from the 2012-13 Nigeria General Household Survey, we simulate the effect of the technology on each household in the sample (micro-simulation), taking into account both the yield increase and the resulting price reduction. The results suggest that the higher cassava yield would increase average household income by 0.2 percent, generate aggregate benefits of US$ 219 million per year, and reduce poverty by 0.2 percentage points, lifting 385 thousand people from poverty. Cassava growers who have net sales (11 percent of Nigerian households) would experience a reduction in income and an uptick in poverty due to the lower price. However, net-buying growers (10 percent) and consumers (47 percent) would benefit both in terms of income and poverty reduction. Smaller farms gain since many are net buyers who benefit from the lower price. Larger farms lose because many of them are net sellers who are adversely affected by the lower price. As most of the benefits of technology change are transferred to consumers (including many rural consumers), the cassava consumption patterns are at least as important as grower characteristics in determining the distributional impact of the technology. Applying this approach to all major crops in a country would help policy makers prioritize agricultural research across commodities to increase the poverty-reducing impact.

× This study investigates the determinants of farmers’ crop choice decisions, crop area diversification, and income diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa using nationally representative panel data for Nigeria and Uganda. We use both the shares of land and income of the major crop categories to measure farmers’ crop choice decisions.

× Demand for mechanization in Nigeria is growing in a fairly consistent way predicted by economic theories. The farming system has intensified and the use of animal traction has grown at a substantial rate. Demand side factors considerably explain the low adoptions of tractors in Nigeria. Where demand is sufficient for tractors, the private sector has emerged over time as a more efficient provider of hiring services (particularly farmer-tofarmer services) than the public sector. Conditions are consistent with the hypotheses that, because of generally low support for the agricultural sector in Nigeria in the past few decades, agricultural mechanization (tractor use in particular) has remained low despite the declining share of the workforce engaged in the agricultural sector. Agricultural transformation in the form of a declining agricultural labor force has happened partly through the growth in the oil industry since the 1970s. Instead of inducing further exit from farming, tractor adoptions in Nigeria might have helped those who have remained in farming to start expanding their production scale. A knowledge gap, however, still remains regarding the dominance of large tractors and the potential effects of tractor adoptions on smallholders who have yet to adopt them.

× The prevalence of overweight and obesity are increasing in many African countries and hence becoming regional public health challenges. We employ satellite-based night light intensity data as a proxy for urbanization to investigate the relationship between urbanization and women’s body weight. We use two rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey data from Nigeria. We employ both nonparametric and parametric estimation approaches that exploit both the cross-sectional and longitudinal variations in night light intensities.

× The role of agricultural productivity on non-farm economies in developing countries remains widely debated in the literature. A knowledge gap exists particularly regarding the heterogeneity among non-farm activities, in terms of sectoral orientations, factor intensities, and returns to factors, and the effects of agricultural productivity on these aspects. Using nationally representative household data from Nigeria, this study shows that higher agricultural productivity leads to generally greater capital and labor uses for non-farm activities by the households. This effect is particularly stronger for non-farm activities that are agriculture-oriented, as compared to those that are not agriculture-oriented. Furthermore, higher agricultural productivity raises returns to capital and labor for agriculture-oriented non-farm activities, potentially enhancing the contribution of non-farm economies to overall economic and income growth. By also increasing the labor use for both farming and non-farm activities, higher agricultural productivity is also found to increase overall rural employment. In obtaining these results, we use an agroclimatic similarity index to instrument household-level total factor productivity in agriculture.

× The study attempts to provide insights into the relationships among child nutritional status, welfare and health among households and how these have evolved in Nigeria using the 2003, 2008, and 2013 children recode data of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) for Nigeria. We proxy welfare by using the wealth index of the DHS that captures wealth over time. Descriptive statistics and multilevel mixed-effects probit analysis were used to ascertain the linkages among child nutritional status, wealth, and health. The descriptive results show that malnutrition among under-5 children varies across the different wealth index levels with 50% and 35% of the children under-5 in the bottom two quintiles of the wealth index stunted and underweight, respectively. Results of the mixed-effects probit model also show that a child from a household with lower welfare is more likely to be malnourished. Our results also show that between 2003 and 2013, there has been no significant change in the wealth index levels between the richest and the poorest households. The study concludes that a household welfare level that is above average motivates increased nutritional levels among women and children in households and reduces the incidence of disease. Policies and practices that would increase the welfare of households would also have impacts on the nutritional status of households, especially those in the northern parts of Nigeria.

× We present evidence on evolving dietary patterns in Nigeria using three waves and six total rounds of household consumption data from the Nigerian Living Standards and Measurement Surveys between the years of 2011 and 2016. First, following conventional definitions in the literature, we show that Nigeria has not shown any aggregate increase in consumption of highly processed foods over this time period, contrary to studies elsewhere in the region. In fact, consumption of highly processed foods at home has decreased, while food away consumed away from home has risen substantially. We then show that estimates of food expenditure elasticities of different food types are highly sensitive to different estimation approaches, raising concerns regarding the existing evidence base on food consumption patterns reliant on estimation of food expenditure elasticities. Different specifications can lead to broadly differing conclusions about whether highly processed food is either the most or least elastic food category. In our preferred specifications, we find that elasticity of demand for food away from home is highest for the relatively wealthy and in the urban South. Within households, elasticities are highest in times of scarcity, suggesting that households cut food away from home when resources are relatively scarce.

× Policy processes that design, develop, and implement sectoral policies often leave environmental considerations to a central environmental authority. As a result, the environmental implications and consequences of policies and programs, even when they are explicitly recognized as a part of the policies’ mandate, are often ignored at the time of implementation. This paper shows how individual, organizational, and systemic factors that enhance the abilities of policy actors are crucial for better integration of environmental considerations in policy processes. Using data collected in Nigeria, we develop empirical evidence on such factors so that the sectoral policy process can be improved for better environmental outcomes. The results indicate that explicit identification of environmental challenges, better collaboration and communication between researchers and policy makers, and a combination of the expertise of young analysts with the experience of senior policy makers can improve explicit consideration and follow-up of environmental issues in sectoral policy processes. The lessons from this paper are also applicable to the environmental considerations of the Agriculture Promotion Policy, the current policy road map for promotion of the agriculture sector in Nigeria, and to other developing countries’ attempts to implement such sectoral policies.

× Using farm household data from northern Nigeria as well as various spatial agroclimatic data, this study shows that the adoption of key mechanical technologies in Nigerian agriculture (animal traction, tractors, or both) has been high in areas that are more agroclimatically similar to the locations of agricultural research and development (R&D) stations, and this effect is heterogeneous, being particularly strong among relatively larger farms. Furthermore, such effects are likely to have been driven by the rise in returns on scale in the underlying production function caused by the adoption of these mechanical technologies. Agricultural mechanization, represented here as the switch from manual labor to animal traction and tractors, has been not only raising the average return on scale but also potentially magnifying the effects of productivity-enhancing public-sector R&D on spatial variations in agricultural productivity in countries like Nigeria.

× The question of how to promote structural transformation is central in fostering sustainable growth and poverty reduction in low-income countries in Africa. Following China’s domestic economic transformation and its growing outward investments in the developing world, we seek to understand how Chinese investment in Africa, particularly in manufacturing, may help to foster industrialization and in turn the structural transformation of African economies. We focus on Chinese investments and partnerships in Nigeria, a salient destination for Chinese manufacturing foreign direct investment in Africa, and examine the potential mechanisms of technology transfer that might catalyze such transformation. We find some small but significant cases of potential technology transfer, particularly through technical partnerships between firms. However, the future potential of such mechanisms will depend on the initiative of Nigerian actors to leverage Chinese investment to their interest.

× Youth employment in developing countries, particularly in connection with agricultural transformation policies in Africa south of the Sahara, has attracted a great deal of attention in recent years. The debate on youth unemployment globally—and specifically in Africa—hinges also on the differential pattern of structural change of economies, which works against the creation of “good” jobs. Although the proportion of unemployed youth in Nigeria has decreased in recent years, the percentage remains high. One recent government effort, the rather ambitious Agricultural Transformation Agenda, was geared (among other things) to promoting employment opportunities for youth in the agricultural sector. The youth employment issue is an important part of the current agricultural policy agenda of the new Federal Government of Nigeria. Against this background, the paper presents a comprehensive national and sectoral growth analysis of youth labor and employment trends in Nigeria, with a particular focus on agriculture and the rural nonfarm economy. It provides insights into the drivers of youth unemployment and underemployment, and discusses the prospects for job creation for youth in the agricultural and the rural non-farm sectors. The paper concludes with a discussion of prospects and policies for enhancing youth employment in the Nigerian agricultural sector, of particular interest to policymakers in Nigeria but also to those interested in youth unemployment in the developing world.

× This research has been undertaken to improve our understanding of stakeholders’ knowledge and perception about ecosystem services (ES), which provides a valuable means of gaining insight into the opportunities and constraints that face ES management in a multiuser landscape. Land use preferences are influenced by a variety of motives, attitudes, and values intrinsic to every individual’s decisionmaking. Knowledge can affect attitudes and behavioral intentions, and a positive attitude toward the environment has been found to predict conservation practices.

× In order to distinguish the impacts of technology adoption at the extensive margin from those at the intensive margin, in the empirical analyses we tested these hypotheses focusing on the differences among marginal adopters of tractor hiring services and nonadopters of similar characteristics. The results are two-fold: (1) adoptions patterns of tractor services are partly explained by basic factor endowments, suggesting that the market for custom hiring is in some way functioning efficiently in response to economic conditions; (2) adoptions are, however, affected by supply-side factors including the presence of large farm households (and thus potential tractor owners) within the district, and (3) per capita household expenditure level differs significantly between the marginal adopters and nonadopters of similar characteristics. This difference seems to arise from the adoption per se, rather than the intensity of adoption, which is consistent with the hypothesis of the imperfection of the custom hiring market.

× These theories of change were developed to help the HarvestPlus program deliver on its planned outcomes and impacts. HarvestPlus expects to contribute to the reduction in micronutrient deficiency among women and children in rural areas of developing countries through the breeding and dissemination of staple crop varieties with increased levels of key micronutrients. After ten years of breeding, economic, and nutrition research to develop and assess varieties and their potential impact on human nutritional outcomes, HarvestPlus is entering a third five-year phase focused on delivering micronutrient-rich varieties at scale in nine target countries. To support program design, implementation, and evaluation in the “delivery” phase of the HarvestPlus program (2014–2018), theories of change were developed for three crop-country combinations—maize in Zambia, beans in Rwanda, and cassava in Nigeria—to describe how HarvestPlus expects to contribute to the outcome of reducing inadequate micronutrient intake among women and children in different agricultural and socioeconomic contexts in which HarvestPlus works. The evidence supporting the assumptions and risks for each link in the pathway is summarized and assessed. The results show that for some parts of the impact pathway, outcomes and causal links are well defined and supported by evidence. In other areas, the program logic needs to be better articulated so that hypotheses can be formulated and evidence generated. Addressing these gaps through research, adaptations in delivery activities, and monitoring can increase the likelihood of achieving expected outcomes as well as improve the ability of HarvestPlus and other nutrition-sensitive agricultural programs to learn from current activities to inform a broader scaling up.

× Utilizing a spatial multi-market model for rice in Nigeria that explicitly takes into account the potential for smuggling, in this paper we analyze the welfare implications of alternative rice tariff rates given the government’s goals of spurring domestic production and reducing imports. Because smuggling occurs through the diversion of imports from Lagos, the official port of entry in the south, to the north, our modeling framework also captures the spatial effects of higher tariffs on changes in rural and urban prices, production and consumption, the flow of trade in rice, and welfare across different parts of the country. Results show that tariff rates that exceed about 40 percent introduce some smuggling of rice through the north when smuggling becomes more profitable than importing through official channels in the south. It is also at this tipping point that government tariff revenues are maximized. At higher tariff rates with smuggling, the south experiences greater welfare losses, especially in urban areas.

× First, this paper shows that rice varietal development in Nigeria has been lagging behind that of other developing countries in Asia and Latin America, due partly to insufficient investment in domestic rice R&D. The paper then illustrates using a household model simulation that impacts of certain policies, such as the seed subsidy, may be greater (smaller) if they are applied to good (poor) varieties. The paper concludes by discussing key policy implications and future research needs.

× This paper presents results of a small survey of tractor owner-operators conducted in Kaduna and Nasarawa states in Nigeria. Following are the key findings from simple descriptive statistics: (1) owner-operators who buy tractors from the private market or from private individuals are more efficient than those who receive tractors through government programs, providing services to a greater area at lower costs, including during the off-peak season; (2) providing access to a wider range of tractor horsepowers may improve efficiency over diverse soil types; (3) similar to some Asian countries in the 1980s, tractor operations are mostly concentrated in interviewees’ local home districts, though a fraction form groups and serve in distant locations to earn greater revenues.

× The level of public spending on agriculture in Nigeria remains low regardless of the indicator used. Agricultural spending as a share of total federal spending averaged 4.6 percent between 2008 and 2012 and has been trending downward precipitously. In contrast, Nigeria recorded an annual average agricultural growth rate of more than 6 percent between 2003 and 2010, and agricultural gross domestic product followed an increasing trend between 2008 and 2012. Budgetary allocation to agriculture compared with other key sectors is also low despite the sector’s role in the fight against poverty, hunger, and unemployment and in the pursuit of economic development. Public investment has been stifled by the lopsided manner in which national revenue is being allocated among the three tiers of government that have responsibility for agricultural development.

× In this paper, we briefly explore these three perspectives that can be useful in the future assessment of irrigation potential in Nigeria: (1) factor endowments, (2) challenges inherent in the tropics, and (3) experiences in a favorable area within Nigeria.

× This study employs primary data collected through structured questionnaires from 300 agrodealers and uses a Tobit type-II model for the analysis. The results show that interest rate, debt, value of asset, membership of trading association, and source of credit are major determinants of loan demand. Agrodealers need to organize themselves into input trading associations to enhance their creditworthiness and to unleash the inherent social capital and information advantages for improved agrodealership financing.

× To this end, this study seeks to (1) examine the nature of risks facing small-scale farmer-borrowers in Nigeria, (2) analyze the demand for agricultural credit by farmers and highlight the key determinants of this demand, (3) ascertain the extent to which farmers are credit rationed and the factors influencing the emerging rationing scenarios, and (4) suggest policy measures to address the problem of agricultural credit rationing and enhance the demand for credit. The study employs primary data obtained from 1,200 small-scale farmers through a survey conducted in 2013 across the six geopolitical zones of the country. Methodologically, the study extends the analysis of credit rationing beyond quantity rationing and presents explicit econometric models for analyzing the determinants of three types of credit rationing: quantity rationing, risk rationing, and price rationing.

× While there is growing evidence of the impact of targeted subsidies on private input demand, as far as we are aware no empirical studies have examined the spillover effects of targeted subsidies for just one input on the use of other complementary inputs with which there is low substitutability. Consequently, this study begins to fill this gap by exploring the effect of increasing access to subsidized fertilizer on farmers’ use of improved seed in Nigeria.

× This report summarizes the typology of farm households and irrigators in Nigeria. We apply a cluster analysis method to the Living Standard Measurement Survey (LSMS)—Integrated Survey on Agriculture data and various secondary data. We also compare the costs and inputs used across different irrigation crops, as reported in Nigeria. Findings indicate that the three major irrigation systems in Nigeria are (1) labor-intensive diverted stream irrigation of rice, (2) supplementary irrigation of coarse grains and legumes using groundwater, and (3) dry season irrigation of vegetables.

× The Nigerian Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA) provides an in-depth assessment of the food security situation within Nigeria. This is very important as it equips policymakers with timely and relevant information that will aid the targeting of interventions.

× Anecdotal evidence indicates labor costs for farming in Nigeria are rising while levels of mechanization remain low. Information is scarce regarding the types of farm households that use mechanization in Nigeria and the potential demand for mechanization services among farmers. We apply cluster analysis to data from the Living Standards Measurement Study—Integrated Surveys on Agriculture project in Nigeria to identify associations between mechanization and farm household types. We then simulate an agricultural household model to assess the potential demand for mechanization services in southern Nigeria.

× The principal objective of this paper is to review and assess the policy implications and potential for Nigeria to transform its domestic rice sector and become more competitive with imports in order to ultimately displace them over time. Preliminary results show that import restrictions alone will not be effective at achieving self-sufficiency in rice production. While there is a huge potential to increase the competitiveness of local rice, even this will not be sufficient to displace imports in the short and medium term. This is especially true so long local varieties cannot compete on quality and post-harvest processes remain inadequate for milling, packaging, and branding.

× Though input vouchers are being publicized as a mechanism to simultaneously target subsidies and develop demand in private markets, limited empirical evidence of their effect on private input demand exists. Few empirical studies, if any, exist on the effect of targeted subsidies on private input demand in Nigeria or West Africa . Consequently this study begins to fill this gap by estimating the effect of a targeted input subsidy on farmer participation in the private fertilizer market in Nigeria. Using a double hurdle model and a control function approach, this study explores the effect of increasing access to subsidized fertilizer on farmer participation in the private fertilizer market in Kano, Nigeria. The study finds evidence that farmers who received subsidized fertilizer in 2009 tended to have less assets than their counterparts who did not. Within this context, although receiving subsidized fertilizer did not appear to increase the probability of participating in the private fertilizer market, it did increase the quantity of fertilizer purchased from the private market once the decision to participate had been made. It appears that one benefit of the voucher program was that it developed links between rural farmers and input suppliers. Furthermore, where private fertilizer markets are weak, results indicate that there could be significant gains from the temporary use of voucher programs to create links between input suppliers and farmers.

× Farmer groups are considered potentially effective mechanisms to increase farmer livelihood by reducing information asymmetries and transaction costs. In many countries, farmers are coordinated in groups for participation in poverty reduction programs. This is common practice in many input voucher programs in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the effect of farmer groups on certain outcomes such as price received and marketing has been studied, few studies, if any, have examined the effect of intragroup dynamics on farmer experience of input voucher programs. Consequently, this research uses a fertilizer voucher scheme in Nigeria to explore whether different methods of distributing fertilizer through farmer groups can affect an intervention’s ability to increase farmer access to agricultural inputs. To receive a fertilizer voucher in a pilot targeted subsidy program in Nigeria, all farmers were required to be members of an organized group. However, for fertilizer distribution among one set of participants, individual farmers were given their allotted share directly, whereas farmers in the other set received their fertilizer indirectly through a group representative.

× Onset risk, the uncertainty in the onset of rainy season, is an important element of weather risk for African farmers with little access to formal insurance who engage in traditional rainfed farming. A knowledge gap still exists empirically on how onset risk may affect the investment decisions of these farmers. In particular, farm productivity in Africa still depends on substantial labor inputs at the onset of the rainy season, sometimes involving seasonal migration to rural areas. With credit and insurance market failure, poor access to weather-related information, and high labor mobility costs, high and increasing onset risk may affect farmers’ demand for farm mechanization. We test this hypothesis by investigating the effect of onset risk on farmers’ investment in draft animals in northern and central Nigeria. We use the example of a public project providing farmers with financial support for the acquisition of productive assets. We calculate the onset of the rainy season using daily rainfall data in various locations across Nigeria and identify locations that have experienced increasing, decreasing, or constant onset risk in the past few decades. We then exploit the panel structure of our dataset and employ stratified propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated, differentiated by the onset risk and its change. The results support our hypothesis. Farmers in areas with higher, increasing, or constant onset risk were more likely to invest in draft animals, and such effects are clearer among larger-scale farmers. Linkages are also clearer with onset risk compared to annual rainfall risk.

× Though input vouchers are increasingly being used as a mechanism to target subsidies in developing countries, limited empirical evidence of their performance relative to other distribution mechanisms exist. Consequently this study contributes to this scarce literature by comparing an input voucher program piloted in Nigeria in 2009 to the previous government led distribution mechanism. Input purchase experiences are compared when subsidized fertilizer was distributed through a voucher program or by the government. Using propensity score matching techniques, the study finds that voucher program participants received more bags of subsidized fertilizer than nonparticipants and paid a price significantly lower than the market price. However, they received their fertilizer later than nonparticipants and where significant had more underweight bags than nonparticipants. Given the costs associated with voucher programs, this study demonstrates when the distribution of subsidized fertilizer via vouchers improved farmers’ timely access to good and more affordable fertilizer.

× In this paper we attempt to bridge the resilience school of thought and incentive compatibility in livestock disease control policies through a pilot choice experiment study conducted on 104 farm households in the Nasarawa state of Nigeria. The aim of this study was to shed light on farm households’ valuation of various compensation plan attributes and trade-offs among these attributes. In the experiment presented here, compensation plan was defined broadly to include not just the traditional attributes, such as the number of days it takes to receive the payment, the compensation rate, and the method of payment, but also more diverse interventions, such as training in biosecurity measures and access to bank loans, which are expected to have longer-term impacts on households’ livelihood outcomes. We analyzed the data using various discrete choice models, the best-fitting of which was the random parameter (or mixed) logit model with interactions, which enabled us to capture both unobserved and observed heterogeneity in farm households’ preferences for the compensation plan attributes. The results reveal that overall, study households preferred compensation plans that made payment in fewer days, provided facilitated credit access, and offered biosecurity training. Households with better-educated heads and those with lower income levels valued compensation plans that provided credit access and biosecurity training the most. These findings are expected to inform the design of efficient, effective, equitable, and targeted compensation policies, which could not only reduce the livestock disease risk but also improve the resilience of poor farm households’ livelihoods against future poultry-related or other idiosyncratic shocks.

× This study compares the impacts of integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) on crop production with use of either mineral fertilizer or organic manure alone. We also investigate the conditions under which .ISFM technology has greater beneficial effects on yields and the factors constraining its uptake. To answer these questions, the study uses a cross-sectional, plot-level data set collected in Nigeria by the International Food Policy Research Institute and the World Bank in 2009. Using both quasi experimental matching estimators and multivariate regression approaches, it finds that overall ISFM has robustly significant positive effects on crop production. The study also finds that ISFM positively affects crop production on plots with customary tenure, sandy soils, and clay soils—conditions that are normally perceived to be less favorable for crop production. The results also show ISFM to be more effective on plots with mild erosion or no erosion. On the constraints, we find that households with limited livestock, equipment, labor, and land are less likely to use ISFM technology, and the extension services currently do not seem to be disseminating ISFM. This evidence provides strong support for efforts to promote ISFM in Nigeria and in other regions with comparable conditions, but adequate attention must be paid to the biophysical conditions of the plots and the household’s access to labor endowments, livestock, equipment, and tenure conditions if this technology is to be scaled up and more widely used in Sub-Saharan Africa.

× Mechanization is a key to agricultural productivity growth in developing countries. Farm implements, ranging from hand tools to draft animals to milling machines to power tillers and tractors, often play complementary roles with each other, and supporting adoption of certain farm implements may also speed up adoption of others. In the absence of credit, insurance, or information, however, such complementarity may be reduced. This study analyzes how the ownership of particular farm implements by Nigerian farmers affected their investment in other farm implements under a project that provided matching grants for the acquisition of various types of farm implements. We found that ownership of certain farm implements increased farmers’ investment in the same implements but reduced their investment in other, potentially complementary, implements. We argue that these effects may be partly explained by high operating and maintenance costs associated with the use of farm equipment in these countries. Ownership of farm equipment may provide a good indicator of farmers’ potential willingness to invest in the same of different farm equipment. At the same time, a public project supporting farmers’ investment in farm equipment should provide financial support not only for the acquisition of farm implements but also for their operation and maintenance.

× This study uses an economy-wide, dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to analyze the ability of growth in various agricultural subsectors to accelerate overall economic growth and reduce poverty in Nigeria over the next years (2009-17). In addition, econometric methods are used to assess growth requirements in agricultural public spending and the relationship between public services and farmers' use of modern technology. The DCGE model results show that if certain agricultural subsectors can reach the growth targets set by the Nigerian government, the country will see 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture and 8.0 percent growth of GDP over the next years. The national poverty rate will fall to 30.8 percent by 2017, more than halving the 1996 poverty rate of 65.6 percent and thereby accomplishing the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). This report emphasizes that in designing an agricultural strategy and prioritizing growth, it is important to consider the following four factors at the subsectoral level: (i) the size of a given subsector in the economy; (ii) the growth-multiplier effects occurring through linkages of the subsector with the rest of the economy; (iii) the subsector-led poverty reduction-growth elasticity; and (iv) the market opportunities and price effects for individual agricultural products. In analyzing the public investments that would be required to support a 9.5 percent annual growth in agriculture, this study first estimates the growth elasticity of public investments using historical spending and agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) growth data. The results show that a 1 percent increase in agricultural spending is associated with a 0.24 percent annual increase in agricultural TFP. With such low elasticity, agricultural investments must grow at 23.8 percent annually to support a 9.5 percent increase in agriculture. However, if the spending efficiency can be improved by 70 percent, the required agricultural investment growth becomes 13.6 percent per year. The study also finds that investments outside agriculture benefit growth in the agricultural sector. Thus, assessments of required growth in agricultural spending should include the indirect effects of nonagricultural investments and emphasize the importance of improving the efficiency of agricultural investments. To further show that efficiency in agricultural spending is critically important to agricultural growth, this study utilizes household-level data to empirically show that access to agricultural services has a significantly positive effect on the use of modern agricultural inputs.

× Despite the fact that nonincome dimensions of well-being such as nutrition and health are now placed on the global development agenda, substantial gaps remain in our knowledge about patterns and trends in nutrition inequalities in many developing countries. The main objective of this paper is to document a useful starting point for understanding the determinants of inequalities in nutritional status and provide some understanding of the proximate causes of inequalities in nutritional status as well as the factors responsible for inequalities in health and nutritional status of children and women in the policy debate. Using Nigeria as a case study and using data from the Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, this paper measures and decomposes the patterns and trends of inequalities in child and maternal nutritional status in Nigeria. In particular, the paper decomposes observed nutritional inequalities into inequalities between and within demographic and socioeconomic groups to ascertain the relative contributions of the between-groups and within-group components of inequalities. To identify the most vulnerable groups in Nigeria, the paper also explores the prevalence of child and maternal malnutrition in Nigeria. The paper finds that within-group inequalities are the sources of most inequalities in the nutritional status of children and women in Nigeria. Inequalities between demographic and socioeconomic groups are less important. Child and maternal malnutrition are concentrated among the least educated households, the rural population, the north (in particular its Hausa ethnic group), and those who drink water from public wells. Malnutrition in Nigeria is a vicious cycle in that child malnutrition can be partly traced back to low birth weight (and therefore to maternal malnutrition). To interrupt this vicious cycle, the Nigerian government should take targeted and concerted actions that focus attention on addressing within-group inequalities. Intervention in the areas of primary healthcare, home-based caring practices, access to basic services (such as safe drinking water and good sanitation), education of women, and direct nutritional interventions for malnourished children seem the most appropriate.

× We investigate the extent in which northern Nigerian households engage in internal migration to insure against ex ante and ex post agricultural risk due to weather-related variability and shocks. We use data on the migration patterns of individuals over a 20-year period and temperature degree-days to identify agricultural risk. Controlling for ex ante and ex post risk, we find that households with higher ex ante risk are more likely to send migrants. Households facing hot shocks before the migrant’s move tend to keep their male migrants in closer proximity. These findings suggest that households use migration as a risk management strategy in response to both ex ante and ex post risk, but that migration responses are gender-specific. These findings have implications not only for understanding the insurance motives of households, but also potential policy responses tied to climatic warming.

× How research contributes to the policy process in developing countries in general, and in Nigeria more specifically, is not well understood. Yet such understanding is a critical part of doing effective policy research. This has become especially critical for the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), which has set up a country office for policy research in Nigeria. A key challenge for IFPRI, and other research organizations in the country, is how to better integrate research results into policy and communicate research results to Nigerian policymakers. To gain some useful insights into how research does, or does not, influence policy in Nigeria, we examined a case involving the process leading up to the adoption in 2006 of Nigeria's National Fertilizer Policy. Rather than focusing on how research influences policy in general, examining a particular policy allowed us to trace the actual policy process that took place, the actors involved, and the types of links and interactions between them. A diverse group of stakeholders (government, donors, the research community, farmer organizations, and the private sector) undoubtedly debated the content of the fertilizer policy. Thus, its successful formulation and adoption offered a useful opportunity to examine how it came about in spite of competing vested interests (both for and against it) and what role, if any, research-based information played in developing it. The policy covered some highly contentious political issues, most prominently the issue of privatization of the fertilizer sector in place of the large-scale and long-standing subsidy program. How the actors engaged and appeased people with vested interests who would normally oppose the policy, and the degree to which research-based information played a role in policy development, is of interest to IFPRI and others engaged in policy research. To study the policy process that led to the formulation and adoption of the National Fertilizer Policy, we used a network-mapping tool, Net-Map. Drawing on social network approaches, the tool is particularly suitable since it can help highlight the actors and formal and informal interactions involved in the policy process, as well as examine the flows of information from researchers to help determine the pathways of research-based information. In support of the Net-Map method, we also undertook a content analysis of published and grey literature on fertilizer policies in Nigeria in the years prior to the passing of the fertilizer bill. This provided a context for the knowledge-based and policy discussions, who was involved in them, and who funded or drove them.

× We investigate gender differences in agricultural productivity using data collected in 2005 from Nigeria and in 2003 from Uganda. Results indicate that lower productivity is persistent from female-owned plots and female-headed households, accounting for a range of socioeconomic variables, agricultural inputs, and crop choices using multivariate Tobit models. These results are robust to the inclusion of household-level unobservables. However, productivity differences depend on the type of gender indicator used, crop-specific samples, agroecological region, and inclusion of biophysical characteristics. More nuanced gender data collection and analysis in agricultural research spanning diverse regions are encouraged to identify interventions that will increase productivity and program effectiveness for male and female farmers.

× Fertilizer consumption rates in Nigeria remains among the lowest in the world despite decades of aggressive subsidization. The extension service in Nigeria has a double-edged impact on fertilizer use in the country; not only can their activities increase farmers' demand for fertilizer, but also the organizational framework of the service, Agricultural Development Programs, is the major source of fertilizer for farmers. To provide insights on the reasons for the low fertilizer use in Nigeria, this paper presents an analysis of the extension service as well as some perspectives of village extension agents. We find that the reach of the extension service is severely limited by low staff. The main technology transmitted is the use of improved seeds. Fertilizer technology is seldom transmitted and very rarely is irrigation taught. Furthermore, extension agents are found to have gaps in their knowledge of fertilizer technology. Extension agents routinely distribute agricultural inputs and many see their advisory role as secondary to this function. Extension agents identified the primary constraint to fertilizer use in Nigeria as the physical absence of the product at the time that it is needed, rather than lack of affordability or farmers' lack of knowledge about the benefits or the use of fertilizer.

× In this paper we investigate the role of poultry in households' livelihoods portfolios and the impact of supply-and-demand shocks that may be caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on households' various livelihoods outcomes in four Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The study countries include Ethiopia and Kenya in East Africa and Ghana and Nigeria in West Africa. These countries represent a spectrum of SSA countries regarding disease status, means of disease spread, and the role of the poultry sector in the economy. By using nationally representative household-level secondary data and discrete choice methods (probit and zero-inflated negative binomial models), we profile the household, farm, and regional characteristics of those households that are most likely to keep poultry and those households that are most likely to be engaged in intensive poultry production (that is, to keep larger household flocks). We estimate the ex ante impact of HPAI outbreaks and scares/threats on livelihoods outcomes by using the propensity score matching approach. The results of this study generate valuable information regarding the role of poultry in the livelihoods of small-scale poultry-producing households and the livelihoods impacts of HPAI-induced supply-and-demand shocks. Such information is critical for the design of targeted, and hence effective, HPAI control and mitigation policies.

× The majority of African farmers lack the means to mitigate the impact of risks such as those associated with rainfall and commodity prices. Because most farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa are risk-averse, they may be willing to invest in productive assets that can mitigate the impacts of such risks if their capital constraints are relaxed through external financial assistance. We test this hypothesis using panel data on Nigerian farmers' investment behaviors collected during the Second National Fadama Development Program (Fadama II), which provided financial assistance to farmers in obtaining various productive assets, as well as historical data on rainfall and white gari price in various locations in Nigeria. The results support the hypothesis. Under the Fadama II, farmers facing higher rainfall risk (coefficient of variation in annual rainfall) were more likely to invest in irrigation pumps that can mitigate the impact of rainfall risk, and those facing higher risks on white gari price were more likely to invest in milling machines that enable them to process cassava into flour instead of gari.

× This paper examines household asset dynamics and gender-differentiated asset inequality over a 20-year period (1988-2008) in northern Nigeria. We show that the initial endowments of both household capital and livestock holdings are inconsistent with the poverty trap hypothesis but that tracking rules for households in panel surveys may lead to differences in empirical results on poverty traps. We also investigate whether initial household endowments contributed to gender-differentiated future asset levels and asset inequality. Initial livestock holdings have an effect on women's future livestock holdings but not on their livestock shares within the household, as the effect of initial livestock holdings on men's future livestock levels was much greater than its effect on women's levels. The mechanism through which asset levels differed was related to the relative prices of the assets in gender-differentiated asset portfolios. Men, who primarily held larger livestock with larger unit values, benefited from large price increases in high-value livestock, while women held lower-value livestock. These price fluctuations reinforced gender asset inequality within households for both types of assets considered.

× Strong agricultural research and development (R&D) is crucial for improving agricultural productivity and efficiency, which in turn both lead to agricultural development, food security, and poverty reduction. However, several studies have shown that in many developing countries, in particular in sub-Saharan Africa, there is persistent underinvestment in R&D and weak research capacity, both of which continue to undermine agricultural productivity and growth in these countries.

× Using a large household survey data, this study examines the impact of government involvement in agricultural service provision on the use of modern inputs by farmers in Nigeria. The empirical methodology used in this study is based on the multilevel (nested) mixed effects estimator and controls for systematic differences and unobserved heterogeneity across sub-national governments. The empirical findings suggest that government involvement in agricultural service provision positively influences the farmers� input use. However, wealthier farmers are more likely than poor farmers to benefit from such services. The likelihood of farmers� input use significantly varies across states and local government areas. Another important finding indicates that the impact of access to all-season roads on input use is heterogeneous across states; it is insignificant in states where the overall likelihood of fertilizer use is relatively high, but becomes significant and positive in states where the overall likelihood of fertilizer use is relatively low.

× It has often been argued that new agricultural technologies lead to poverty reduction. This paper argues that any changes in poverty situation attributed to those who adopt new agricultural technology (treatment group) without a counterfactual comparison of carefully selected nonadopters (control group) are likely to be questionable. The paper estimates the effects of new agricultural technology on poverty reduction by employing the “double difference” method on data collected in rural Nigeria. Seeing the agricultural technology–poverty linkage through the lenses of adopters and nonadopters of such new technology provides understanding of the relationship between agricultural technology and poverty. The paper finds that differences in poverty status between adopters and nonadopters of new agricultural technologies (a combination of tube wells and pumps) introduced in rural Nigeria in the late 1980s and early 1990s are alarmingly modest. The paper concludes that new agricultural technology would not expressly lead to poverty reduction in poor countries. The exact channels through which new agricultural technology impact poverty outcomes need to be further explored.

× This paper investigates the contribution of rural non-farm income to income inequality by examining the contribution of specific income sources (farm income from irrigated agriculture, farm income from rainfed agriculture and non-farm income) to income inequality in Nigeria. The results reveal the relative importance of specific income sources to income inequality and the various determinants of income inequality in rural Nigeria. Although non-farm income is distributed more unequally than incomes from the other two sources, it contributes least to overall income inequality. Farm income from irrigated agriculture represents the most important inequality-increasing source of income.

× The community-driven development (CDD) approach has become increasingly popular because of its potential to develop projects that are sustainable, are responsive to local priorities, empower local communities, and more effectively target poor and vulnerable groups. The purpose of this study is to assess the impacts of Fadama II, which is a CDD project and the largest agricultural project in Nigeria. This study used propensity score matching (PSM) to select 1728 comparable project beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. The study also used double difference methods to compare the impact indicators. Our results show that Fadama II project succeeded in targeting the poor and women farmers in its productive asset acquisition component. Participation in the project also increased the income of beneficiaries by about 60 percent, which is well above the targeted increase of only 20 percent in the six year period of the project. Regarding rural infrastructure investments, we found that the Fadama II project had positive near-term impacts on beneficiaries� access to markets and transportation costs, although the study revealed surprising effects on beneficiaries� commercial behavior and statistically insignificant impacts on nonfarm activities. We also observed that Fadama II increased the demand for postharvest handling technologies but did not have a significant impact on the demand for financial management and market information. Fadama II reduced the demand for soil fertility management technologies. The decline likely reflects the project�s focus on providing postproduction advisory services and suggests the need for the project to increase its support for soil fertility management and thus limit the potential for land degradation resulting from increased agricultural productivity. Overall, the Fadama II project has achieved its goal of increasing the incomes of the beneficiaries in the first year of its operation. The project has also succeeded in targeting the poor and vulnerable in its productive-asset component, even though that did not appear to increase significantly short-term household incomes among the poorest asset tercile. The unique feature that could have contributed to the significant impact of the project in a short time is its broad-based approach, which addresses the major constraints limiting the success of CDD projects that address only one or two constraints. This has implications on planning poverty reduction efforts in low-income countries. Given that the poor face numerous constraints, a CDD project that simultaneously addresses many constraints will likely build synergies that will lead to larger impacts than will a project that addresses only one or two constraints. This suggests the need for the government and donors to pool resources and initiate multipronged CDD projects rather than many isolated projects.--Author's Abstract

× Public spending on agriculture in Nigeria is exceedingly low. Less than 2 percent of total federal expenditure was allotted to agriculture during 2001 to 2005, far lower than spending in other key sectors such as education, health, and water. This spending contrasts dramatically with the sector's importance in the Nigerian economy and the policy emphasis on diversifying away from oil, and falls well below the 10 percent goal set by African leaders in the 2003 Maputo agreement. Nigeria also falls far behind in agricultural expenditure by international standards, even when accounting for the relationship between agricultural expenditures and national income. The spending that is extant is highly concentrated in a few areas. Three out of 179 programs account for more than 81 percent of federal capital spending, of which nearly three-quarters go to government purchase of agricultural inputs and agricultural outputs alone. The analysis finds that many of the Presidential Initiatives-which differ greatly in target crops, technologies, research, seed multiplication, and distribution-have identical budgetary provisions. This pattern suggests that the needs assessment and costing for these initiatives may have been inadequate, and that decisions may have been based on political considerations rather than economic assessment. Budget execution is also poor. The Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) best practice standard for budget execution is no more than 3 percent discrepancy between budgeted and actual expenditures. In contrast, during the period covered by the study, the Nigerian federal budget execution averaged only 79 percent, meaning 21 percent of the approved budget was never spent. Budget execution at the state and local levels was even less impressive, ranging from 71 percent to 44 percent. However, other sectors showed similar low levels of budget execution, suggesting that the problem is a general one going beyond agriculture. There is an urgent need to improve internal systems for tracking, recording, and disseminating information about public spending in the agriculture sector. Consolidated and up-to-date expenditure data are not available within the Ministry of Agriculture, not even for its own use. Without this information, authorities cannot undertake empirically-based policy analysis, program planning, and impact assessment. There is also a need for clarification of the roles of the three tiers of government in agricultural services delivery. This is important to reduce overlaps and gaps in agricultural interventions and improve efficiency and effectiveness of public investments and service delivery in the sector. Finally, applied research is needed to address critical knowledge gaps in several areas: (i) Spending on fertilizer programs makes up a sizeable portion of overall agricultural spending in Nigeria, yet very little is known about the impact of this spending. (ii) To date, only a small portion of the national grain storage system has been constructed, but if the entire network is completed as planned, the cost will be enormous. Supporting even the current modest level of grain marketing activities is consuming significant amounts of public resources. Is an investment on this order of magnitude desirable? What has been the impact of these investments? (iii) There is a need for an analytical study focusing on the economics of the National Special Program for Food Security (NSPFS). The total cost of NSPFS II is estimated at US$364 million. Detailed financial information about the NSPFS is not publicly available, however, making it difficult to assess whether the considerable investment in NSPFS I generated attractive returns, and whether NSPFS II merits support as currently designed. A rigorous external evaluation is needed to assess the performance of NPSFS and generate information that could be used to make design adjustments. --Authors' Abstract

× "We examine the effect of trade protection rates on evasion in three African countries: Kenya, Mauritius, and Nigeria. In capturing the effect of trade protection on tariff evasion, we use a much improved measure of trade protection from MacMAP 2001 and 2004. For two of these countries, the MacMAP data set allows the novelty of using variation in trade protection across product, time, and trading partners, leading to significantly refined estimates of evasion elasticity relative to existing studies on tariff evasion. We find a positive elasticity of evasion with respect to tariffs in all three countries. Further, our results match the rankings of countries in terms of institutional quality. Greater responsiveness of evasion to the level of tariffs is established in Nigeria (comparatively weak institutional quality) vis-à-vis Kenya, and in Kenya vis-à-vis Mauritius (comparatively good institutional quality). This pattern is preserved even when focusing on the same set of trading partners and the same set of imported products for the three countries. This result is robust to controlling for protection on related products (that create incentives/opportunities for evasion) and also for degree of differentiation of the product in question (characteristics that determine the ease of detection of evasion)." --from authors' abstract